Interview with Al Korelin

Did an interview yesterday with Al Korelin on China. I don't have much time to listen to podcasts, but Al's is on my daily download list. Also, unusual for websites these days, his readership and comments are free from trolls and other idiots and you will usually find some insightful remarks. Worth adding to your RSS feeds.

Crude Oil H4 Update

Last bearish count has been invalidated, so I have re-labeled the count one degree higher, taking for granted that wave 1 black of wave 5 to the downside is finished for now.

Seb

Gold XAUUSD Daily Update

Looke like it wabt to test 1800 as a wave 5.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Trend line break out on news: that line must be tested to provide valid support. If it will be broken again to the downside then breakout is fake.
Count is void when 1.2971 is taken out. We might expect price can get to Weekly Pivot then.


Seb

Negative lease rate confusion, again

Jeff Nielson again (see here for previously) proves he knows little about the gold market with this post on negative lease rates. See this comment of Jeff's for a seriously confused guy:

Let me explain this one more time.

GOFO is the "nominal" lease rate. As you (and others) have observed, you SUBTRACT LIBOR from that number to get the "real" lease rate.

Understand that LIBOR is a PROXY for inflation here. So this calculation essentially strips out inflation to tell us the REAL rate at which the banksters are leasing their gold...and when that (real) rate is negative it implies a fraud on the market.

LIBOR = inflation, GOFO = nominal lease rate, huh? My response:

Jeff, GOFO is not a nominal lease rate and LIBOR is not a proxy for inflation.

GOFO is a gold foward (ie future) rate. It is not a lease rate, nominal or real. Technically, as per http://www.lbma.org.uk/assets/OTCguide20081117.pdf it is "rates at which the Market Making Members will lend gold on swap against US dollars". What many people do is focus on the "will lend" and miss the "on swap".

I also don't get how you think LIBOR is a proxy for inflation. Are you seriously saying that 1 year inflation rates are 1%? Shadow Stats I think would disagree with you. LIBOR is the "cost of borrowing unsecured funds" as per http://www.bbalibor.com/

Finally, the Perth Mint does actually borrow gold from bullion bankers from time to time and I can confirm that we are not being paid to do so.

As at today, no counter response by Jeff even though the livefyre commenting system is showing him as "listening". Same MO as my Seeking Alpha exchange with him - just ignore the comment when its is clear you've lost the argument.

EUR/USD H1 Update

Alternative count invalidation line added.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

A lot of confusion.

Seb

Crude Oil Futures H4 Update

The price is below weekly pivot and weekly break line.
So far smash down continues.


Seb

GBP/JPY H4 Update + Gann Fan

Five waves down since the wave XX high can be easy counted. Shall we continue with more weakness? Time will tell.

Gann Fan lines are showing distribution so far and that supports the count.

Seb

USD/CHf H4 Update

Nice rejection straight into the right border Fibonacci Time Cluster window.

Seb

S&P500 E-mini Futures Update

Nice moves.

Breake above 1440 would void the immediate bearish count.

Seb

DAX Futures Daily Update

Please take it with the grain of salt due to the fact that wave 2 has finished between two Fibonacci Expansions.


Seb

AUD/USD H4 Update

Zig-Zag wave (c) as a wave 2 end looks good.
And it ended right on support area of dark orange rectangle: 61% of FiboRetracment and demand zone line.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Count updated with alternative labeling in case wave 4 has finished.

Seb

S&P500 E-mini Futures H4 Update

For the Bears:
Let's see if WS2 will hold.
If not we might be quite close to assumption that top is in.

Seb

AUD/USD H4 Update

WS1 hit and 61% Fibo Expansion hit.
 Nice confluence in price and time (FTC) for wave b end.

Count re-labeled one degree higher.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

So far so good.

Seb

Can US Govt seize Perth Mint client gold?

You may be interested in my response to this comment left in the Permanent Portfolio Discussion Forum:

"Perth is good, but I trust Australia less than Uncle Sam. ... If I put my assets in Australia, I not only need to worry about Australia's government seizing my assets in times of their need... but I also have to worry about the US State Departments ability to basically extradite the assets back (and me personally) to the United States under the guise of fraudulent transfer or tax evasion when Uncle Sam is in need."

 

It in I discuss the one occurance we have had of a request by US authorities for a client's gold to be handed over to a US court.

 

Unrelated - this is my new favourite blog Paper Money Shield who's mission is "Defending paper money from the rigorous attacks of precious metal advocates."

Crude Oil H4 Update

Well,
Shall we label Wave 2 might have ended sooner than expected?

Seb

GOLD XAU/USD DAILY Update

This alternative WXY count is just in case wave 4 hasn't really finished...


Seb

Crude Oil H4 Update

ABC Flat forming as a wave 2?

Seb

SLV bars found in Bullionvault and Goldmoney!

I said to Warren he needed to sex up his post titles but he declined - I suppose it detracts from the serious approach he is taking to this ETF bar list analysis project. Doesn't stop me from using a headline grabbing title however. Another interesting post on what goes on inside the secretive LBMA "chain of integrity" vaults: http://screwtapefiles.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/slv-database-4.html

EUR/USD Daily Gann Fan Update

If price break through 1.2900 level, it will reach 1.2800 very fast.
The first support then is 1x1 Gann Fan Line somewhere 1.2750 level.

