الجمعة، 31 مايو 2013

Crude Oil H1 VSA CFD Futures Update

So far it would be according to wave progression to see one more wave to the upside into one of the mentioned distribution areas to complete wave c and then further downside movement is needed.

Only new high would invalidate the view.

Seb

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Gold XAUUSD H1 VSA Update

Quite possible wave (4) top is in and $1400 is first resistance before wave (5) resumes.

A sustained break above TL will invalidate the outlook.

Seb

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EUR/USD CFD Futures M15 Update

Thie first wave after wave 2 top is not impulsive so  this might be not the end of further upside movement.
Look at previous wave 4 area - if broken, then we might see lower prices.

The 1.2950 - 1.2945 is the key level for bulls.


Seb

الخميس، 30 مايو 2013

Gold and silver market status update

An update to my previous posts here and here on the state of the gold and silver markets as the Perth Mint sees them. Coin demand (retail and wholesale) has also eased but still good. Our retail outlet in Perth is quiet.

On the gold kilobar market, premiums have come off a bit but are still way above normal levels. This market action is confirmed by Warren "the ETF bar list guru" James at Screwtape Files who has observed a clear preference by bullion banks to choose 99.99% 400oz bars rather than 99.5% bars when redeeming physical from the ETFs as investors sell up, as the 99.99% bars can just be melted down and recast into kilobars (no refining required) and sold at a premium. Warren will have a post on his blog showing this graphically when he gets time.

On the Depository front, over the past few weeks we are now seeing net selling. It seems a bit of that is clients selling up part of their holdings and switching into equities. This may reflect what Financial Sense Newshour said in this podcast where they have clients who originally had a modest allocation percentage into precious metals but after the bull market (and no rebalancing) they are now sitting on excessive allocations of say 75%. Clients may have been induced into rebalancing with gold not showing any signs (yet) that a rapid rise is coming combined with the stock market showing gains.
We have also seen some physical collections of metal in Depository, mostly silver but minor quantities overall. The net loss in Depository is modest an similar to the percentage losses Bullion Vault, GoldMoney and BMG Bullion are also showing, according to Sharelynx's Transparent Holdings page (you'll need to subscribe if you want to see the data). The ETFs have been showing a lot more percentage losses than PM, BV, GM and BMG have, which reflects I think our more retail (strong hand) client base.

I don't know how to read this market behaviour. Weak investor sentiment like this could portend a bottom, but it could also make the market suseptible to a sell off if the April price smash entity decides to test the market's strength again as it need not worry about position limits and the CFTC catching them out.

Gene Arensberg at Got Gold Report also sees the market as “very imbalanced” and “dangerous for both sides of the battlefield.” with the largest hedgers of gold are positioned as though they see very little downside left, while on the other the Funds, while still net long gold, have put on their largest gross short position since the disaggregated data begins in 2006

Further confusing messages comes from the contrast between James Turk and the Royal Canadian Mint. James Turk reports some stress in the wholesale markets (although I think when he says that "some of the larger orders to buy bars have been moving out to as long as T+5, which is extraordinary" he is referring to kilobar, not 400oz bars, as GoldMoney isn't showing premiums or delays for their 400oz bar backed product) and that "the buyer or buyers who pushed the gold price up during the London PM fix yesterday were obviously desperate to get their hands on physical metal and were prepared to pay whatever price it took to obtain it".
Then we have this Globe and Mail article which notes that the Royal Canadian Mint's gold and silver exchange-traded receipts were trading at a 1.7% and 1% discount on Wednesday. The fact that "major investors holding at least 10,000 of the gold ETRs or 5,000 of the silver ones could also redeem them for metal and acquire holdings at a below-market price" certainly isn't reflective of a shortage in the wholesale markets.

At this time I think I agree with Gene: "We have to admire the courage of those willing to sell gold short in this, very imbalanced environment, knowing that a reversal could occur any moment and that it could be epic in its violence. Rest assured we have neither the courage nor the inclination to do so ourselves."

EUR/USD H1 Update

Bearish Gartley on 1.3040.
78.6% is line in the sand for this count - if broken EURUSD might even make a new high above 1.3300

Seb


Soybeans Futures H4 Update

Two possible count for wave (X), both valid.

Currently, the complex and time consuming wave 2 in blue circle looks finished: very big (W)(X)(Y).

Somehow first impulsive wave (i) might be in place, my guess is one more wave to the upside is needed to finish the cycle for wave (ii), but it can not go higher then last top high.

