Seb
السبت، 30 يونيو 2012
S&P500 SPX E-mini Futures Elliott Wave H1 & H4 Update
Count re-labeled for possible double Zig-Zag pattern.
Seb
Seb
Crude Oil Futures Elliott Wave H1, Daily & Weekly Update
We might expect more upside to come as the cycle of minor wave 3 has finished and now price is running into trend line resistance. If broken, there is a couple of hurles before future advences including technical resistance @ 87.30 and big supply zone above that up to 90.
Seb
H1
Daily
Weekly
Seb
GBP/USD Elliott Wave H1 & H4 Update
Chart with two possible outcomes:
1. This impulsive wave up looke exhausted and we might expect no more high as the structure for WXY pattern looks completed. That means price will go down - black dashed line.
3. In case the hight of wave 2 would be taken out or if price would retrace only 38-50% of wave A then we might expect more upside to come as double Zig-Zag pattern will emerge to complete wave Y- red alt. count and lines.
Take care,
Seb
1. This impulsive wave up looke exhausted and we might expect no more high as the structure for WXY pattern looks completed. That means price will go down - black dashed line.
3. In case the hight of wave 2 would be taken out or if price would retrace only 38-50% of wave A then we might expect more upside to come as double Zig-Zag pattern will emerge to complete wave Y- red alt. count and lines.
Take care,
Seb
الجمعة، 29 يونيو 2012
...and quote of the day is:
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
― George Carlin
― George Carlin
EUR/USD Elliott Wave H1 Update + Gann Fan
EU Summit will dissapoint and we go down like no tomorrow.
But what the hell do I know anyway? :)
Seb
And Gann fan says: You shall not pass. :)
But what the hell do I know anyway? :)
Seb
GBP/USD Elliott Wave H1 Update
Looks like correction is done as ABC Irregular Flat.
More downside then?
Seb
More downside then?
Seb
GBP/JPY Elliott Wave H4 Update
Wave 5 is completed and cycle of wave 1 is completed.
Correction time and then more downside.
Seb
Correction time and then more downside.
Seb
AUD/USD Elliott Wave H4 Update
Well,
Looks like more corrective WXY pattern emerging. We need one more leg higher to complete the sequence.
Seb
Looks like more corrective WXY pattern emerging. We need one more leg higher to complete the sequence.
Seb
Crude Oil Elliott Wave Update H1 & Daily
Impulsive down move (wave 5) as indicated earlier.
Soon we will find out if this impulsive movement is completed or if it is just the leg 1 of a larger extended wave 5 to the downsiade.
Alternative count on chart.
New low means wave 3 is in progress. New high would confirm the bias to the upside corrective move.
Seb
Soon we will find out if this impulsive movement is completed or if it is just the leg 1 of a larger extended wave 5 to the downsiade.
Alternative count on chart.
New low means wave 3 is in progress. New high would confirm the bias to the upside corrective move.
Seb
الخميس، 28 يونيو 2012
...and by the way
... my Gann Fan resistance line on AUD/USD is doing good job.
I smell reversal candle...
Thanks!
Seb
I smell reversal candle...
Thanks!
Seb
الأربعاء، 27 يونيو 2012
GBP/JPY Elliott Wave H4 Update
Is correction done yet? Leg A looks done, the rest of remaining price action acts as ABC Flat is possible.#
Seb
Seb
USD/CHF Elliott Wave H1 Update
Leg A of ABC correction is Irregular flat. Leg C of that correction might end at the low of previous wave 4.
Seb
Seb
Crude Oil Elliott Wave H1, Daily, Weekly Update
We are missing one more wave to the downside to complete five wave sequence (red) of wave 3.
Please notice that 2 years old blue trend line was broken and tested.
Seb
Please notice that 2 years old blue trend line was broken and tested.
Seb
Lego gold mine - bubble top indicator?
Just the thing to turn your kids into little gold bugs - Lego's The Mine (my emphasis):
"Dig for gold deep inside the busy mine!
The Mine is a busy place, full of miners digging for gold! Break up the rock with the big drilling machine and transport it out of the mine with the train. Then load it onto the conveyer belt with the crane and haul it away with the truck! There's even a safe to keep the gold inside. Help the miners find even more gold by blasting with the dynamite! Includes 4 minifigures: crew chief, crane driver, driller and truck driver.
Accessories includes 3 dynamite packs, (1 with a timer), 2 detonators, 2 rocks each containing 6 gold nuggets, 36 small rocks in a selection of colors, 2 gold bars, explosion warning sign, storage box, jackhammer, fence with hazard lights, wheelbarrow, broom, shovel, pickaxe, walkie-talkie and coffee cup."
