الأربعاء، 31 مارس 2010

100:1

DUMP THAT LOSER


One of the biggest mistakes that traders make is holding on to losers too long. The reason we do this is because we can't stand to lose that money. We can't stand to see our bottom line shrink. We can't take the fact that we were wrong in the trade set up. We don't want to mess up a good winning streak. We got stopped out too many times, only to soon see price reverse in our favor. We got angry because we got tricked and now refuse to budge, but keeping the loss only hurts us, while another trader is getting our money. We got tricked it happens, it is time to cut our losses and move on to another better trade set-up.

Whatever the reason, holding on to losing trades IS A BAD IDEA, that only cripples you.

There are other ways you lose besides losing your money??????

By refusing to take a legitimate loss, (not when price moves against you a few pips in a well established trend, but holding for days, weeks and months), you rob yourself of many more profits. When you lock yourself in a losing trade, you can't take any profitable trades in that pair. Say you are short on the USD/JPY and the pair moves against you, now you have practiced good money management so you can afford to hold on to it until in comes back in your favor, it has now been 6 months. With FIFO (first in, first out) that is 6 months that you could not make money on that pair because you were nursing a loss. If you traded on the pair twice a day that is 318 trades(taking out Saturday) that you have cheated yourself out of over six month, and even if you got just 5 pips per trader, that is 1590 pips that you have missed, but say that you couldn't get every trade, you only got half that is 795 pips that you have missed...........ok, but even that is a struggle, so let's say a third, that is 265 pips, that you have cheated yourself out of, and if you are really a great trader, you know that you have missed so much more, say you were able to average ten pips per trade over the 6 months, then that is 3,180 pips that you have kept yourself from. Let's translate pips into dollars that is $265.00, enough for a nice Christmas present. $790.00, enough for that nice gadget that will impress your Friends. $1590.00 enough for that great TV you want. $3,180.00 enough for a great down payment on your teenagers first car.

You could have traded that multiple times both long and short, instead you threw it all away because you refused to take that loss.

Then the loss gets too big and you feel like you can't take it, because you can't afford to take it now. If you cut the legs off of that monster while it is manageable, it won't grow up to eat you.

Not cutting a loss, increased your stress level, making you harder to live with. Makes you feel sorry for yourself, 'because GOD will help everybody else but you'. You are too worried to sleep, so you stay up and watch the market. You also limit the amount of money you can trade with, because a portion of it is locked in that losing trade, resulting in smaller profits.

You are going bald, your blood pressure is up and you are stressed to hell. Just cut the loss while it is manageable. I know you don't want to give the market your money, but that is part of the price of playing the game. Don't trap yourself into a corner that you can't make money in, it is sooooooooooo much worst than giving the market a few dollars, because you are still able to trade and make more money. What if it takes a whole week to recover, it is still better than that panicky feeling that comes from watching the market go against you day after day after day and feeling helpless to do anything about it.

The right way is to ride the winners and DUMP THE LOSERS, because they cripple you, they pull you down emotionally, they steal your trading confidence and lastly they drain your account as they get greedier and greedier the larger they become.

IS IT WORTH IT??????????!!!!!!!!

DON'T LET YOUR LOSERS RUN WILD, Because many times they will run until they drain you dry.


YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)



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الثلاثاء، 23 مارس 2010

Defending a Virtual Currency

The Price Yo-Yo

What is the Price Yo-Yo???????

It is the price dance that keeps traders confused and keeps them off guard. Every hour, every day, every week and every month you have a natural price movement like the flow of musical notes. It flows up and it flows down sometimes like smooth rolling hills and sometimes like sharp cliffs and canyons.

The Price Yo-Yo is one of the hardest things for traders to get use to, as is seems so random and without any logic. When you are sitting at your computer all day watching price move up, down and sideways it is easy to get confused about the true direction of the market. That is why it is always best to get a view of the bigger picture before you begin trading in smaller time frames.

By looking at the bigger picture you can plan a strategy that will help you to keep sight of your trading objective and give you an advantage that you would not have if you just jumped in on a smaller time frame and started to trade without that bigger time frame reference.



If you see that your market is mostly bullish on a four hour chart, then it may be wise for you to take trades in the bullish direction on the 15min time frame. If you have a predictable range bound market, then you want to look for opportunities to sell near resistance and buy near support on your 15 min time frame. Remember you only want to buy/sell at these point with proper candlestick reversal pattern at/near an established support/resistance. Waiting for proper entry/exit signals will put you on the right side of the trade most of the time (^_^)

Keeping an eye on the bigger time frame picture, will give you an advantage and help keep you from getting confused and losing your way while trading in smaller time frames. If you have been trading any time, you know that you can use every advantage you can get (^_^).

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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الثلاثاء، 16 مارس 2010

PRICE ACTION AND FRIENDS



Why do so many traders go broke???????

The house advantage!!!!


What is the house advantage???????



