الجمعة، 29 مارس 2013

GBP/USD H4 Update

As long as brown tren line is not broken this pair can still test Weekly Pivot and if it is broken  it can go up to grey SUPPLY area.
===================================================================
Dopóty brązowa linia trendu nie zostanie przebita, kabel w dalszym ciągu może przetestować Weekly Pivot a jeśli ten zostanie przebity to nawet szarą strefę PODAŻY.

Seb

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الأربعاء، 27 مارس 2013

Crude Oil H4 Update


This is a Swing Trade recomendaion that have been issued on VIP Service Blog.


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Seb



EUR/AUD H1 Update

This is Expanding Ending Diagonal Count - and it is missing one more wave to the downside to finish the cycle. Please notice the Bullish Divergence.

Seb

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EUR/JPY H1 Update

This morning chart of EUR/JPY H1 posted on VIP Service blog.

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BEFORE AND AFTER:



EUR/USD Daily Update

Gann Fan chart shows the possible support for this pair is @ 1.2400 area if 1.2830 is broken.

Elliott Wave Count shows five wave progression from 1.3708 top has been finished (wave 1) and now choppy corrective patern has ben made as well (wave 2).Currently wave 1 of lesser degree has been made and correction in wave 2  is about to end.

Seb

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الثلاثاء، 26 مارس 2013

EUR-GBP H4 Update

It looks like the correction is over now and only a break below the 0.8456 level would invalid the count.
Bulls need an impulsive wave development to the upside , ideally starting with trend line break.
=======================================================================
Wyglada na to że korekta sie skończyła i tylko przebicie poziomu 0.8456 może zanegować układ fal.
Byki potrzebują impulsywnego przebicia linii trendu by kontynuować wzrosty.

Seb


WIG20 Futures H4 Update


The level of 2310 - 2318 is very important support for bulls.
=================================================================
Poziom 2310 - 2318 jest ważnym wsparciem dla byków.

Seb
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SP500 H1 Update

Due to wave (ii) has entered the area of wave (i) the previous count has been invalidated. This count is really a Triangle wave 4 count now and I'm waiting for the last breakout to the upside.
=======================================================================
Poprzedni licznik  spadkowy został unieważniony ze względu na nakładanie sie fali (i) z (ii). Obecny licznik jest w sumie licznikem Trójkąta fali 4 i obecnie czekam na  wybicie górą.

Seb

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الجمعة، 22 مارس 2013

Signal Service Trading Results 18-22.03.2013

Trading Results:


Week from 20Dec - 30Dec:               +145pips
Weeks from 31Dec - 11Jan:              +543 pips
Week from  14Jan - 18 Jan                +208pips
Week from 21Jan - 25Jan                 +215pips
Week from 28Jan - 1Feb                  +128pips( +10 Dax points + 8$ on Gold)
Week from 04Feb-08Feb                   +93pips  
Weeks From 11.02- 22.02.2013          +138pips,(+$66 on Gold, -10Dax  points)
Week from 25.02 - 01.03. 2013           +158pisps in scalp, +180pips in swing, -3 SP500 points
Week from 04.03 - 08.03. 2013           +150pips in scalp,   +50pips in swing
Week from 10.03 - 15.03.2013            +40pips in scalp,      -40pips in swing ,  -$2 on Gold
Week from 18.03 - 22.03.2013             +101pips in scalp, +5points on SP500
 
Grand Total since 20.12.2012               +2115pips! 
                                                              0 DAX Points
                                                               +2 SP500 points 
                                                               +$84 Gold

Scalp trade is min:1 lot.
Swing Trade is min: 0,1lot.
Leverage is 200:1

الخميس، 21 مارس 2013

USD/JPY H1 Update

Brown trend line breakout might means that the price could be heading lower to complete the corrective cycle. Only a sustained breakout back above the trendline and then above WR1 will put this bearish outlook into question.
======================================================================
Brązowa linia trendu została przebita i obecnie może to oznaczać zę cena zejdzie niżej. Tylko powrotne  przebicie linii trendu  a następnie WR1 stawia ten układ fal pod znakiem zapytania.