Seb

EUR/JPY H4 Update

EUR/JPY H4: Weekly Pivot - Rejected. Weekly Support 1 - Rejected. No price hit the Fibo Price Cluster and 38% of whole wave 3 retracment. This might be wave 4 bottom. If it is then it is rather very bullish due to the fact 38% is fairly shallow retracment. But I wonder if wave Y of WXY structure will develop into full blown ipulsive wave and penetrate previous wave 4 teritory and 50% retracment level.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

EUR/USD H1: At 1.2887 wave Y is 61& of wave W. At 1.2800 :Y=W. So far FTC hold nicely wave b up in three waves. Now we got:
- three waves down as wave c of Y is finished at 61%
- 1-2-3 waves down as we wait for futher waves 4 and 5 to develop full five wave
structure to the downside. It might even get to the 1.28000 level

The high/low that will be taken out first would determine futher price action.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 FTC Update

Fibonacci Time Cluster Update: form H4 time clusters - start: 24.09.12   20:00
                                                                                          stop:  25.09.12   04:00

Seb

USD/CHF H4 Update

Untested area around 61% of Fibo retracment but first hurdle to pass is 23% area. If we will not pass that, correction could be deeper.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Chart with weekly pivots.

Looks like z Zig-Zag might be forming on H1 TF. Ideal target is 1.28000, extended target is bottom of Untested Area.

Seb

Crude Oil Daily Update

Lines are Weekly Pivots Supports and Resistance.

Seb

Gold XAUUSD Daily Update

Possible Fibo Extensions as the end of wave 3.

Seb

$AAPL Apple Daily Update

Gap cues anyone?

Seb

EUR/JPY H4 Update

Price action into FTC: look like we might have a new leg down to complete the wave 4 Zig-Zag.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update + Gann Fan

Some moderate FTC on Monday evening going into early Tuesday with normal score about 100. Might act as the end of this corrective move I guess.


Seb

S&P500 E-mini Futures H4 & Daily Update

Daily for the bulls: looks like wave 3 is finished and now we are in wave 4 correction. upside potential targets on chart.

H4 for the bears: still counting this as Double Threes Upward Corrective pattern as presented by R.N.Elliott in his book. As far as I'm concerned we need three waves up to finish last wave 3 - so far impulsive five wave structure has been counted as wave (a), now we are in wave (b) corrective area.

Empty Letter

Received a letter from the US yesterday addressed - GCORP ATT: Bron Sucheki - and sent air mail with four First Class Forever 2009 dated stamps on it.

 

Funny thing is, it was empty. Don't know if this was meant as some symbolic message (I'm an empty person) or USA goons have intercepted it and removed the offending letter.

 

Very weird.

 

While on the topic of unusual letters, in December 2008 we received a series of four letters addressed to "The Director" just signed Michael. Some samples (I kept them, of course) from the letters:

 

"Gold is going into the stratosphere once the Central Bank controlled, fractional reserve, fiat paper, thin-air monetary and banking system collapses very soon."

 

"Are you happy as Director of the Perth Mint to be parting with gold (and silver) at a price that bears no resemblance to the underlying demand? A price that is doctored by the Illuminati banking shysters to prop up their iniquitous fiat paper money extortion racket against the human race?"

Crude Oil H4 & Daily Update

On Daily chart we can see that price hit 78.6% Fibo Retracment level as a wave 4 top and DID NOT overlapse wave 1 from this bearish impulsive count.

On H4 we can see that the price is on 38%Fib Retracment of latest wave 4up and we need futher price progress to be sure that top is in, like breaking 50 and 61% of Fibo Retracment.

Right now first clue (break of previous wave 4 of lesser degree in impulsive fashion) favours more bearishness yet to come.

Seb

GBP/USD H4 Update

My last stake on this pair: the price is very close to invalidate the bearish impulsive count.

Money Flow indicator shows that no one is buying this move up (about 250pips in divergence)

Non-Linear regression model shows the move to the downward direction might have just started. Similar situation on H4.

Seb

GBP/JPY H4 Update

Looks like FTC hold the move upward.

If this is wave XX top we might fall hard from here.


Seb

EUR/JPY H4 Update

Like in a book.

Please notice very high readings in FTC on Friday, score over 150 points.

Right now we can count 5 waves down in wave c that would more or less fit 1.618% of wave a.


Seb

AUD/USD H4 Update

Another crucial level I guess.

Please notice very high score on the begining of the FTC cluser - over 150.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update

Crucial level is Weekly Pivot Level.

Eyes on Spanish auction.

Please notice the FTC on H4 has ended just now.


Seb

AUD/USD H4 Update

Almost there.

Seb

GBP/JPY H4 Update

Straight into FTC and 61% FiboExpansion.

The question is will it hold?

Seb

EUR/JPY H4 Update

Wave 4 is comming.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Weekly Pivot Broken. WS1 here we come.

Seb

China has 6,355 tonnes of gold

Further to my article on Chinese gold imports, I have a follow up analysis of China's gold stock at the corporate blog.

OK, 6355 tonnes is a little too precise given the opaque nature of the gold market, but the point is that a reasoned approach means that China holds circa this number. I also estimate that of that number, official gold reserves are likely to be 1560 tonnes (not 6000 tonnes like this silly Zero Hedge post, which overstated China's gold import figures as well).

Deutsche Bank explains why we hoard gold

$AAPL Apple Daily Update

We are in wave 5 of wave 3. Correction is due soon.


Seb

EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update

Not much to add, just a couple od FTC today from 11 to 14.
Please notice the weekly pivot levels.

Seb