DO NOT get confused by the weekly pivot level - indicator that draws the lines refreshes with new pivots on Monday market open and chart has been made on Sunday.
Seb
BEFORE - ( SUNDAY 28th April 2013):
الاثنين، 29 أبريل 2013
EUR/USD CFD Futures M15 VSA Update
As per video and chart with arrows I had posted on Sunday - trading this setup would made You 50 pips easy.
DO NOT get confused by the weekly pivot level - indicator that draws the lines refreshes with new pivots on Monday market open and chart has been made on Sunday.
Seb
BEFORE - ( SUNDAY 28th April 2013):
AFTER - (MONDAY 29th April 2013):
DO NOT get confused by the weekly pivot level - indicator that draws the lines refreshes with new pivots on Monday market open and chart has been made on Sunday.
Seb
BEFORE - ( SUNDAY 28th April 2013):
الأحد، 28 أبريل 2013
GBP/USD Daily Update
On 29th of April 2013 the latest swing up will retrace 100% in time of last swing up and histogram shows very high score for Fibonacci Time Cluster between 29-30th April 2013.
30th of April will be 7th trading bar in progression (LUCAS NUMBER) and 1st of May will be 8th trading bar in progression ( FIBONACCI NUMBER).
Just saying.
Seb
30th of April will be 7th trading bar in progression (LUCAS NUMBER) and 1st of May will be 8th trading bar in progression ( FIBONACCI NUMBER).
Just saying.
Seb
الجمعة، 26 أبريل 2013
Sigma_Square Trading Results 22-26.04.2013
Hello Traders!
Very good week in trading and record number of signals has been sent this week: 24 signals.
Some of the futures were traded for the first time, like CORN, Nikkei futures or NatGas but we have made profit on them anyway!
16th profitable week in a row.
Details:
Weeks From 22.04.2013 - 26.04.2013:
Forex Signal No.246|Sell AUD/JPY@100.50| SL:100.62| TP1:100.00|2013.04.26 16:50 CET||ScalpSell|Closed @ 100.40 +10pips
Forex Signal No.245|Sell GBP/JPY@151.65| SL:151.77| TP1:151.05|2013.04.26 16:45 CET||ScalpSell|Closed @ 151.10 +55pips
Forex Signal No.244|Sell NatGas@4.216| SL:4.311| TP1:4.160|TP2: 4.100|2013.04.24 10:25 CET||SwingSell| Closed @ 4.165 +50points
Forex Signal No.244b|Sell NatGas@4.230| SL:4.311| TP1:4.160|TP2: 4.100|2013.04.24 10:25 CET||SwingSell|Closed @ 4.165 +65points
Forex Signal No.243a|Buy EUR/NZD@1.5410| SL:1.5385| TP1:1.5500|TP2: 1.5600|2013.04.23 21:45 CET||SwingBuy|-25pips
Forex Signal No.243b|Buy EUR/NZD@1.5464| SL:1.5385| TP1:1.5500|TP2: 1.5600|2013.04.23 21:45 CET||SwingBuy|-85pips
Forex Signal No.242a|BuyGBP/AUD@1.4880| SL:1.4775| TP1:1.500|TP2: 1.5050|2013.04.23 19:45 CET||SwingSell|Closed @ 1.4950 +70pips TP1Hit: +120pips TP2Hit: +170pips
Forex Signal No.242b|BuyGBP/AUD@1.4845| SL:1.4775| TP1:1.500|TP2: 1.5050|2013.04.23 19:45 CET||SwingSell|Close @ 1.4865 +20pips
Forex Signal No.241|BuyCAD/JPY@96.93| SL:96.68| TP1:97.33|TP2: 97.83|2013.04.23 17:45 CET|LiveTweet|SwingBuy|SL Hit -25pips
Forex Signal No.240|Sell Corn@643.18| SL:648.51| TP1:633|TP2: 623|2013.04.23 17:45 CET|LiveTweet|SwingSell|Closed +5points
Forex Signal No.239|Sell SP500@1571.25| SL:1581.25| TP1:1543|TP2: 1432|2013.04.23 17:30 CET|LiveTweet|ScalpSell|Closed +10points
Forex Signal No.238|Sell SP500@1560| SL:1563| TP1:1543|TP2: 1432|2013.04.22 11:00 CET|ScalpSell|Closed +10points
Forex Signal No.237|Buy Eurostoxx@2437| SL:2417| TP1:2617|TP2: 2717|2013.04.21 21:00 CET|SwingBuy
Forex Signal No.236|Buy AUD/USD@1.0280| SL:1.0265| TP1:1.0350|TP2: 1.0390|2013.04.21 21:00 CET|ScalpBuy|SL Hit -15pips
Forex Signal No.235|Sell Soybeans@1436| SL:1443| TP1:1410|TP2: 1394|2013.04.21 18:00 CET|ScalpSell
Forex Signal No.234|Buy EUR/NZD@1.5412| SL:1.5392| TP1:1.5620|TP2: 1.5700|2013.04.21 18:00 CET|ScalpBuy|SL Hit -20pips
Forex Signal No.233|Buy USD/CHF@0.9288| SL:0.9265| TP1:0.9393|TP2: 0.9431|2013.04.21 18:00 CET|SwingBuy|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.232a|Buy USD/CAD@1.0230|SL:1.0159|TP1:1.0340||TP2:1.0400|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingBuy|Closed +10pips due to the news
