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EUR/JPY & USD/CAD H1 Update
Thanks,
Seb
الاثنين، 8 يوليو 2013
الجمعة، 5 يوليو 2013
الخميس، 4 يوليو 2013
Gold is a pure Epsilon/Narrative asset
I came across this gem of a blog from a reader sending me Mauldin Economics' latest.
I think I could argue the case that gold is almost all Epsilon and little Alpha or Beta, because it is a Monetary asset, because of its massive stocks to flow ratio. As I said here "It is actually supply - the withholding of supply - that matters most." What those holders think matters, and that "think" is what the blogger calls a Narrative.
What we see going on in the goldbug internet is an attempt to construct a Narrative around gold. However, as the blogger says, it is not necessary for the Narrative to be true, "it is only important for a Narrative to sound truthful." Truth is not relevant because the point of the Narrative is to serve the interests of the powerful/those who are communicating it. How true - truth doesn't matter as long as it generates clicks and sells newsletters and coins.
It seems my, at times, crusade for truth in the blogosphere is in vain because what matters is "the more Common Knowledge in play at any given time, the more that market behaviors will be driven by the rules and logic of the Common Knowledge Game than by fundamentals or traditional factors."
Certainly I would have to concede that the current goldbug Narrative (a group of various memes) is all pervading in the gold blogosphere and I'm not really making a dent. There is a catch however. What the goldbugs don't realise is that their Narrative is not the Narrative that the rest of the world is using. Indeed in this post the blogger says that gold doesn't have a Narrative:
"In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day. To be an efficient gold investor in any period, I believe it’s crucial to identify and measure the relevant Narrative that is driving the Common Knowledge regarding gold. Only then can one construct an informational surface that predicts how the equilibrium price of gold will respond to new information ... There is no stand-alone Narrative regarding gold today, as there was in 1895. Today gold is understood from a Common Knowledge perspective only as a shadow or reflection of a powerful stand-alone Narrative regarding central banks, particularly the Fed … what I will call the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence. Like all effective Narratives it’s simple: central bank policy WILL determine market outcomes."
The result is that those who operate under the blogosphere Narrative will make the wrong decisions:
"You may privately believe that J.P. Morgan is still right, that gold has meaning as a store of value. But if you participate in the market on the basis of that belief, then you will buy and sell gold in an incredibly inefficient manner. You would be a smart gold investor in 1895, but a poor gold investor today."
This is a challenging statement for goldbugs - it doesn't matter if you think gold is a store of value, or if it should be one, what matters is what most people think gold is. I first came across this idea when reading The Social Construction of Reality (see this blog post of mine for background on this idea). When making investment decision what matters is what is, not what ought to be. I think most blogosphere Narratives are about the Ought, not the Is. That's fine, just don't buy and sell on that basis.
I think I could argue the case that gold is almost all Epsilon and little Alpha or Beta, because it is a Monetary asset, because of its massive stocks to flow ratio. As I said here "It is actually supply - the withholding of supply - that matters most." What those holders think matters, and that "think" is what the blogger calls a Narrative.
What we see going on in the goldbug internet is an attempt to construct a Narrative around gold. However, as the blogger says, it is not necessary for the Narrative to be true, "it is only important for a Narrative to sound truthful." Truth is not relevant because the point of the Narrative is to serve the interests of the powerful/those who are communicating it. How true - truth doesn't matter as long as it generates clicks and sells newsletters and coins.
It seems my, at times, crusade for truth in the blogosphere is in vain because what matters is "the more Common Knowledge in play at any given time, the more that market behaviors will be driven by the rules and logic of the Common Knowledge Game than by fundamentals or traditional factors."