Seb

الأربعاء، 29 مايو 2013

Hedging against price changes

Slow Loris Larry asked a few questions around who loses when prices decline and how do industry participants protect themselves against price declines.

SLL: I understand that the Perth Mint does not, as it owns no precious metal. It stores allocated metal for account holders, and it backs its unallocated accounts with metal that is being refined, or fabricated, or is for sale. Being a Mint account holder, both allocated and unallocated, I know full well who is exposed to changes in the prices, both up and down. However, the Perth Mint’s ‘business model’ is apparently unique in that it doesn’t involve hedges. How about other refiners, fabricators, and purveyors of precious metal products, particularly at the wholesale level?

The Perth Mint's business model is unusual, but certainly not unique. It can also be considered a "hedge" similar to the other two common hedging methods, being futures or forwards. The reason it is unusual is because leasing (or renting) gold outright requires the person lending to you to trust you. Futures and forwards involve initial margin deposits and margin calls as the way the lender can manage their risk that you won't honor your side of the hedge.

SLL: I know, from past experience, that Local Coin Shops always know what the current going wholesale prices are, and will still phone a wholesaler when a large transaction is in the offing in order to lock in a guaranteed price that they can make a profit on. Fair enough, or they couldn’t stay in business.

That sort of back-to-back buy then sell is also a form of hedge. However, some smaller dealers do not do this and are prepared to take some risk to the price. That probably seemed a good idea while the gold price was mostly rising. However, consider this Bloomberg article:

The prospect of losses has made retailers who buy used gold and the middlemen who sell to refiners unwilling to part with metal purchased at higher costs. “Nobody is selling right now, and it’s survival of the fittest,” said Dan Nektal of 46th Street Buyers in New York, which has been in the jewelry business for three decades. “If you bought at $1,700, how can you sell at the moment? Everybody’s presuming it’s going to go back up.”

I would guess this happens because their transaction sizes are too small to hedge on futures markets. However, dealers could use FX trading or contracts for difference websites to hedge small quantities, but that does require some financial knowledge to know what you're doing.

SLL: But how about the larger operations? How do they hedge their stock against price movements, particularly to the downside, as they will profit from price increases on stock they hold but cannot let themselves be unprotected from downside risks if they want to remain in business.

I would be surprised if any larger organisation did not hedge themselves, both from price movements down and up. These businesses buy their inventory and then short it; they are hedging their stock. Consider that most of the gold sitting around in the inventories of refiners, mints, coin dealers etc is hedged and ultimately shows up in COMEX and OTC markets as a base amount of short positions.

Now some of the larger organisations may not fully hedge their inventory, say only hedging 90% of their inventory if they thought that the price would rise. This to my mind is speculation and should not be related to, or accounted for, as part of the profitability of the underlying business.

SLL: I know that spreads tend to increase when ‘spot’ prices go down, but only temporarily and sooner or later adjust to lower prevailing prices. I also understand that, eventually at least, miners will only be able to sell the partially refined metal that they produce at the lower prevailing prices. But there are lags at all stages from mine output to retail sales.

To the extent that a small operation doesn't have the volume to fully hedge every transaction, then increasing spreads are one way to manage the risk of having bought at higher prices. That would create some friction in the flow of gold through the value chain, but I don't think it would be an issue at the bigger end of the chain, as they would have much better hedging processes.

SLL: If one looks at the COMEX, which is not really intended to be a major vehicle for delivery of large amounts of physical metal, it is basically a ‘zero sum game’, or speculators’ market , with clear winners and losers on every contract. Do large bullion buyers and sellers hedge their holdings of physical metal there with paper contracts? Or is most of the necessary hedging done on the LBM Over-the-Counter unallocated market, where there are presumably also clear winners and losers, at least over time?

Futures markets don't need to physically receive or deliver metal to perform their hedging function for the industry properly. A supplier and customer can independently sell and buy futures contracts with speculators on the other side of their contracts. When the gold is ready the supplier can sell to the customer at current spot prices and physically ship the gold to the customer, nothing going through COMEX warehouses. The supplier and customer then independently close out their futures contracts. From this viewpoint, COMEX warehouse changes would only occur when there are changes in the amount of gold in the entire value chain or when there are timing differences between participants in the value chain.

Which market is used depends on the country. In the case of the US or Japan, then most hedging probably goes on in their futures markets. For countries without a futures market, possibly bullion bank OTC transactions are more prevalent.

