Seb
الجمعة، 30 نوفمبر 2012
Gold XAUUSD H4 Update
The trade is deep in red but I'm waiting for the trend to resume: the price retraced almost 61% of spike down. Silver retaced all spike down so that might be a clue...
SL did not work after $25/minute spike down...
Seb
SL did not work after $25/minute spike down...
Seb
GBP/JPY H1 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
If this is the beginning of the wave 3 I want ot be in this trade. Waiting for some pullbacks and buying the dips.
Entry: Buy Limit @ 131.48
SL:132.25
TP: min. 133 ( into fibo cluster)
Take care,
Seb
If this is the beginning of the wave 3 I want ot be in this trade. Waiting for some pullbacks and buying the dips.
Entry: Buy Limit @ 131.48
SL:132.25
TP: min. 133 ( into fibo cluster)
Take care,
Seb
EUR/JPY H1 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
My Buy Limit order has never been filled desplite the fact that I have been expecting depper correction into weekly pivot.
Right now this long order from a top is a HEDGE TRADE against EUR/USD that I short. If something goes wrong and EUR/USD will pop higher the at leat this trade on EUR/JPY will cover partial losses and I'm eager to buy more if this is really wave 3 now.
Entry: Buy Market @ 107.57 (unfortunetly on top, oh well...)
SL: Below Orange rectangle.
TP:?
Take care,
Seb
My Buy Limit order has never been filled desplite the fact that I have been expecting depper correction into weekly pivot.
Right now this long order from a top is a HEDGE TRADE against EUR/USD that I short. If something goes wrong and EUR/USD will pop higher the at leat this trade on EUR/JPY will cover partial losses and I'm eager to buy more if this is really wave 3 now.
Entry: Buy Market @ 107.57 (unfortunetly on top, oh well...)
SL: Below Orange rectangle.
TP:?
Take care,
Seb
ETF Price Suppression Mechanics
I've got a response up to Andrew Maguire's TF Metals Report article on the corporate blog "explaining" how bullion banks use ETFs to suppress the prices of gold and silver.
I wasn't planning on it turning into a 5200 word, 12 page article, but so many memes to set straight (do ETFs have the gold, ETF market making, share borrowing, 100:1 fractional reserve bullion banking) plus Andrew really didn't explain the "mechanics" very well.
I suspect Andrew expropriated Victor's idea about the ETFs being used as a source of metal, far too many similarities I think (eg reference to "inventory financing" and the selling and buying GLD versus unallocated strategies). Andrew really got himself into a knot however in explaining these.
I've had it on my to-do list to address Victor's post in detail, and I have sort of done that with this Andrew response, but it does not address Victor's inventory changes and "inventory strategy", for which I need time to analyse the numbers in detail myself.
I look forward to Victor rebutting my comments, which will be funny because he'll be supporting Andrew at the same time in a way.
One point I would make is that Andrew's post was originally written for TF's "Army" members. Ignoring the factual errors, the best that can be said is it was written in a slapdash way, stream of consciousness style, without much effort in writing simply and clearly. I would have thought paying members deserve better.
I was a bit suspicious when Andrew "arrived" out of nowhere with his evidence and then surprise, he shortly thereafter had a service to sell at http://www.coghlancapital.com/. Not supplying his CV also doesn't help (but FYI he has his own Wikipedia page). I also don't buy TF's explanation that Andrew "doesn't talk to ANYONE because of the ongoing CFTC investigation and the current silver manipulation civil lawsuit" - releasing a CV isn't going to be a problem in that respect. Jeff Christian has made a big deal about the CV, so why not bury him now on that matter?
Anyway, this article by Andrew has just got me asking more questions about him. This may seem like small stuff, but:
1. Andrew's use of "spot index" - this is not how London bullion traders talk (and I checked with a bullion bank contact to make sure and they said that phrase is not used).
2. Getting the number of GLD's APs massively wrong.
3. Borrowing shares "from the ETF".
4. "Allocated at the fix."
These are just not mistakes someone with deep knowledge of the bullion market would make. I note that his Coghlin website About section says "the last 19 years of which have been as a metals specialist" - doesn't say "precious metals specialist". My best guess at this time is he is a trader of base metals who made the switch to precious metals as that is the hot market and doesn't want to release his CV because it is hard to get people to pay you for precious metal trading advice if you can't demonstrate experience in that market.
Hey, this speculating without any facts and making stuff up is fun and easy. I should do more of it, everyone is doing it you know.