Certainly I would have to concede that the current goldbug Narrative (a group of various memes) is all pervading in the gold blogosphere and I'm not really making a dent. There is a catch however. What the goldbugs don't realise is that their Narrative is not the Narrative that the rest of the world is using. Indeed in this post the blogger says that gold doesn't have a Narrative:
"In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day. To be an efficient gold investor in any period, I believe it’s crucial to identify and measure the relevant Narrative that is driving the Common Knowledge regarding gold. Only then can one construct an informational surface that predicts how the equilibrium price of gold will respond to new information ... There is no stand-alone Narrative regarding gold today, as there was in 1895. Today gold is understood from a Common Knowledge perspective only as a shadow or reflection of a powerful stand-alone Narrative regarding central banks, particularly the Fed … what I will call the Narrative of Central Banker Omnipotence. Like all effective Narratives it’s simple: central bank policy WILL determine market outcomes."
The result is that those who operate under the blogosphere Narrative will make the wrong decisions:
"You may privately believe that J.P. Morgan is still right, that gold has meaning as a store of value. But if you participate in the market on the basis of that belief, then you will buy and sell gold in an incredibly inefficient manner. You would be a smart gold investor in 1895, but a poor gold investor today."
This is a challenging statement for goldbugs - it doesn't matter if you think gold is a store of value, or if it should be one, what matters is what most people think gold is. I first came across this idea when reading The Social Construction of Reality (see this blog post of mine for background on this idea). When making investment decision what matters is what is, not what ought to be. I think most blogosphere Narratives are about the Ought, not the Is. That's fine, just don't buy and sell on that basis.
الأربعاء، 3 يوليو 2013
EUR/USD M10, M30, H1 & H4 Update
This is new feed for Volume Spread Analysys that have come from Infinity Futures Ltd and I hope it is a rather very good data provider.
General Outlook:
Anyway, there are two main scenatios for EURUSD now, and the difference is in placement of possible ent of wave (2) that is either finished OR latest leg down is a wave (b) of (a)(b)(c) Irregular Flat:
SCENARIO 1: Main on H4 TF - Impulsive bearish wave progression continues wirh wave (1) and (2) done already and the price is in the first staged of making wave (3)
SCENARIO 2: Alternate H1 TF - Wave (2) has not been finished yet and recent leg down is abc of wave (b) of larger cycle Irregular Flat Wave (2) correction. To confirm this outlook , price must go above 1.3000 level and then break the Weekly Pivot level as well.
Support/Resistance:
1.2984 - Swing Low
1.3041 - Weekly Pivot
1.3087 - 23%Fbo
1.3097 - WR1
1.3101 -1.3111 - 38%Fibo/Agressive Sell Area /Previous wave Four Area/WR1
1.3206 - WR2
1.3251 - 1.3265 - WR3/Key Resistance Area/ Clessic Sell Area
Trading Recommendation:
Buying is preffered only if channel is broken and previous wave 4 area with round nuber 1.3000 is broken and tested as well. Otherwise go with the flow and sell this area.
Seb
General Outlook:
Anyway, there are two main scenatios for EURUSD now, and the difference is in placement of possible ent of wave (2) that is either finished OR latest leg down is a wave (b) of (a)(b)(c) Irregular Flat:
SCENARIO 1: Main on H4 TF - Impulsive bearish wave progression continues wirh wave (1) and (2) done already and the price is in the first staged of making wave (3)
SCENARIO 2: Alternate H1 TF - Wave (2) has not been finished yet and recent leg down is abc of wave (b) of larger cycle Irregular Flat Wave (2) correction. To confirm this outlook , price must go above 1.3000 level and then break the Weekly Pivot level as well.
Support/Resistance:
1.2984 - Swing Low
1.3041 - Weekly Pivot
1.3087 - 23%Fbo
1.3097 - WR1
1.3101 -1.3111 - 38%Fibo/Agressive Sell Area /Previous wave Four Area/WR1
1.3206 - WR2
1.3251 - 1.3265 - WR3/Key Resistance Area/ Clessic Sell Area
Trading Recommendation:
Buying is preffered only if channel is broken and previous wave 4 area with round nuber 1.3000 is broken and tested as well. Otherwise go with the flow and sell this area.