SLL: But the main players on the LBM are the Bullion Banks, are they not? Do they hedge against price declines with short forward contracts? If so, who are their counter parties, other Bullion Banks? Or Central Banks? Or just big speculators, like hedge funds? Dumb money, in other words? Again, someone has to loose when prices go down. So who are the losers when the evil manipulators crash the COMEX derived ‘spot’ price? Or alternatively, do efficient markets just naturally balance excess supply and declining demand with lower prices?

My view is that bullion banks, like all the other participants, are mostly hedged, that they act primarily as brokers or intermediaries between speculators, small or large. Sure, they have their own speculative positions, but it would be minor compared to the entire industry's hedging requirements. It is not like they just sit there and take whatever net position the industry has on to their own books. It is a process of the bullion banks taking on a client's position and then finding another market participant to hedge that position against that makes the price move.

In respect of the inventory of gold sitting in the value chain, the futures, fowards, and leasing markets are just mechanisms by which investors effectively "own" that inventory and take the risk of changes in the gold price away from the businesses in the value chain. While the financial markets may have become a casino and dominated by speculators betting against each other, it doesn't mean in there somewhere is legitimate inventory hedging going on.

الأحد، 26 مايو 2013

Trading Results 20-25.05.2103

Hello Traders!

Last two days of trading were the most profitable in whole week, mainly due to Japanese yet short trades. Thanks for that trades I was able to lift the weekly losses from -4.36% to  -0.35% now.
There was not much trading on major pairs like GBPUSD due to a lack of movement and setup. Trades on EURUSD lacked the precise timming so I need to keep them and wait for the trend to resume after correction.

The best trades this week were on GOOG: almost 3000 pips were made there, playing just 0,03 lots. No leverage yet.
The worst dissapointment is AUDJPY leveraged trade that I have been stalking for two weeks and on the final hour SL was hit before the movement to the downside resumed. Pity because the overall gain would be much more bigger on PAMM account.

Second dissapointment was NatGas trade.

The RECORD number of signals has been sent this week: 60 SIGNALS.

Nevertheless, here are the results from last week and if trend resumes this week on majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD) then it should be the most profitable week so far.

Trading Results:
Week from 20.05-24.05.2013                     +2564pips in scalp,(+2956onGOOG, -464onAAPL -$22onGold)



Grand Total since 20.12.2012             
 +8147pips!                                                            
+207 DAX Points                                                        
+22 SP500 points                                                         
+$99 Gold                                                         
+115 NatGas                                                       
+110 Nikkei                                                             
+5 Corn                                                             
+1 Soybeans
+2914 GOOGLE
+371 APPLE
Sizes:
Scalp trade is min:1 lot.
Swing Trade is min: 0,1lot.
Leverage is 600:1


Have a nice Sunday!

Regards,
Sebastian Seliga

ALL SIGNALS:
Weeks From 20.05.2013 - 24.05.2013:


Forex Signal No.311|Sell GOOG@886.04|SL:890.25|TP1:870.50|TP1:850.00|2013.05.23 17:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed +1108pips
Forex Signal No.310|Sell AAPL@443.75|SL:450.25|TP1:434.50|TP1:430.00|2013.05.23 17:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed -83pips
Forex Signal No.310|Sell CAD/JPY@98.04|SL:99.58|TP1:97.23|TP2:96.07|2013.05.24 13:00 CET|SwingSell|  Closed @ 97.79 +25pips
Forex Signal No.309|Sell AUD/JPY@98.07|SL:100.08|TP1:97.33|TP2:96.07|2013.05.24 13:00 CET|SwingSell|  Closed @ 97.81 + 29pips
Forex Signal No.308|Sell GBP/JPY@153.40|SL:155.15|TP1:151.10|TP2:147.00|2013.05.24 13:00 CET|SwingSell|Closed @152.63 +80pips
Forex Signal No.307|Sell USD/JPY@101.40|SL:102.65|TP:99.72|2013.05.24 12:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 101.08 +32pips
Forex Signal No.306a|Sell EUR/USD@1.2845|SL:1.3051|TP:1.2700|TP:2.1.2600|2013.05.23 07:30 CET|SwingSell|  IN PLAY
Forex Signal No.306a|Sell EUR/USD@1.2862|SL:1.3051|TP:1.2700|TP:2.1.2600|2013.05.23 07:30 CET|SwingSell|  IN PLAY
Forex Signal No.306a|Sell EUR/USD@1.2884|SL:1.3051|TP:1.2700|TP:2.1.2600|2013.05.23 07:30 CET|SwingSell|