Forex Signal No.232b|Buy USD/CAD@1.0200|SL:1.0159|TP1:1.0340||TP2:1.0400|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingBuy|Closed at BE due to invalidation of pattern
Forex Signal No.231|Sell GBP/JPY@152.26|SL:152.51|TP1:151.06||TP2:150.06|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|Closed +30pips
Forex Signal No.230|Sell EUR/JPY@129.50|SL:130.25|TP1:128.10||TP2:126.50|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|Closed +75pips |TP1Hit: +140pips
Forex Signal No.229|Sell EUR/JPY@131.10|SL:131.25|TP1:130.10|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|ScalpSell
Forex Signal No.228a|Sell Nikkei@13939|SL:14101|TP1:13900|TP2:13800|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|Closed + 60points
Forex Signal No.228b|Sell Nikkei@14000|SL:14101|TP1:13939|TP2:13800|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|Closed +120points
Forex Signal No.227a|Sell DAX@7560|SL:7566|TP1:7450|TP2:7400|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|SL Hit -6points
Forex Signal No.227b|Sell DAX@7618|SL:7625|TP1:7450|TP2:7400|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|SL Hit -7points
Forex Signal No.226|Sell USD/JPY@100.20|SL:100.51|TP1:99.00|TP2:98.00|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|
Forex Signal No.225a|Sell GBP/USD@1.5220|SL:1.5271|TP1:1.5032|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|SL Hit -51pips
Forex Signal No.225b|Sell GBP/USD@1.5243|SL:1.5271|TP1:1.5032|2013.04.22 11:20 CET|SwingSell|SL Hit -28pis
Forex Signal No.224|Sell EUR/USD@1.3100|SL:1.3128|TP1:1.3026|TP2:1.3000|2013.04.21 11:00 CET|SwingSell|INVALIDATED
Week from 22.04-26.04.2013 +30pips in scalp, +105pips in swing, +115poins in NatGas,+20points on SP500, +5points on Corn, +110points on Nikkei, -13points in DAX
Grand Total since 20.12.2012 +4422pips!
+86 DAX Points
+22 SP500 points
+$105 Gold
+115 NatGas
+110 Nikkei
+5 Corn
Weekly tradnig plan on weekend + more Updates and Signals during the weekend will be posted on blog.
Weekly analsys of the possible setups should be posted on youtube.
Thanks for another week!
Green pips!
Kind regards,
Sebastian Seliga
...and there it is!!! 100 000 page views!!!
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR VISITING THE BLOG!!!
LEARN, ENJOY AND MAKE MONEY!!!
GREEN PIPS!
Seb
Wig20 Futures H4 Update
Right now the index just bounced off 61%Fibo and has made an ABC ZigZag wave pattern that is VERY common for wave 2 correction.
This is last chance for bulls, because if it fails, then the next support except 78.6%Fibo is @ 2065.
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SEB
This is last chance for bulls, because if it fails, then the next support except 78.6%Fibo is @ 2065.
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SEB
COMEX stock drawdown: single most important metric to watch
To understand what is going on with COMEX stocks, don't look at the stock level - it will lead you astray. You need the metric I presented at the Gold Standard Institute's 2009 seminar; one which Professor Fekete thought was the single most important metric to determine stress in the market. The second thing you need to do is put recent market action in historical context.
Firstly, lets review some historical stock levels for gold and silver for some key years - the 1980 peak, the 2001 bottom, 2012 and now. There is only one place I know that has that data going back that far, and it is www.sharelyxn.com. It is a lot easier to follow by looking at the charts of the stock levels, which are available for gold and silver if you have a subscription. If not, then just sign up for a free trial, it will be worth it just to see the charts I'm talking about.