Seb
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الثلاثاء، 2 يوليو 2013
الاثنين، 1 يوليو 2013
الأحد، 30 يونيو 2013
EUR/USD M30 Update
General Overview:
Five waves to the downside with expanded wave (iii) seems to be done and market is up to correction.
First wave of corrective wave (2) looks complex and it is a first clue that the rest part of wave (2) might get complex in time and price as well.
Recent wave { a OR i } to the downside is in five waves and this might indicate even that the correction is over and market will be heading sharply lower in impulsive fashion. Nevertheless, please be aware that this might be just a ZigZag wave b as a part of Irregular Flat correction wave (2).
Support/Resistance:
1.2984 - Swing Low
1.3089 - 23%Fbo
1.3152 - 38%Fibo/First possible Distributio Area/Previous wave Four Area
Trading Recommentadion:
If next wave to the downside will be in five waves and if it will NOT break 1.2950 level than one can try to go long to try to catch wave (c) to the upside. TP is the 1.3152 as a possible distribution area.
Seb
Five waves to the downside with expanded wave (iii) seems to be done and market is up to correction.
First wave of corrective wave (2) looks complex and it is a first clue that the rest part of wave (2) might get complex in time and price as well.
Recent wave { a OR i } to the downside is in five waves and this might indicate even that the correction is over and market will be heading sharply lower in impulsive fashion. Nevertheless, please be aware that this might be just a ZigZag wave b as a part of Irregular Flat correction wave (2).
Support/Resistance:
1.2984 - Swing Low
1.3089 - 23%Fbo
1.3152 - 38%Fibo/First possible Distributio Area/Previous wave Four Area
Trading Recommentadion:
If next wave to the downside will be in five waves and if it will NOT break 1.2950 level than one can try to go long to try to catch wave (c) to the upside. TP is the 1.3152 as a possible distribution area.
Seb
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السبت، 29 يونيو 2013
الجمعة، 28 يونيو 2013
الأربعاء، 26 يونيو 2013
الثلاثاء، 25 يونيو 2013
EUR/USD M30 25.06.2013 Trade Ariel
EUR/USD
BUY
1 position: 1.3095
2 position: 1.3088
SL 1.3079
Risk: 26 pips
CLOSE: 1.3107
PROFIT:+30 PIPS
BUY
1 position: 1.3095
2 position: 1.3088
SL 1.3079
Risk: 26 pips
CLOSE: 1.3107
PROFIT:
الاثنين، 24 يونيو 2013
EUR/JPY H1 Update
General Overview:
Previous Update is here:
http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2013/06/eurjpy-h4-update.html
Price is in a complex and time consuming corrective wave X and last 7 swing to the upside make it some sort of complex corrective pattern. That means more correction to the upside is anticiapted - no clear outlook right now.
Support/Resistance:
131.26 - Swing high
129.92 - 78%Fibo
126.92 - Weekly pivot
124.94 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Stay away until clear pattern emerge.
Seb
Previous Update is here:
http://elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com/2013/06/eurjpy-h4-update.html
Price is in a complex and time consuming corrective wave X and last 7 swing to the upside make it some sort of complex corrective pattern. That means more correction to the upside is anticiapted - no clear outlook right now.
Support/Resistance:
131.26 - Swing high
129.92 - 78%Fibo
126.92 - Weekly pivot
124.94 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Stay away until clear pattern emerge.
Seb
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EUR/USD H1 Update
General Overview:
Wave 1 should be finished now in five impulsive waves so sellig the rallys is the way to go now. First sell entry is for agressive traders, more classic one is on the previous wave four area of a lesser degree @ 1.3250 - 1.3290 area - this area merges with some important Fibo retracements.
If You like to ride a waves, You can buy the lows of wave 1 as well with stop loss below the low and take profit levels into sell areas.