Crude Oil Elliott Wave H1 Update
As I said more bulls stepped in and the price went higher, breaking the triangle to the upside.
Nevertheless, the upside seems to be limited.
Seb
Nevertheless, the upside seems to be limited.
Seb
Crude Oil Elliott Wave H1 & H4 Update
The triangle pattern on M30 did not work out so it is time to consider that we got the wave 5 impulse of varius degrees already on chart and now it is time to consider more bullishness comming.
If 61%FibExp will not hold or at least blue line will not mark the wave Y top, any movement above the mentioned level looks more bullish.
So the question really is: which break out goes first?Downside from triangle on H4 on upside impulsive on H1?
Seb
H4 here:
If 61%FibExp will not hold or at least blue line will not mark the wave Y top, any movement above the mentioned level looks more bullish.
So the question really is: which break out goes first?Downside from triangle on H4 on upside impulsive on H1?
Seb
Crude Oil Elliott Wave H1 Update
Alternative Only Count: Triangle.
Right now is wave (iii) in progress I guess.
Seb
EDIT: COUNT INVALIDATED.
Right now is wave (iii) in progress I guess.
Seb
الثلاثاء، 26 يونيو 2012
Take risks with your career, not with your money
Some good advice from Permanent Portfolio advocate Craig Rowland in this interview with blogger Big Fat Purse:
"I believe people should take the risk in their career and not take risks with their money."
If you are young, "I would say for you, invest your money conservatively and go out and try different jobs. Try to start a company, try to start your own business, try that crazy idea that all the experts say will never work, try to build these things, take your risks in your career because you’re young enough and you can recover from that experience. This is a lot opposite from investment books. A lot of investment books encourage a lot of risk-taking in stocks when you’re young. But the thing is, if the bet doesn’t work, your savings are not going to grow."
"I tell people to be conservative with their money and take risks in their career and try to build wealth that way. And if they don’t want to take risk in their career I understand that too. There are people who don’t want to, but at the same time don’t assume you can replace your money. I think most people will be better served with a stable portfolio that’s not swinging in value because when it starts swinging in value, your emotions are going to get in the way and you’re going to make bad decisions."
The Permanet Portfolio is:
25% – Stocks (S&P 500 Index)
25% – Long Term US Treasury Bonds
25% – US Treasury Money Market Fund
25% – Gold
and "designed to weather a wide range of economic conditions (prosperity, inflation, deflation, recession) to protect and grow your money."
25% – Stocks (S&P 500 Index)
25% – Long Term US Treasury Bonds
25% – US Treasury Money Market Fund
25% – Gold
and "designed to weather a wide range of economic conditions (prosperity, inflation, deflation, recession) to protect and grow your money."
AUD/USD Elliott Wave H4 Update
Reverse can occur at any of Fib levels. I have marked the extreme retrace.
Seb
Seb
BIS says gold is a currency, not a commodity
From the Bank for International Settlements International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards:
Page 179
“Gold is to be dealt with as a foreign exchange position rather than a commodity because its volatility is more in line with foreign currencies and banks manage it in a similar manner to foreign currencies.”
Page 182
“718(xLiii). This section establishes a minimum capital standard to cover the risk of holding or taking positions in commodities, including precious metals, but excluding gold (which is treated as a foreign currency according to the methodology set out in paragraphs 718(xxx) to 718(xLii) above). ... The price risk in commodities is often more complex and volatile than that associated with currencies [ie gold] and interest rates. Commodity markets may also be less liquid than those for interest rates and currencies and, as a result, changes in supply and demand can have a more dramatic effect on price and volatility.”
Who's to argue with the eggheads at the BIS? Well, a lot of financial market people who hate gold always call it a commodity, which hides its special nature.
Any commodity with around 60 years of above ground inventory would have a price close to zero. The fact that gold has a price tells you it is not a commodity.
EUR/USD Elliott Wave H4 Update
A tiangle possibility is still in play as log as the price close below wave X and continue down to break wave 3 to the downside.
Triangle possibility is represented by alternative count.
Seb
Triangle possibility is represented by alternative count.
Seb
Crude Oil Elliott Wave H1 Update
Wave 3 down ended @ 261% FibExp almost to the pip.
Now wave 4 is grinding higher but after correction lower prices are expected.
Seb
Now wave 4 is grinding higher but after correction lower prices are expected.
Seb
S&P500 SPX E-mini Futures Elliott Wave H1 Update
Wave 3 down is over for now.
Pursuing with correction.
Seb
Pursuing with correction.
Seb
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