The table below shows the average total (registered + eligible) COMEX stock in millions of ounces for each of those years.
| Year | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 3.5 | 80 |
| 2001 | 1.0 | 100 |
| 2012 | 11.0 | 140 |
| Now | 8.0 | 166 |
First thing to notice is that even after the big gold drop being talked about, the total gold stock is still massively up on the 2001 bottom and the 1980 bull market. Not surprisingly, given the behaviour of SLV's holdings, COMEX silver hasn't dropped.
However, the stock figure by itself doesn't tell us much, as how can we compare the 1980s with today when we have a much larger economy. The important metric is to compare stocks in relation to open interest. If stocks decline but open interest declines as well, then the stock drop is to be expected.
Thankfully Nick at Sharelynx calculates this for us - what he calls Owners per Ounce, or Stocks Cover and you can find the charts here. It is just open interest in ounces divided by stock in ounces. I like to invert it, which gives you a percentage indicating how much of the open interest is backed by stock, a sort of fractional reserves figure. The table below has those approximate figures I've eyeballed from Nick's charts.
However, the stock figure by itself doesn't tell us much, as how can we compare the 1980s with today when we have a much larger economy. The important metric is to compare stocks in relation to open interest. If stocks decline but open interest declines as well, then the stock drop is to be expected.
Thankfully Nick at Sharelynx calculates this for us - what he calls Owners per Ounce, or Stocks Cover and you can find the charts here. It is just open interest in ounces divided by stock in ounces. I like to invert it, which gives you a percentage indicating how much of the open interest is backed by stock, a sort of fractional reserves figure. The table below has those approximate figures I've eyeballed from Nick's charts.
| Year | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 13% | 10% |
| 2001 | 9% | 28% |
| 2012 | 26% | 22% |
| Now | 19% | 21% |
So even after that COMEX stock drop in gold, we still have a coverage ratio that is way above that which applied in the 1980 bull and which is not down much on 2012. The current coverage of around 20% also needs to be kept in context of the percentage of open interest which stands for delivery, which for gold and silver over the past five years averages between 2% to 4%. So it looks like COMEX has plenty of stock on a historical basis. It is when that percentage coverage gets a lot closer to the average standing for delivery rate that we can consider COMEX under stress and at risk of cash settlement. We aren't close, no matter how the much the pumper sites like to hype the recent stock declines.
And for those who will say what about if everyone stands for delivery, well consider that while most of the shorts don't have the metal, most of the longs don't have the cash. We know this because of all the talk about margin calls causing people to have to sell. Think about that - if they couldn't meet the margin calls, then it means they didn't have the money to stand for delivery.
Nikkei225 Futures Daily Update
Looks like five waves up are done OR this is the top of wave (iii) and all depends on today's close . The clue migh be a candlestick pattern like Bearish Engulfing pattern.
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SEB
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SEB
EUR/USD M15 EWP + VSA Update
So far the accumulation is taking place third day in a row.
Strength in the background.
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SEB
Strength in the background.
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الخميس، 25 أبريل 2013
Chill out dudes
OK, it is all getting a bit silly out there on the gold interwebs, particularly in respect of the supposed physical-paper price disconnect. I have been trying to kill this meme ever since it first appeared in 2008 but it seems the idea of production capacity shortages seems too difficult for many to get.
The "real" price of gold isn't what you pay for a 1oz coin on eBay. As Mish says "Premiums on small denomination coins is not the same a general premium on physical gold itself." But don't take his or my word for it, here's what Jim Sinclair says:
"For many retail investors around the world they are dialed into the paper market in various exchanges. The second market is a small one, but popular among retail investors, and that’s your corner or even major coin dealers. But neither of those are in fact the real gold market, which is the cash market for gold. This is the cash market for 400 ounce deliverable fine gold bars. That represents the true price of the market on any given day. ... for the physical market, not the coin dealers, but the real market, the 400 ounce deliverable market and Asian type settlement ..."
So what is going on in this real market? Well, don't look to Jim Willie who thinks that "those who purchase metals in bulk are having to pay $2000 or more an ounce for gold in the Asian markets". I work for the Perth Mint and we sell tonnes and tonnes of gold kilo bars into Asia every week and we'd be lucky to get a few dollars of premium above the so-called fake paper spot price. That tells me there isn't any stress in the wholesale markets. So COMEX and LBMA aren't going to be failing any time soon.