The house has all of the money and knows and makes the rules. The thing about the rules is that they seem random as if they are being made up as we are going along. That is why the proper interpretation of the language of the charts is so essential to your trading success. Your indicators and oscillators are only following where the price lead. How much better is it to be able to interpret what is going on in the market long before your indicator does? It can be done and is done skillfully everyday by people who understand and know the language the charts speak.
What is this secret, strange, mysterious, language that the charts speak???



PRICE ACTION!!!!!!!! What price is doing and has done, along with the natural rhythm of the market.




By the time your indicators tell you what your price is doing, you are already behind those who interpreted price action long before your indicator/oscillator clued you in. Have you ever waited for your indicator/oscillator to tell you to get in only to discover that you have missed a great deal of the move already. Becoming fluent in the language of price will help you to avoid much of that.



THERE IS NO PERFECT FOREX SYSTEM, it doesn't exist, but studying and learning the language of your charts will put the odds in your favor, and help you to glean a sweet little profit in the process.







There are no short cuts here. You can learn the language and get an advantage, or you can rely on the news, support/resistance, trend lines or other indicators/oscillators. I am a huge fan of support/resistance and trend lines, but gaining an understanding of price action will give you a clear advantage.



I am not bashing indicators, but you need to understand what they are. They are merely assistants and interns to the PRESIDENT OF PRICE ACTION.



Is PRICE ACTION ENOUGH??????



NO!!!!!!!



Like the president, your Price action needs a cabinet that can support it. That is where your indicators and oscillators come on. They are your support staff. Once you master PRICE ACTION, the other things become natural assistants.



Price action will not tell you everything, it will not tell you how far price is headed, and how long the destination might be. That is where support/resistance, and long term trend line comes in.



At the end of the month, always see where your price is headed, then plan your strategy accordingly, knowing that most of the time you will have a bounce on your weekly candle. DO NOT SHORT OFF OF THE LOW OF THAT LAST MONTHLY CANDLE, BECAUSE MOST OF THE TIME, YOU WILL END UP ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE TRADE.



THAT IS WHY LEARNING YOUR MARKET RHYTHM IS SO IMPORTANT!!!



PRICE ACTION ALONG WITH FRIENDS CAN TAKE YOU WHERE YOU WANT TO BE.



You may use any indicator/oscillator that your are comfortable with. Just remember that they are the cabinet to the PRESIDENT OF PRICE ACTION!!!!!!!!!!!



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YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)







الثلاثاء، 9 مارس 2010

THE GUESSING OF TRADING

Trading is based on our hypothesis. In other words trading amounts to our educated guesses, which means the more you invest in your education, the more likely you are to find yourself on the right side of the trade. One of the most widely overlooked parts of trading education by traders is the study of past charts. I make personal videos, so that like a football team I can review my plays and create better strategies.

Your chart will tell you almost every thing you need to know to get on the right side of the trade. The one thing it doesn't tell you is what is going on behind the scenes and it will even give you a hint to that most of the time. Your bullish/bearish ENGULFING patterns are evidence that there are some secrets that the market keeps to itself.

Mastering your candlestick psychology, your support/resistance, and your trendlines are things that you want to major on and learn well. You may not win every trade, but having a firm foundation on these simple techniques can greatly increase your odds of a successful trade. I think the more simple your charts, the better and easier it is for you to enter a good trade.

Sometimes you will have the perfect trade set up and all of your analysis will be right and you will find yourself on the wrong side of the trade. No big deal, it happens to all of us, review that trade and see if you can identify the error. When you have reviewed it, look for the next trading opportunity. There is NO PERFECT TRADING STRATEGY!!!!!!! This is only a guessing game for those of us who like to play the odds. The better your education, the better your odds will be against the house.

YOU CAN ABSOLUTELY DO THIS (^_^)

YOU CAN BE SUCCESSFUL AT FOREX!!!!!

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الخميس، 4 مارس 2010

STRATEGY VIDEOS IN ONE PLACE


My Friends, I am always honored to have you along. I am going to post some strategic videos here that you can book mark so that you can review them from time to time. Keep in mind that every market day is different. Your candlesticks are always telling a story. Look at the past story of the candles to help accurately interpret what your candles are telling you right now.

ALWAYS WAIT FOR PROPER TRADE SET-UPS. Great trading is mostly waiting to meet with great profit opportunity. No truly great trader is in the market all of the time. A truly great trader waits to pounce when she/he sees profit ripe on the horizon. However, I know some scalpers that make more than 200pips a day, but they wait for proper trade set-ups.

You have to choose the trading style that fits your personality, as there are many ways to successfully trade forex and no one has the monopoly on great trading. We have just found what works for us successfully. When you find good stuff, learn what you can, then tweak it to make it your own. Forex is a consistent building of knowledge.

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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الأربعاء، 3 مارس 2010

Fake Tungsten Gold Story

The gold bars filled with tungsten story is getting another run - see Zero Hedge and RunToGold.