I was a bit suspicious when Andrew "arrived" out of nowhere with his evidence and then surprise, he shortly thereafter had a service to sell at http://www.coghlancapital.com/. Not supplying his CV also doesn't help (but FYI he has his own Wikipedia page). I also don't buy TF's explanation that Andrew "doesn't talk to ANYONE because of the ongoing CFTC investigation and the current silver manipulation civil lawsuit" - releasing a CV isn't going to be a problem in that respect. Jeff Christian has made a big deal about the CV, so why not bury him now on that matter?
Anyway, this article by Andrew has just got me asking more questions about him. This may seem like small stuff, but:
1. Andrew's use of "spot index" - this is not how London bullion traders talk (and I checked with a bullion bank contact to make sure and they said that phrase is not used).
2. Getting the number of GLD's APs massively wrong.
3. Borrowing shares "from the ETF".
4. "Allocated at the fix."
These are just not mistakes someone with deep knowledge of the bullion market would make. I note that his Coghlin website About section says "the last 19 years of which have been as a metals specialist" - doesn't say "precious metals specialist". My best guess at this time is he is a trader of base metals who made the switch to precious metals as that is the hot market and doesn't want to release his CV because it is hard to get people to pay you for precious metal trading advice if you can't demonstrate experience in that market.
Hey, this speculating without any facts and making stuff up is fun and easy. I should do more of it, everyone is doing it you know.
AUD/USD H4 Update
Just noticed that wave (d) might have finished in only three waves:red ABC where wave C is in three waves as well. If it is so, we now should see somehow more evident bearish pressure to the downside. but so far 50% and 61% provide the support so I will stick with the orginal count idea: wave (d), wave C have not finished the move to the upside just yet.
From this point of view any move below Fibo support makes Bullish development less probable.
Seb
From this point of view any move below Fibo support makes Bullish development less probable.
Seb
الخميس، 29 نوفمبر 2012
EUR/USD M30 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
Unclear situation now, two differnet count in play but I'm short after Germany data due to my count showing correction time.
There is one more count on H4 time fram I had posted yesterday. It indicates that this small wave (a) or alt:2 might be just sharp correction wave 4 really and we still have wave 5 to come.
There is another possibility showing that my top of wave 3 from yesterday is really wave (i) of expanding wave 5 and there is more upside to come.
So, I'm going to play short first but if any new hight occours on London open I'm long playing extended wave 5 scenario.
Entry: Sell @ 1.3020
SL: Any new high.
Entry: Buy Market after new high. Any good price.
SL: 20 pips ( or below 1.3000)
TP: 61% of Fibo Extension of wave 3.
Take care,
Seb
Unclear situation now, two differnet count in play but I'm short after Germany data due to my count showing correction time.
There is one more count on H4 time fram I had posted yesterday. It indicates that this small wave (a) or alt:2 might be just sharp correction wave 4 really and we still have wave 5 to come.
There is another possibility showing that my top of wave 3 from yesterday is really wave (i) of expanding wave 5 and there is more upside to come.
So, I'm going to play short first but if any new hight occours on London open I'm long playing extended wave 5 scenario.
Entry: Sell @ 1.3020
SL: Any new high.
Entry: Buy Market after new high. Any good price.
SL: 20 pips ( or below 1.3000)
TP: 61% of Fibo Extension of wave 3.
Take care,
Seb
EUR/USD H4 Update (alt count)
Silver XAGUSD H4 Update
It looks like one more small wave 5 is missing inside this huge bullish candles to finish wave 5 green and start the corrective wave 4.
Seb
Seb
AUD/USD H4 Update
Buy Limit order has been activated into this Fibo Ret.
Stop is just below wave 4.
Seb
Stop is just below wave 4.
Seb
GBP/USD H4 Update
HI, My name is British Pound and I do not know what I want and what I'm doing so please do not trad eme because I'm a devil's currency...
Seb
Seb
EUR/JPY H1 Update
Still in corrective mode but new high might start the wave 3 to develop and current wave a would be wave 1 then.
Seb
Seb
EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update
Last wave up has ended in five impulsive waves: impulse wave 1, abc flat correction wave 2, impulse wave 3, abcde correction wave 4 and ending diagonal wave 5. Then sharp wave (a) in three waves to the downside.
I'm trackin now two possible counts:
1. We are done with big impulsive wave 1 and now is big time correction comming.
2. We are not done with big impulsive wave 1 are this move up was just wave B Zig-Zag.
Line invalidating count is still in play at the end of smaller degree wave 1.
Seb
I'm trackin now two possible counts:
1. We are done with big impulsive wave 1 and now is big time correction comming.
2. We are not done with big impulsive wave 1 are this move up was just wave B Zig-Zag.
Line invalidating count is still in play at the end of smaller degree wave 1.