Seb

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الأربعاء، 20 مارس 2013

EUR/JPY H1 Update

This is wave progression that have been sent to the clients of VIP Service.

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الثلاثاء، 19 مارس 2013

Precious metal commentary: propaganda, porn or entertainment?

I'm still alive. Haven't blogged for a while due to a lot of work on, primarily on a few Perth Mint Depository related business initiatives as well as trying to get up a research section on our perthmint.com.au site.

One of the more radical blogs I follow is Unqualified Reservations. His recent post on propaganda is a worthwhile read for those interested in social media manipulation and the state of precious metal "commentary".

Below is a quote from a book by Jacques Ellul that Unqualified Reservations refers to. I've edited it and changed a few words to make it read like it applies to precious metals:

Investors are faced with choices and decisions which demand maturity, knowledge, and a range of information which they do not and cannot have. The individual wishes to be conversant with economics and precious metal markets. He wants to form an opinion on them. But in reality he can't. He is caught between his desire and his inability, which he refuses to accept.

For no investor will believe that he is unable to have opinions. Public opinion surveys always reveal that people have opinions even on the most complicated questions, except for a small minority (usually the most informed and those who have reflected most). The majority prefers expressing stupidities to not expressing opinion: this gives them the feeling of participation. For this they need simple thoughts, elementary explanations, a "key" that will permit them to take a position, and even ready-made opinions.

As most investors have the desire and at the same time the incapacity to participate, they are ready to accept a propaganda that will permit them to participate, and which hides their incapacity beneath explanations, judgments, and news, enabling them to satisfy their desire without eliminating their incompetence. The more complex, general, and accelerated precious metal market phenomena become, the more investors feel concerned, the more they want to be involved.

And the investor does not want information, but only value judgments and preconceived positions. Here one must also take into account the investor's laziness, which plays a decisive role in the entire propaganda phenomenon, and the impossibility of transmitting all information fast enough to keep up with developments in the modern world. Besides, the developments are not merely beyond man's intellectual scope; they are also beyond him in volume and intensity; he simply cannot grasp the world's economic and political problems.

Faced with such matters, he feels his weakness, his inconsistency, his lack of effectiveness. He realizes that he depends on decisions over which he has no control, and that realization drives him to despair. Man cannot stay in this situation too long. He needs an ideological veil to cover the harsh reality, some consolation, a raison d'etre, a sense of values. And only propaganda offers him a remedy for a basically intolerable situation.

Following that quote, Unqualified Reservations observes that "the modern propaganda addict (we cannot call him a victim) experiences political authority ... entirely as porn. That is, as a simulation entirely without substance."

Simulation entirely without substance. Exactly what a lot of precious metal commentary is - Propaganda/Porn. Maybe to be less harsh I should say a lot of it is Entertainment (making it amusing to read them ranting against the main stream media when they themselves engage in the same dumbing down).

All very dangerous to your financial health, unless you know you are consuming entertainment. But how to identify it? I'd suggest asking: what do you associate the word "propaganda" with? I'd say Emotion. Propaganda is emotive, angry, fearful, blindly patriotic. Not rational or calm. That is one of its "tells".

GBP/AUD H4 & Daily Elliott Wave Analysys


New Elliott Wave count of GBPAUD here.

 On Daily chart one can see, that the last sell off was wave 3 of overall cycle and there is a need for one more wave to the downside:
=====================================================================
Na wykresie dziennym widać, że ostatnia silna sprzedaz  to była fala 3 całego cyklu i dlatego potrzebna jest jeszcze jedna fala w dól aby zakończyc pełen cykl:




On H4 chart one can see a corrective formation is being formed: it is either on Triangle (main) or Irregular Flat form (alternate):
=======================================================================
Na wykresie H4 widać, że są możliwe dwie formacje fali 4: Trójkąt lub Korekta Prosta :

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السبت، 16 مارس 2013

THE CATCH AND RELEASE TRADING PROFESSIONAL

 

In forex traders get into trouble because they have the wrong mentality.  They trade the "cling and hold method" and it gets them killed in the market.  Trading is a "Catch and Release" game.  Only hold a trade as long as it benefits you, if you catch the wrong trade, kill it like a rattle snake and start over.  