Please notice that the alternate count indicates a possibility of WXY Irregular Flat Wave 4 correction as well so any impulsive development above 78.6%Fibo would put the count into question.
Support/Resistance:
1.3416 - Swing High
1.3343 - 78.6% Fibo
1.3250 - 1.3290 Classic Sell Entry Area
1.3175 - Agressive Sell Entry Area (tigh SL)
1.3098 - Swing Low
1.3000 - Alternate count invalidation line/Top confirmation
Trading Recommendation:
Sell the Agressive (tight SL) or Classical Sell Entry Area with SL above the Swing High in anticipation of larger cycle decline.
SIGNALS:
Forex Signal No.330a|Sell EUR/USD@1.3175|SL:1.3190|TP1:1.3100|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|ScalpSell|
Forex Signal No.330b|Sell EUR/USD@1.3250|SL:1.3420|TP1:1.2950|TP2:1.2750|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Forex Signal No.330c|Sell EUR/USD@1.3290|SL:1.3420|TP1:1.2950|TP2:1.2750|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Seb
Wave 1 should be finished now in five impulsive waves so sellig the rallys is the way to go now. First sell entry is for agressive traders, more classic one is on the previous wave four area of a lesser degree @ 1.3250 - 1.3290 area - this area merges with some important Fibo retracements.
If You like to ride a waves, You can buy the lows of wave 1 as well with stop loss below the low and take profit levels into sell areas.
Please notice that the alternate count indicates a possibility of WXY Irregular Flat Wave 4 correction as well so any impulsive development above 78.6%Fibo would put the count into question.
Support/Resistance:
1.3416 - Swing High
1.3343 - 78.6% Fibo
1.3250 - 1.3290 Classic Sell Entry Area
1.3175 - Agressive Sell Entry Area (tigh SL)
1.3098 - Swing Low
1.3000 - Alternate count invalidation line/Top confirmation
Trading Recommendation:
Sell the Agressive (tight SL) or Classical Sell Entry Area with SL above the Swing High in anticipation of larger cycle decline.
SIGNALS:
Forex Signal No.330a|Sell EUR/USD@1.3175|SL:1.3190|TP1:1.3100|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|ScalpSell|
Forex Signal No.330b|Sell EUR/USD@1.3250|SL:1.3420|TP1:1.2950|TP2:1.2750|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Forex Signal No.330c|Sell EUR/USD@1.3290|SL:1.3420|TP1:1.2950|TP2:1.2750|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Seb
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USD/CHF H4 Update
General Overview:
There is still one more wave to the downside missing so all the upside rallys should be considered as corrective and the main objective now is to find the end of wave 4 and sell it.
I have two scenarios here:
SCENARIO 1: wave 4 will end on previous wave four area of a higher degree ( (iv) ) somewhere in the area of 0.9400 - 0.9417
SCENARIO 2: wave 4 will end higher into 50% Fibo somewhere in the area of 0.9483 - 0.9515.
Please notice that there is a possibility, that this wave 4 might be in shape of a TRIANGLE as well!
Support/Resistance:
0.9834 - Swing High
0.9590 - blue impulsive count invalidation line
0.9567 - 61%Fibo
0.9517 - 0.9483 SUPPLY ZONE OF WAVE 4
0.9400 - 0.9417 - SUPPLY ZONE OF WAVE 4
0.9132 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Sell the wave rallys inot the SUPPLY AREAS of 0.9400 - 0.9417 OR 0.9517 - 0.9483
SIGNALS:
Forex Signal No.336a|Sell USD/CHF@0.9417|SL:0.9437|TP1:0.9250|TP2:0.9137|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Forex Signal No.336b|Sell USD/CHF@0.9515|SL:0.9537|TP1:0.9250|TP2:0.9137|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Seb
There is still one more wave to the downside missing so all the upside rallys should be considered as corrective and the main objective now is to find the end of wave 4 and sell it.