Forex Signal No.306a|Sell EUR/USD@1.2953|SL:1.3051|TP:1.2700|TP:2.1.2600|2013.05.23 07:30 CET|SwingSell|  Closed @ 1.2920 +33pips
Forex Signal No.305a|Buy AAPL@448.21|SL:446|TP1:450.50|2013.05.22 17:30 CET|SwingBuy|SL HIT -223pips
Forex Signal No.305b|Buy AAPL@447.31|SL:446|TP1:450.50|2013.05.22 17:30 CET|SwingBuy|SL HIT -155pips
Forex Signal No.304a|Sell GOOG@900.85|SL:921.78|TP1:888.00|2013.05.22 17:30 CET|SwingSell|Closed @ 987.65 +1325pips
Forex Signal No.304b|Sell GOOG@893.55|SL:921.78|TP1:888.00|2013.05.22 17:30 CET|SwingSell|Closed @ 987.65 +481pips
Forex Signal No.303a|Sell NatGas@4.161|SL:4.231|TP1:3.890|TP2:3.75|02013.05.22 17:30 CET|SwingSell|  SL HIT -70pips
Forex Signal No.303b|Sell NatGas@4.185|SL:4.231|TP1:3.890|TP2:3.75|02013.05.22 17:30 CET|SwingSell|  SL HIT -45pips
Forex Signal No.303c|Sell NatGas@4.210|SL:4.231|TP1:3.890|TP2:3.75|02013.05.22 17:30 CET|SwingSell|  SL HIT -20pips
Forex Signal No.302a|Sell USD/CHF@0.9704|SL:0.9774|TP1:0.9588|2013.05.20 07:30 CET|SwingSell|Closed @ 0.9681 +25pips
Forex Signal No.302b|Sell USD/CHF@0.9665|SL:0.9774|TP1:0.9588|2013.05.20 07:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 0.9681-16pips
Forex Signal No.302a|Sell USD/CHF@0.9705|SL:0.9774|TP1:0.9588|2013.05.20 07:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 0.9681 +25pips
Forex Signal No.302a|Sell USD/CHF@0.9693|SL:0.9774|TP1:0.9588|2013.05.20 07:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 0.9681 +12pips
Forex Signal No.301a|Sell Gold@$1361|SL:$1367|TP1:$1321|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingSell|SL HIT +$9
Forex Signal No.301b|Sell Gold@$1356|SL:$1367|TP1:$1321|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingSell|SL HIT +$3
 Forex Signal No.300a|Sell AUD/JPY@100.42|SL:102.36|TP1:100.00|TP2:99.50|2013.05.14 12:45 CET|SwingSell|SCENARIO 1| Closed @ 100.78 -36pips
Forex Signal No.300b|Sell AUD/JPY@100.12|SL:102.36|TP1:100.00|TP2:99.50|2013.05.14 12:45 CET|SwingSell|SCENARIO 1Closed @ 100.68 -60pips
Forex Signal No.300c|Sell AUD/JPY@100.18|SL:102.36|TP1:100.00|TP2:99.50|2013.05.14 12:45 CET|SwingSell|SCENARIO 1| Closed @ 100.78 -60pips
Forex Signal No.300d|Sell AUD/JPY@100.29|SL:102.36|TP1:100.00|TP2:99.50|2013.05.14 12:45 CET|ScalpSell|SCENARIO 1| Closed @ 100.78 -50pips  biggest loose ever
Forex Signal No.299a|Sell NatGas@4.134|SL:4.4136|TP1:3.864|TP2:3.700|2013.05.20 19:00 CET|SwingSell| Closed +50pips
Forex Signal No.299b|Sell NatGas@4.116|SL:4.4136|TP1:3.864|TP2:3.700|2013.05.20 19:00 CET|SwingSell| Closed +32pips
Forex Signal No.299c|Sell NatGas@4.104|SL:4.4136|TP1:3.864|TP2:3.700|2013.05.20 19:00 CET|SwingSell| Closed +20pips
Forex Signal No.298a|Buy CAD/JPY@100|SL:99.30|TP1:102.10|2013.05.19 14:30 CET|SwingBuy|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.298b|Buy CAD/JPY@99.75|SL:99.30|TP1:102.10|2013.05.19 14:30CET|SwingBuy|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.297a|Sell NZD/USD@0.8150|SL:0.8185|TP1:0.7950|TP2:0.7750|2013.05.19 12:00 CET|SwingSell|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.297ab|Sell NZD/USD@0.8250|SL:0.8295|TP1:0.7950|TP2:0.7750|2013.05.19 12:00 CET|SwingSell|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.296a|Buy GBP/AUD@1.5350SL:1.5285|TP1:1.5520|TP2:1.5700|2013.05.19 12:00 CET|SwingSell|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.296b|Buy GBP/AUD@1.5300SL:1.5285|TP1:1.5520|TP2:1.5700|2013.05.19 12:00 CET|SwingSell|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.295|Sell GBP/AUD@1.5670SL:1.5685|TP1:1.5520|TP2:1.5350|2013.05.19 12:00 CET|SwingSell|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.294|Buy EUR/NZD @1.5811|SL:1.5759|TP1:1.600|TP2:1.6300|2013.05.19 11:00 CET|SwingBuy|SL HIT -52pips