Most traders hold to bad trades for dear life in spite of the danger
 This is the wrong way to trade, if it can kill your account, let it go and look for a better trade.  (Write this somewhere that you can see it while you are trading (KILL IT BEFORE IT KILLS YOU). Only take the trades that you truly want.  That means only investing your hard-earned capital in a trade that is going to reward your patience and hard work. If it is a trick trade, simple cut it and follow market strength.  The sooner you cut it, the quicker you can recover and be on your way to profit.  

This is what most traders don't understand about the market, you only keep what you want and discard what you don't.  Trading is a catch release game............................. It is like going fishing for a Big Mouth Bass and finding a Water Moccasin on the other end of your fishing line; the smart fisherman would release that killer immediately.  Trading is the same way, if you catch a Big Mouth Bass, Salmon, Tuna, or Catfish, keep it.  It will feed you, but if you catch a shark, snake or sting ray, throw it back; it can kill you, and the longer you keep it, the more deadly it becomes.

Anyone can get in on the right side of the trade, but only pros understand the great advantage in cutting the line (a bad trade quickly) if there is poison on the other end.  Most traders let the snake bit into them and hold on hoping that the poison will not kill them.  That is just dumb, I know because I have done it a million and one times and that thinking killed me over and over again in the market.

Cutting a bad trade quickly keeps you in control and puts the power and responsibility for your trading into your own hands, instead of leaving you hopelessly at the hands of a merciless market. The market will either feed you or feed off of you.

Letting go of bad trades gives you the power to follow market strength into profit and build wealth.  Don't worry about taking small hits in the market, it is ok, there have been days that I have taken several hits and started the day off pretty deep in the red, but by the days end I was far ahead.  There are days that I have ended slightly behind, but I felt good about those days because I was trading(catching and releasing), releasing the poison.  Every trade will not be profitable and not every trade will be a home run, but there are the big reward times that the market will open her store house of the sweetest treasures; that is what you are saving, building and preserving your capitol for - those sweet days.

The biggest accomplishment in my trading is letting go of bad trades quickly.  It took me forever to fully comprehend the wealth building power at my disposal just from that one little secret alone.  Cling to the good, but discard the bad quickly.  Slow movement on your part could be deadly to your account.

Don't be afraid to let go, the wealth is there when you have the power to follow it, and it will reward your consistent discipline with a better lifestyle......





YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

 Real trading is about how well you handle the Rattle Snake, everything else is gambling.........





    













الجمعة، 15 مارس 2013

Trading Results 10-15.03.2013

Hello Traders!

Not very impressive result this week mainly due to very quiet market for first 3days of the week.
Two good signals for scalp on EURUSD  and two signals for swing long on GBPUD  has not been filled as well. Pity, because there were a near miss.
Anyway: profit is profit.

Those are trading results on Signal Service for last week into two categories: scalp and swing signal
Total of pips earned is a MININAL (basic) amount of pips, because IN SCALP TRADES ONLY TP1 IS BEING COUNTED!!!
So the potential amount of pips earned is much better.



Weeks From 10.03.2013 - 15.03.2013:

Scalp:
Forex Signal No.153|Buy USD/CAD@1.0150|SL:1.0137|TP1:1.0210|2013.03.15|13:30  CET|Scalp Buy 
Forex Signal No.152|Buy EUR/USD@1.2980| SL:1.29658|TP1:1.3000|TP2:1.3050|2013.03.15|10:00  CET|Scalp Buy
Forex Signal No.150|Sell  EUR/USD@1.2973| SL:1.2986| TP1:1.2895|TP2:1.2880|2013.03.14|11:00  CET|Scalp Sell| INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.149|Sell GBP/USD@1.4963| SL:1.4975| TP1:1.4943|TP2:1.4913|2013.3.1311:00 CET|LIVE TWEET|SLhit -12 pips
Forex Signal No.148|Buy  EUR/JPY@123.55| SL:123.39| TP1:124.55| TP2:125.75|2013.03.12 11:45 CET|Scalp Buy
Forex Signal No.147|Sell GBP/USD@1.4870| SL:1.4901| TP1:1.4800|TP2:1.4775|2013.3.12 10:30 CET|LIVE TWEET| SL=BE|Closed +20pips
Forex Signal No.146|Buy AUD/USD@1.0295| SL:1.0272| TP1:1.0355|TP2:1.0415|2013.3.12 10:25 CET|Scalp Buy|SL=BE| TP change to 1.0355|SL=1.0320| OUT: +30pips
Forex Signal No.145|Sell  EUR/USD@1.3070| SL:1.3082| TP1:1.3000| TP2:1.2980|2013.03.11 20:45 CET|Scalp Sell Closed +5pips, TP1 Hit: +20pips
Forex Signal No.144|Sell EUR/GBP@0.8764| SL:0.8781| TP1:0.8675|TP2:0.8624|2013.3.11 22:25 CET|Scalp Sell| Closed -2pips
Forex Signal No.142|Buy USD/CAD@1.0200| SL:1.0183| TP1:1.0300|TP2:1.03300|2013.3.11 22:25 CET|Scalp Buy| INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.141|Sell EUR/AUD@1.2720| SL:1.2735| TP:1.2650 |2013.03.11 22:20 CET| ScalpSell |INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.140|Buy DAX@7910| SL:7893| TP1:8000 TP2:8050|2013.03.11 22:20 CET| ScalpBuy |INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.139|Sell Gold@$1590| SL:$1592| TP1:$1575 TP2:$1565|2013.03.11 22:15 CET| ScalpSell |SL HIT -$2

Forex Signal No.136|Sell  EUR/USD@1.3040| SL:1.3052| TP1:1.3000| TP2:1.2980|2013.03.11 20:45 CET|Scalp Sell SL HIT: -12pips
TOTAL: +46 pips
     
Swing:
Forex Signal No.151a|Buy CAD/JPY@93.45| SL:92.89| TP1:95.10|TP2:95.55|2013.03.14|21:50  CET|Swing Buy| IN PLAY
Forex Signal No.151b|Buy CAD/JPY@93.10| SL:92.89| TP1:95.10|TP2:95.55|2013.03.14|21:50  CET|Swing Buy
Forex Signal No.138a|Buy  GBP/JPY@142.88| SL:142.58| TP1:143.88| TP2:144.48|2013.03.11 22:10 CET| Swing Buy | SL HIT: -30pips
Forex Signal No.137a|Buy  GBP/USD@1.4880| SL:1.4859| TP1:1.5100| TP2:1.5200|2013.03.11 22:00 CET| Swing Buy |Closed @ 1.4870 after data -10pips
Forex Signal No.143a|Buy AUD/USD@1.0185| SL:1.0095| TP1:1.0375|TP2:1.0500|2013.3.11 22:25 CET|Swing Buy |INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.143b|Buy AUD/USD@1.0120| SL:1.0095| TP1:1.0375|TP2:1.0500|2013.3.11 22:25 CET|Swing Buy|INVALIDATED
TOTAL: -40pips



Total this week: pips, +6pips
                          

Grand Total since 20.12.2012          +2014pips! 
                                                              0 DAX Points
                                                               -3 SP500 points 
                                                               +$84 Gold


Some of the swing trades are still in play: those are not leveraged trades.


Thanks for another profitable week!


Enjoy the weekend!