I have two scenarios here:
SCENARIO 1: wave 4 will end on previous wave four area of a higher degree ( (iv) ) somewhere in the area of 0.9400 - 0.9417
SCENARIO 2: wave 4 will end higher into 50% Fibo somewhere in the area of 0.9483 - 0.9515.
Please notice that there is a possibility, that this wave 4 might be in shape of a TRIANGLE as well!
Support/Resistance:
0.9834 - Swing High
0.9590 - blue impulsive count invalidation line
0.9567 - 61%Fibo
0.9517 - 0.9483 SUPPLY ZONE OF WAVE 4
0.9400 - 0.9417 - SUPPLY ZONE OF WAVE 4
0.9132 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Sell the wave rallys inot the SUPPLY AREAS of 0.9400 - 0.9417 OR 0.9517 - 0.9483
SIGNALS:
Forex Signal No.336a|Sell USD/CHF@0.9417|SL:0.9437|TP1:0.9250|TP2:0.9137|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Forex Signal No.336b|Sell USD/CHF@0.9515|SL:0.9537|TP1:0.9250|TP2:0.9137|2013.06.22 11:30 CET|SwingSell|
Seb
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CHF/PLN Weekly Update
General Overview:
Recent price development urged to change to count due to no impulsive price rection after previous wave 4 low. The new count indicates, that wave 4 is a classical traiangle pattern anr recent range breakout is first wave (i) to the upside that on Daily chart has been finished and now a correction is due. When corrective wave (ii) will be done, powerfull wave (iii) is just about the corner.
The Key Level is 55 period moving average - the last time price went to this level it was heavily bought.
If Extended Triangle pattern line will be broken, then this would be first clue that low is in.
Support/Resistance:
3.700 - Swing High
3.5500 - Extended Triangle pattern trend line
3.4750 - 100 WMA
3.4150 - 55 WMA
3.3000 - Wave one low/Bullish count invalidation level
3.2650 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Buy the dips with SL below 3.300 and POTENTIAL target of 4.100 easy.
Seb
Recent price development urged to change to count due to no impulsive price rection after previous wave 4 low. The new count indicates, that wave 4 is a classical traiangle pattern anr recent range breakout is first wave (i) to the upside that on Daily chart has been finished and now a correction is due. When corrective wave (ii) will be done, powerfull wave (iii) is just about the corner.
The Key Level is 55 period moving average - the last time price went to this level it was heavily bought.
If Extended Triangle pattern line will be broken, then this would be first clue that low is in.
Support/Resistance:
3.700 - Swing High
3.5500 - Extended Triangle pattern trend line
3.4750 - 100 WMA
3.4150 - 55 WMA
3.3000 - Wave one low/Bullish count invalidation level
3.2650 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Buy the dips with SL below 3.300 and POTENTIAL target of 4.100 easy.
Seb
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NZD/USD H4 Update
General Overview:
The bullish divergence on Daily chart suggest the wave 3 has ended @ 0.7695 OR there is one small degree wave missing before the corrective bounce in wave 4 will occur.
The Key Level for further upside is at Key Zone: any breakout would mean more complex and time consuming correction.
Support/Resistance:
0.8135 - Swing High
0.8000 - 0.8050 - Key Zone
0.7915 - descending trend line resistance
0.7695 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Easy money has been done here so patience is required. More agressive traders can go long after the low of wave 5 is confirmed with the first target on 0.8000 zone.
Seb
The bullish divergence on Daily chart suggest the wave 3 has ended @ 0.7695 OR there is one small degree wave missing before the corrective bounce in wave 4 will occur.
The Key Level for further upside is at Key Zone: any breakout would mean more complex and time consuming correction.
Support/Resistance:
0.8135 - Swing High
0.8000 - 0.8050 - Key Zone
0.7915 - descending trend line resistance
0.7695 - Swing Low
Trading Recommendation:
Easy money has been done here so patience is required. More agressive traders can go long after the low of wave 5 is confirmed with the first target on 0.8000 zone.
Seb
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