Seb
EUR/USD M30 & H1 Update
Ending diagonal invalidated but we are very close to finish this wave up.
Correction is due.
Seb
EDIT : I know wevae 3 green is kind of small, so I might re-label it as wave 1 of lower degree if price would break to the upside
Correction is due.
Seb
EDIT : I know wevae 3 green is kind of small, so I might re-label it as wave 1 of lower degree if price would break to the upside
EUR/JPY H1 Update
First signs of MACD Divergence on H1 TF but momentum still strong.
Watching the previous highs area.
Seb
Watching the previous highs area.
Seb
EUR/USD M30 Update
Bears last hope is this waves up are part of a wave B Zig-Zag.
But they look bullish as hell....
Seb
But they look bullish as hell....
Seb
الأربعاء، 28 نوفمبر 2012
Silver XAGUSD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
Still waiting for wave 5 to complete. Buying dips.
Entry: Buy Limit @ 33.65 (fibo Support)
SL: 33.40
TP: 33.90 min.
Take care,
Seb
Still waiting for wave 5 to complete. Buying dips.
Entry: Buy Limit @ 33.65 (fibo Support)
SL: 33.40
TP: 33.90 min.
Take care,
Seb
S&P500 Futures H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
Buying into support in anticipation of futher expansion of wave (c) or 3 to the upside.
Entry: Buy Limit 1407.
SL:1399
TP: 1421 min
R/R: 3:1
Take care,
Seb
Buying into support in anticipation of futher expansion of wave (c) or 3 to the upside.
Entry: Buy Limit 1407.
SL:1399
TP: 1421 min
R/R: 3:1
Take care,
Seb
AUD/USD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
Still expecting final push to the upside as a wave 5.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.0455 (23%FiboRet)
SL:20pips
TP: 1.0500 min.
R/R: 2:1
Take care,
Seb
Still expecting final push to the upside as a wave 5.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.0455 (23%FiboRet)
SL:20pips
TP: 1.0500 min.
R/R: 2:1
Take care,
Seb
GBP/USD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
Buying dips in anticipation of wave 3.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.6003 (round number, 23%Fibo Ret)
SL: 1.5960 (below the low)
TP: 1.6050 min.
Take care,
Seb
Buying dips in anticipation of wave 3.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.6003 (round number, 23%Fibo Ret)
SL: 1.5960 (below the low)
TP: 1.6050 min.
Take care,
Seb
NASDAQ Futures H4 Update
Rationale:
From the yestersday's low of I see an impulse wave up that can be considered as a wave 1 from the bullish point of view. So right now I'm buyng the dips of this wave because I expect wave c to the upside to develop.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 2658.50 (Support)
SL: 2654
TP: 2690
Take care,
Seb
From the yestersday's low of I see an impulse wave up that can be considered as a wave 1 from the bullish point of view. So right now I'm buyng the dips of this wave because I expect wave c to the upside to develop.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 2658.50 (Support)
SL: 2654
TP: 2690
Take care,
Seb
EUR/JPY H1 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
Impilsive wave 1 from yesterday low has not been finished yet so I'm buying the dips in anticipation of wave 5 to the upside. When the big wave 1 will be completed I will buy the dips on the Fibo Retacements or Pivot Points again in anticipation of strong wave 3 to develop.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 106.08
SL:105.97 ( below that line bullish count will be invalidated)
TP:106.55 min.
Take care,
Seb
Impilsive wave 1 from yesterday low has not been finished yet so I'm buying the dips in anticipation of wave 5 to the upside. When the big wave 1 will be completed I will buy the dips on the Fibo Retacements or Pivot Points again in anticipation of strong wave 3 to develop.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 106.08
SL:105.97 ( below that line bullish count will be invalidated)
TP:106.55 min.
Take care,
Seb
EUR/USD M30 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
From the yestersday's low of 1.2880 I see an impulse wave up that can be considered as a wave 1 from the bullish point of view. So right now I'm buyng the dips of wave c because I expect wave 3 to the upside to develop.
Entry:
Buy Market @ 1.2943 (23%FiboRet), Buy Limit 1.2930 (38%FiboRet) and Buy Limit 1.2921 (Weekly Pivot)
SL: below weekly pivot
TP: 1.3000
Take care,
Seb
From the yestersday's low of 1.2880 I see an impulse wave up that can be considered as a wave 1 from the bullish point of view. So right now I'm buyng the dips of wave c because I expect wave 3 to the upside to develop.