Green Pips,
Sebasitan Seliga

WIG20 Futures H4 Update

Nice wave 2 Triple ZigZag pattern with Ending Diagonal wave Z here.
Currently it looks like wave v of wave 1 might be fnishing or it has finished @ 38.6%Fibo. Next target would be 50% Fibo @ 2540points.
Only a break below the low of wave 2 would invalidate this count.
==============================================================
Ładny Potrójny ZygZak  z Ending Diagonal na fali Z jako cała fala 2.
Obecnie wygląda na to, że fala v albo się skończyła przy 38.6% FIbo albo jej następnym celem będzie 50% Fibo @ 2450punktów.

Tylko przebicie dołka unieważnia licznik.

Seb

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الخميس، 14 مارس 2013

EUR/USD H1 Update

This is last three days H1 analysys of EUR/USD on H1 TF posted on VIP Service blog.

Please check where the price is now.


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Seb




الاثنين، 11 مارس 2013

Nikkei225 Futures Weekly

This is Nikkei225 Futures Weekly chart back from 2004 - one can see the price is very close to 50% Fibo of the wave A and this is first level where wave B could be finished. The next level is 61% Fibo and previous Wave 4 SUPPLY area:

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Seb

 

الأحد، 10 مارس 2013

GBP/USD Weekly Update

Another count possibility (not my favoritue).

Seb

Signal Service Trading Results 04-08March 2013

Hello Traders!

Those are trading results on Signal Service for last week into two categories: scalp and swing.
Total of pips earned is a MININAL (basic) amount of pips, because IN SCALP TRADES ONLY TP1 IS BEING COUNTED!!!
So the potential amount of pips earned is much better.

Weeks From 04.03.2013 - 08.03.2013:

Scalp:
Forex Signal No.115|Buy  AUD/USD@1.0135| SL:1.0099| TP1:1.0235| TP2:1.0286|2013.02.27 12:35 CET| ScalpBuy |Closed @ 1.0163 +28pips | TP1 HIT: +100pips
Forex Signal No.135|Sell  EUR/USD@1.3047| SL:1.3077| TP1:1.2917| TP2:1.2877|2013.03.07 09:45 CET|Scalp Sell| -30pips
Forex Signal No.134|Buy USD/JPY@94.00| SL:93.75| TP1:94.50| TP2:94.79| 2013.03.07 09.05 CET| ScalpBuy|Live Tweet|SL Moved to 93.85| TP1 HIT: +50pips |TP2CHANGE to 94.99|TP2:Hit +50pips
Forex Signal No.133|Sell  EUR/USD@1.3017| SL:1.3022| TP1:1.2917| TP2:1.2877|2013.03.07 08:45 CET|Scalp Sell|Closed 0 pips
Forex Signal No.132|Buy USD/JPY@93.43| SL:93.25| TP1:93.73| TP2:94.00|2013.03.06 10:05 CET| ScalpBuy|Live Tweet Closed +15pips | TP1 HIT:+30pips | TP2 HIT: +57pips|
Forex Signal No.130|Sell  NZD/USD@0.8353| SL:0.8365| TP1:0.8290| TP2:0.8230|2013.03.05 09:45 CET|Scalp Sell| 0 pips (Missed by 4pips!!!)
Forex Signal No.129|Sell  EUR/GBP@0.8708| SL:0.8725| TP1:0.8608| TP2:0.8575|2013.03.03 18:45 CET|Scalp Sell|CLOSED @ BE 0 pips.
TOTAL: +150 ( with TP2: 257pips)
     
Swing:
Forex Signal No.127a|Buy  GBP/USD@1.4990| SL:1.4959| TP1:1.5200| TP2:1.5300|2013.03.03 12:00 CET| Swing Buy |Closed @ 1.5055 +65pips
Forex Signal No.127b|Buy  GBP/USD@1.4970| SL:1.4959| TP1:1.5200| TP2:1.5300|2013.03.03 12:00 CET| Swing Buy| Closed @ 1.5055 +85pips
Forex Signal No.124a|Sell USD/CAD@1.0249| SL:1.0390| TP1:1.0150|TP2:1.0090|2013.02.28 12:05 CET|Swing Sell|Closed -75pips
Forex Signal No.124b|Sell USD/CAD@1.0300| SL:1.0390| TP1:1.0150|TP2:1.0090|2013.02.28 21:30 CET|Swing Sell| Closed -25pips
Total: +50pips