Nick from ShareLynx Gold passed on to me today the following from the producers of the video (all personal info was removed by him before forwarding):

vielen Dank für Ihre Anfrage.
MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ENQUIRY

Das Video ist tatsächlich bei Argor in der Schweiz aufgenommen worden, allerdings in einem ganz anderen Zusammenhang.

THE VIDEO WAS EFFECTIVELY TAKEN AT ARGOR IN SWITZERLAND, ALTHOUGH IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CONTEXT

Unten eine englischsprachige Erklärung hierzu, die Ihnen einige weitere Hintergrundinformationen gibt. Der Barren wurde übrigens schon vor über 10 Jahren bei Argor zum Einschmelzen abgegeben; sofort entdeckt und aus dem Verkehr gezogen. Gefälschte Barren kommen extrem selten vor, unsere Kollegen in den Schmelzen können sich an keinen Fall in den letzten Jahren erinnern, in denen ein solcher bei Heraeus zur Aufarbeitung eingeliefert wurde.

BELOW AN EXPLANATION IN ENGLISH TO THIS ISSUE, THAT WILL GIVE YOU SOME FURTHER BACKGROUND INFORMATION. THE BARS, BY THE WAY, WERE DELIVERED TO ARGOR ALREADY MORE THAN TEN YEARS AGO FOR SMELTING; WERE IMMEDIATELY DISCOVERED AND WITHDRAWN FROM CIRCULATION. COUNTERFEIT BARS ARE EXTREMELY RARE, OUR COLLEAGUES FROM THE FOUNDRY CANNOT RECALL A SINGLE INSTANCE IN THE LAST YEARS IN WHICH SUCH A BAR WAS DELIVERED TO HERAEUS FOR PROCESSING.

Statement:

The video shown on www.youtube.com is an extract from the weekly German television broadcast Galileo that discusses scientific topics. This particular broadcast covered the topic of gold including testing the purity of gold bars.

The presentation of the scene of (gold) production at the Argor Heraeus refinery – that was put on youtube.com in another context – when seen together with the text could therefore give an incorrect impression.

The false bar shown in the broadcast was a bar not produced by Heraeus; it was sent to the company for refining and detected already at the time of delivery. Compliance Management at Argor-Heraeus is very important and plays an important role at the company. Among others, it has very stringent rules for handling and dealing with precious metals.

Therefore, and combined also with strong and effective quality controls, Argor-Heraeus is able to assure the authenticity of gold bars produced by the company itself at all times.

Internet: www.heraeus-edelmetallhandel.de
Heraeus Metallhandelsgesellschaft mbH
Heraeusstr. 12-14, 63450 Hanau, Germany


So the video is about ten year old fake bars. Another example of commentators jumping the gun and hyping a story without any fact/background checking. To be fair, it really is only someone like Nick who has a worldwide well-connected subscriber base who can do that sort of checking.

I also find it interesting that the video Zero Hedge linked is the only upload of YouTube user wolframgold who only joined on 28 Feb 2010. This leads me to a conspiracy I am surprised none of the more rabid commentators have come up with yet, namely that the source of the tungsten rumours since October 2009 is either a refinery/mint trying to scare people away from the secondary market and ebay and into only buying new bars and coins OR producers of testing equipment!

Nick also passed on to me a link to BullionAnalysis.com, which has some nice pictures of fake Englehard silver bars that their equipment would have detected. This does undercut RunToGold's conclusion from the tungsten scare that "if one is concerned about the quality of their gold then the other precious metals like silver and platinum are good alternatives". Ouch.

I would also disagree with RunToGold's statement that "detecting a high-quality fake tungsten gold bar would be extremely difficult. It would likely require significant and material alterations to the bar being tested and this would negatively affect the marketability if its hallmark veracity were vindicated."

Ultrasonic testers will do the job without having to damage a bar. I quote some techo stuff from KK&S Instruments:

The 1090 Flaw Detector allows you to look into the Bar for voids/defects as well as UT velocity which is determined the products elastic modulus i.e Tungsten Velocity is 5183-5460m/sec and Gold is 3,240m/sec. For example if you calibrate for Au then the testing Tungsten bar of the same thickness, the UT thickness would read approximately half the actual because of the speeding-up of the sound through the Tungsten.

Problem is that it does require some technical knowledge to use the machine, so out of reach of retail investors and small coin dealers. It is probably prohibitively expensive as well.

I also think that it is fairly likely that the unintended consequence of commentators pushing the tungsten story is to drive mom & pop newbie gold investors into the ETFs. Making the decision to buying gold is a big change for the average investor and you can be sure they are seeking reassurance. Sow doubts in their mind about the "dangers" of physical gold and you will push them into ETFs, because mom & pop see them as regulated and thus safe. The very opposite of what many (if not all) commentators would want. I doubt they think about these consequences when they are looking for their next headline.