Then we have the ABN Amro story with John Embry claiming that "the Dutch Bank ABN AMRO came out and literally said that if you have allocated gold with us, you can’t have it. That, to me, is a default". Sorry, not true, thanks to About.Ag who found this link to the English translation of the conditions of those accounts and on page 6, section 4.3, it says:
"1. You have no right to the physical precious metals which you invest. However, under certain conditions, you can physically obtain the precious metals. ... 3. You cannot always physically receive the precious metal. ... In that case, you therefore have no rights or receivables vis -à-vis DBN or the bank."
Sounds like a classic bank unallocated account, which unlike the Perth Mint's, is not necessarily backed by physical. So it is not a case of default.
Final example is Bill Downey's claim that "the London physical platform that buys and sells physical gold gets locked up. The system freezes". When I told Dan at The Fundamental View that there was no "the" London platform, he followed it up and discovered that:
"The screen shot in the article is not of a "physical" market but just a trading platform from a bank (one of many, each BB has their own platforms) for trading spot unallocated XAU/USD FX pair. The post made it seem (to the unaware) that this was "the" London platform. – Mr. Downey acknowledged this error in his email to me. ... His articles made it seem as though the system “shut down and locked people out from placing orders”. To his credit, Mr. Downey admitted to me that this could not be proven and that this was simply speculation on his part. He did admit that orders could still be phoned in."
Simply speculation on his part. This price drop seems to have resulted in a lot of that. Look, it is great news that retail investors have gotten a bit smarter and are buying on price drops rather than chasing the price up like they have in the past, but it does not portend the end of the (paper gold) world, yet.
If you want to be a little smarter, consider what I said to Ed Steer today, "buyers really need to go for the cheapest physical they can and be a bit more flexible on who makes it...or go from coins to bars. Paying high premiums just because you want a certain brand or bar size, just means your money buys less ounces, which takes less ounces off the market."
I note that Sprott's gold trust is trading pretty much at spot. So if you are a suspicious goldbug, which is why you want physical, then doesn't it make a lot more sense to buy the trustworthy PHYS at spot and then when this rush dies down, to sell your PHYS and buy physical coins/bars at more reasonable premiums? Funny how none of the physical pumpers mention this. That's because they can't make money off exorbitant fabrication premiums if you buy PHYS rather than their coins.
Like the post title says, Chill Out, and think a bit deeper about the memes being pushed on you. To help with that, suggest reading this speculation that Andrew Maguire is a US Federal Reserve double agent. That site is a joke by the way, for those without a sense of humour, although the question of why Andrew hasn't produced a CV to stick in Jeff Christian's face is valid and something that puzzles me and some on this Kitco forum thread.
Then we have the ABN Amro story with John Embry claiming that "the Dutch Bank ABN AMRO came out and literally said that if you have allocated gold with us, you can’t have it. That, to me, is a default". Sorry, not true, thanks to About.Ag who found this link to the English translation of the conditions of those accounts and on page 6, section 4.3, it says:
"1. You have no right to the physical precious metals which you invest. However, under certain conditions, you can physically obtain the precious metals. ... 3. You cannot always physically receive the precious metal. ... In that case, you therefore have no rights or receivables vis -à-vis DBN or the bank."
Sounds like a classic bank unallocated account, which unlike the Perth Mint's, is not necessarily backed by physical. So it is not a case of default.
Final example is Bill Downey's claim that "the London physical platform that buys and sells physical gold gets locked up. The system freezes". When I told Dan at The Fundamental View that there was no "the" London platform, he followed it up and discovered that:
"The screen shot in the article is not of a "physical" market but just a trading platform from a bank (one of many, each BB has their own platforms) for trading spot unallocated XAU/USD FX pair. The post made it seem (to the unaware) that this was "the" London platform. – Mr. Downey acknowledged this error in his email to me. ... His articles made it seem as though the system “shut down and locked people out from placing orders”. To his credit, Mr. Downey admitted to me that this could not be proven and that this was simply speculation on his part. He did admit that orders could still be phoned in."
Simply speculation on his part. This price drop seems to have resulted in a lot of that. Look, it is great news that retail investors have gotten a bit smarter and are buying on price drops rather than chasing the price up like they have in the past, but it does not portend the end of the (paper gold) world, yet.
If you want to be a little smarter, consider what I said to Ed Steer today, "buyers really need to go for the cheapest physical they can and be a bit more flexible on who makes it...or go from coins to bars. Paying high premiums just because you want a certain brand or bar size, just means your money buys less ounces, which takes less ounces off the market."