Entry:
Buy Market @ 1.2943 (23%FiboRet), Buy Limit 1.2930 (38%FiboRet) and Buy Limit 1.2921 (Weekly Pivot)
SL: below weekly pivot
TP: 1.3000
Take care,
Seb
DAX30 Futures H4 Update
Very impulsive count here so it can be only wave (a) or a part of a Zig-Zag.
Seb
Seb
S&P500 Futures H4 Update
Looks like wave (b) is ready and market can make even deeper correction in wave 2.
Seb
Seb
Gold XAUUSD H4 Update
My long position are deep in red after $25 candle down in 1min.
I refuse to close this longs for now but below 1700 I'm out.
Seb
I refuse to close this longs for now but below 1700 I'm out.
Seb
USD/CHF H4 Update + Trade Plan Idea
Rationale:
Shorting wave 4 retracement as this pair needs one more wave to the downside to comple the cycle according to my count.
Entry:
Sell Limit @ 0.9370 (50% FiboRet, Weekly Resistance and former resistance level)
SL: 0.9405 (above 61%FiboRet level my count will be invalidated)
TP: 0.9250 min.
R/R: 4:1
Take care,
Seb
Shorting wave 4 retracement as this pair needs one more wave to the downside to comple the cycle according to my count.
Entry:
Sell Limit @ 0.9370 (50% FiboRet, Weekly Resistance and former resistance level)
SL: 0.9405 (above 61%FiboRet level my count will be invalidated)
TP: 0.9250 min.
R/R: 4:1
Take care,
Seb
EUR/USD M30 Update + Trade Plan Idea
Rationale:
Previous wave 4 area in my count might provide nice long opportunity + 38% FiboRet.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.2873
SL:20pips.
TP:1.2940 and beyond ( I wish!)
R/R: min. 2:1
Take care,
Seb
Previous wave 4 area in my count might provide nice long opportunity + 38% FiboRet.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.2873
SL:20pips.
TP:1.2940 and beyond ( I wish!)
R/R: min. 2:1
Take care,
Seb
EUR/AUD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
Waiting for wave (2) end at one of the retracement levels and buy into dips.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.2340 (50%) and 1.2320 (61%).
SL:1.2299
TP: Above 1.2435 min.
R/R: about 3:1
Take care,
Seb
Waiting for wave (2) end at one of the retracement levels and buy into dips.
Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.2340 (50%) and 1.2320 (61%).
SL:1.2299
TP: Above 1.2435 min.
R/R: about 3:1
Take care,
Seb
DAX30 Futures H4 Update + Trade Plan Idea
Rationale:
Short in anticipating of wave c to the downside.
Entry:
Short Market @ 7319.50
SL: 7337.50
TP: 7280 ( I might go out sooner if I see no impulsive progression: never let winner become loser)
R/R:7:1
Take care,
Seb
Short in anticipating of wave c to the downside.
Entry:
Short Market @ 7319.50
SL: 7337.50
TP: 7280 ( I might go out sooner if I see no impulsive progression: never let winner become loser)
R/R:7:1
Take care,
Seb
EUR/USD M30 Update + Trading Plan Idea
Rationale:
No impulsive progression to the upside, expecting deeper pull back in wave 4 now.
Long form 1.2920: CLOSED ar +1.
Entry:
SHORT MARKET @ 1.2916
SL: Above todays high
TP: idealy 1.2877 (38% Fibo Ret)
Might work might not: any spike above todays high and I'm long again.
Seb
No impulsive progression to the upside, expecting deeper pull back in wave 4 now.
Long form 1.2920: CLOSED ar +1.
Entry:
SHORT MARKET @ 1.2916
SL: Above todays high
TP: idealy 1.2877 (38% Fibo Ret)
Might work might not: any spike above todays high and I'm long again.
Seb
EUR/USD M30 Update + Trade Plan Idea
No impulsive wave following so called (a) wave indicates more downside risk instead of end of a wave 4.
Seb
EDIT: Orginal plan:
Chart Update: nice five waves movement in last wave down.
Rationale:
I'm looking for wave c to finish in 5 waves @ 1.2920 - 1.2905 ara and buy there a small amount in case this will not be the end of wave c.
Entry @ 1.2920, 1.2905, and 1.2890
SL:1.2885
TP: above 1.30000
R/R: average is min 2:1
Seb
EDIT: Orginal plan:
Chart Update: nice five waves movement in last wave down.
Rationale:
I'm looking for wave c to finish in 5 waves @ 1.2920 - 1.2905 ara and buy there a small amount in case this will not be the end of wave c.
Entry @ 1.2920, 1.2905, and 1.2890
SL:1.2885
TP: above 1.30000
R/R: average is min 2:1
الاشتراك في:
الرسائل (Atom)