Forex Signal No.293|Sell AUD/JPY@100.60|SL:101.01|TP1:99.60|TP2:99.00|2013.05.19 10:00 CET|SwingSell|SCENARIO 1|Closed @ 100.78 -18pips
Forex Signal No.292|Sell NatGas@4.090|SL:4.125|TP1:3.730|TP2:3.600|2013.05.18 20:40 CET|SwingBuy|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.291|Sell EUR/AUD @1.3200|SL:1.3235|TP1:1.3050|TP2:1.300|2013.05.18 17:00 CET|ScalpSell|Closed @ 1.3135 +65pips
Forex Signal No.290|Buy EUR/AUD @1.3000|SL:1.2979|TP1:1.3200|TP2:1.3300|2013.05.11 17:00 CET|SwingBuy|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.289a|Sell EUR/GBP@0.8470|SL:0.8516|TP1:0.8395|TP2:0.8280|2013.05.18 19:00 CET|SwingSell|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.289b|Sell EUR/GBP@0.8490|SL:0.8516|TP1:0.8395|TP2:0.8280|2013.05.18 19:00 CET|ScalpSell|INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.288|Sell EUR/JPY@132.95|SL:133.21|TP1:132.25|TP2:131.60|2013.05.12 13:00 CET|ScalpSell|SCENARIO 2
Forex Signal No.287|Sell USD/JPY@104.35|SL:104.55|TP1:103.10|TP2:102.800|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell
Forex Signal No.286|Buy USD/JPY@102.80|SL:102.50|TP1:104.35|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell|SL HIT -30pips
Forex Signal No.285a|Sell GBP/USD@1.5315|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell INVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.285b|Sell GBP/USD@1.5375|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSellINVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.285c|Sell GBP/USD@1.5260|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSellINVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.285d|Sell GBP/USD@1.5215|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSellINVALIDATED
Forex Signal No.285e|Sell GBP/USD@1.5235|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 1.5174 +60pips
Forex Signal No.285f|Sell GBP/USD@1.5223|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 1.5174 +50pips
Forex Signal No.285g|Sell GBP/USD@1.5235|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 1.5174 +60pips
Forex Signal No.285h|Sell GBP/USD@1.5212|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 1.5174 +37pips
Forex Signal No.285i|Sell GBP/USD@1.5196|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 1.5174 +22pips
Forex Signal No.285j|Sell GBP/USD@1.5185|SL:1.5460|TP1:1.5000|TP2:1.4850|2013.05.18 16:30 CET|SwingSell| Closed @ 1.5174 +11pips  
Forex Signal No.284|Sell DAX@8560|SL:8575|TP1:8350|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingSell|
Forex Signal No.283a|Sell Gold@$1387|SL:$1395|TP1:$1321|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingSell|SL HIT -$8
Forex Signal No.283b|Sell Gold@$1367|SL:$1395|TP1:$1321|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingSell|SL HIT -$28
Forex Signal No.282a|Sell EUR/USD@1.2850|SL:1.2901|TP1:1.2725|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingSell|SL HIT -50pips
Forex Signal No.282b|Sell EUR/USD@1.2850|SL:1.2901|TP1:1.2725|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingSell|SL HIT -50pips
Forex Signal No.281|Buy EUR/USD@1.2725|SL:1.2695|TP1:1.2800|TP2:1.2850|2013.05.18 07:30 CET|SwingBuy|INVALIDATED