I note that Sprott's gold trust is trading pretty much at spot. So if you are a suspicious goldbug, which is why you want physical, then doesn't it make a lot more sense to buy the trustworthy PHYS at spot and then when this rush dies down, to sell your PHYS and buy physical coins/bars at more reasonable premiums? Funny how none of the physical pumpers mention this. That's because they can't make money off exorbitant fabrication premiums if you buy PHYS rather than their coins.
Like the post title says, Chill Out, and think a bit deeper about the memes being pushed on you. To help with that, suggest reading this speculation that Andrew Maguire is a US Federal Reserve double agent. That site is a joke by the way, for those without a sense of humour, although the question of why Andrew hasn't produced a CV to stick in Jeff Christian's face is valid and something that puzzles me and some on this Kitco forum thread.
GBP/USD H1 Update
This chart has been posted on VIP Service blog on 24.04.2013.
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SEB
BEFORE AND AFTER CHART:
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SEB
BEFORE AND AFTER CHART:
EUR/USD CDF FUTURES M15 Update
الأربعاء، 24 أبريل 2013
EUR/USD CFD Futures M15 VSA + Elliott Update
Bad IFO news from Germany: herde is selling on BAD news , Smart Money are Buying on High Crunch White Bar. Immediate Mark UP phase next and partial Distribution into 38.6%Fibo.
Seb
Seb
24.04.2013 Eur/usd trade idea
2xL eur/usd
1 position scalp
2. position swing
SL 1.2970
RISK 23 pips
SL -23 pips
الثلاثاء، 23 أبريل 2013
EUR/USD CFD Futures M15 VSA Chart
As it was posted this morning on EUR/USD H1 Update, the grey area was the main support for bulls and after the PMI data EUR/USD fall down to 1.2975 - 1.2985 area on stopping volume ( white candle) where it has found buyers into support: Smart Money accumulating cheap Euro that had been sold due to the data. Then we got test the support on low volume and immediate move up. Then any new dip has been bought (accumulation #2) and now we are in area of resistance , where TP is taking place into 1.3020-1.3025 area.
Seb
23.04.2013 Eur/usd Trade Idea
2xL eur/usd 1.2980 SL 1.2970 Risk 20 pips
update:
+80 pips.
EUR/JPY H1 Update
This chart has been posted on VIP Service blog on 21.04.2013.
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BEFORE AND AFTER CHART:
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BEFORE AND AFTER CHART:
الاثنين، 22 أبريل 2013
الأحد، 21 أبريل 2013
Bringing forward demand
The most interesting thing about this price drop is the reaction of retail clients, who have gone crazy like its 2008. The Perth Mint's bullion website has been having traffic problems and we've had lines at our Perth retail outlet. Depository buying is relatively more subdued, but still the volumes are up.
It is an encouraging sign as usually retail business is only strong when there is a clear upward trend in the gold price. Maybe they have learnt something fom our Asian and Indian friends, who are much more canny buyers.
I was talking to one of our coin dealers a few days ago and he said about a 3rd of business was newbies. At this time my question is whether the price drop has just brought forward
1. New investors who were thinking about buying
2. Existing holders who were looking to top up
But both had not previously acted as the price was going sideways. If we are just sucking demand from the future then this demand will fade. I think this is probable as there has been no change in the underlying fundamentals, no event that would freak people out to buy gold suddenly (Crypus and Boston I don't think would have that effect).
We will need to keep an eye on retail demand to see if it continues. If it does then we should get a repeat of 2008 when coin distributors started to look further afield to overseas mints for coins. Given the Perth Mint's distance and higher quality/higher fabrication price, we should be the last to start to run out of production capacity. If we report these sort of problems then you know the retail demand is serious.
It is an encouraging sign as usually retail business is only strong when there is a clear upward trend in the gold price. Maybe they have learnt something fom our Asian and Indian friends, who are much more canny buyers.
I was talking to one of our coin dealers a few days ago and he said about a 3rd of business was newbies. At this time my question is whether the price drop has just brought forward
1. New investors who were thinking about buying
2. Existing holders who were looking to top up
But both had not previously acted as the price was going sideways. If we are just sucking demand from the future then this demand will fade. I think this is probable as there has been no change in the underlying fundamentals, no event that would freak people out to buy gold suddenly (Crypus and Boston I don't think would have that effect).
We will need to keep an eye on retail demand to see if it continues. If it does then we should get a repeat of 2008 when coin distributors started to look further afield to overseas mints for coins. Given the Perth Mint's distance and higher quality/higher fabrication price, we should be the last to start to run out of production capacity. If we report these sort of problems then you know the retail demand is serious.
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