Total this week: +200pips
                            



Week from 20Dec - 30Dec:               +145pips
Weeks from 31Dec - 11Jan:              +543 pips
Week from  14Jan - 18 Jan                +208pips
Week from 21Jan - 25Jan                 +215pips
Week from 28Jan - 1Feb                  +128pips( +10 Dax points + 8$ on Gold)
Week from 04Feb-08Feb                   +93pips  
Weeks From 11.02- 22.02.2013          +138pips,(+$66 on Gold, -10Dax  points)
Week from 25.02 - 01.03. 2013           +158pisps in scalp, +180pips in swing, -3 SP500 points
Week from 04.03 - 08.03. 2013           +150pips in scalp,   +50pips in swing

 
Grand Total since 20.12.2012               +2008pips! 
                                                              0 DAX Points
                                                               -3 SP500 points 
                                                               +$86 Gold


Some of the swing trades are still in play: those are not leveraged trades


Green Pips,
Sebasitan Seliga

الخميس، 7 مارس 2013

DJIA H4,D1 & Weekly Update

This is BULLISH and BEARISH point view on Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures.

The main count is BEARISH.

The next possible level  for wave 5 is 14388: there is a serious major Weekly Pivot Resistance, 61%Fibo Expansion and (6/8) octave level for major reverse measured from 2012.11.16 low.

Daily Fibo Time Cluster oscilates between 08-11 March 2013.
=====================================================================

BYCZY i NIEDZWIEDZI punkt widzenia na Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures.

Posdtawowy licznik jest NIEDZWIEDZI.

Następny mozliwy poziom dla szczytu fali 5 to 14388: znajduje sie w tym obszarze klaster cenowy skladajacy sie z Weekly Pivot, 61% Fibo Expansion oraz (6/8) oktawy MurrayMath mierzonej od dołka dnia 16.11.2012.

Pozatym w dniach 8-11 Marzec 2013 znajduje sie silny Klaster czasowy Fibo.

Seb
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الأربعاء، 6 مارس 2013

NZD/USD H4 Update

This is signal posted hours before the actual trade:
 
 Forex Signal No.130|Sell  NZD/USD@0.8353| SL:0.8365| TP1:0.8290| TP2:0.8230|2013.03.05 09:45 CET|Scalp Sell|



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 And those are before and after charts:

 Seb

USD/JPY H1 Update

This is today's signal I have issued on Signal Service and BEFORE  and  AFTER charts:

Forex Signal No.132|Buy USD/JPY@93.43| SL:93.25| TP1:93.73| TP2:94.00|2013.03.06 10:05 CET| ScalpBuy|Live Tweet 

TP1 and TP2 - both hit + 60pips

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Seb 


 

الثلاثاء، 5 مارس 2013

SP500 Futures H1 Update

Pretty much impulsive wave developing right now with very short retracements/corrections.
Buying levels with targets on chart: one can buy wave 4 retracement to former high @ 1530.


=====================================================================Impulsywny rozwój falowy z bardzo płytkimi korektami.
Poziom kupna to poprzeni szczyt 1530, do którego może sięgnąć korekta nieregularna fali 4.

Seb

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السبت، 2 مارس 2013

EUR/USD H4,Daily & Weekly Update

According to alternative count (alt:green) level of 1.2965 might be the end of wave (v) and my anticipaded level of 1.2953 will not be hit.
 However the main count still points out one more impulsive wave down opportunity as long as 1.3052 is not taken out. Even if it is, this recent move down still can be counted as Ending Diagonal wave (v). Only break above 61% Fibo will invalidate any bearish scenarios (grey rectangle) and break above thick red line @ 1.3162 will put the count into question.

On Daily chart there is even more bearish count with wave (4) moved a little bit higher. That would mean the current low is wave 3 not 3.

Seb

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