LISTEN TO THE WISDOM OF THE CANDLES

Your candles always have a tale to tell and you would be very wise to listen as they whisper hints about what is going on in the market. In order to trade your very best, it is very very important for you to learn to properly interpret the language of your chart. Now you can use either the bar or candlestick chart to do this, there is really no real difference in the information between the two, but the candles give you a clear immediate visual advantage over your bars. Whether you use bars or candles isn't as important as being able to understand what they are saying to you.

Learning to properly interpret this language will save you hundreds to several thousands of dollars. The trader who has taken the time and patience to learn this language heaps huge rewards as a benefit, but those who don't suffer the wrath of the market time and time again.

Now it is possible to have a perfect understanding of the market and still miss it. All the proper interpretation does is give you an advantage that will put profits in your pocket most of the time.

Your charts are always telling a story and if you can properly interpret that story the market will pay you big dividends for that knowledge.

Here is one of my favorite beginner candlestick video:



Also pick up Steve Nison's candlestick book at your local library: THE KNOWLEDGE IS THE POWER IN TRADING, and having it is the difference between going broke and thriving.

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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King World News & Scotia Certificates

*Updated table on 14 Feb 2012 with 2011 figures*

In this interview, Lenny Organ (son of Harvey Organ who was at CFTC hearing) recounts how at a recent visit to the vaults of ScotiaBank they saw little physical precious metals and had to go to some trouble to get physical.

I analysed Scotia's annual report back in September 2009 after seeing a blog by ispeakofpeak on the issue. At that time the annual report revealed that Scotia only had 43% of its gold and silver certificate liabilities backed by physical metal. The table below updates that post with the most recent report (note: Scotia's financial year end is 31 Oct, figures in millions of dollars).

Year
Ending Liabilities Assets Physical cover
Oct 11 3,931 9,249 100%
Oct 10 5,153 6,497 100%
Oct 09 3,856 5,580 100%
Oct 08 5,619 2,426 43%
Oct 07 5,986 4,046 68%
Oct 06 3,434 3,362 98%
Oct 05 2,711 2,822 100%
Oct 04 2,018 2,302 100%

It appears that the physical backing was running down from 2006 but is now back to 100%+, with $5.58 billion of physical. This contrasts with Lenny Organ statement. Either Scotia have run down a lot of physical in 6 months or it is stored elsewhere.

I do find it interesting that the gold and silver certificate liability has declined from $5.619b to $3.856b in the past year, a year when most ETFs, GoldMoney and BullionVault and Perth Mint have shown increasing amounts of metal held.

I agree with Adrian Douglas' statement in the interview that many storage providers "are very vague about what is backing their paper certificates and if they are vague I think you should not give them the benefit of the doubt". Contrast this statement from Scotia about their unallocated:

"Scotiabank gold certificates are backed by the assets of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Unallocated gold is a claim on The Bank of Nova Scotia for the ounces entitlement to a specific quantity of gold bullion."

with the Perth Mint's:

"With unallocated storage, also known as a metal account, clients purchase an interest in a pool of precious metal held by The Perth Mint. The Mint purchases an ounce of precious metal from the spot market for every unallocated ounce it sells to clients. Accordingly every unallocated ounce is 100% backed. ... The Perth Mint is not a bullion bank and does not provide project financing or bullion lending/derivative services to mining companies or other entities. It does not lend client's unallocated metal to support short selling transactions or other derivative activities. The unallocated metal is utilised solely to fund the Mint's operations."

You should always read the fine print.

The Mysterious Mr Maguire's Message of Metal Manipulation

"Since criminal prosecution is only a remote threat, and since the fines and damages are generally paid by the companies, not by the individuals, the question is: what’s to keep a Sumitomo from happening again, perhaps in precious metals?" - Modern Market Manipulation by Mike Riess, International Precious Metals Institute 27th Annual Conference, 16 June 2003.

The recent statements by Mr Maguire may well prove Mr Riess right. It is well worth reading Mr Riess' presentation. It is not long and neatly identifies the factors that contributed to the copper manipulation, factors that also apply to the metals markets.

For the young'uns, "a Sumitomo" refers to the case where, as the CFTC itself found: "the principal copper trader for Sumitomo engaged in a scheme, in conjunction with an entity operating in the United States, with the intent of manipulating the price of copper. In particular, during 1995 and 1996, Sumitomo, acting through its agent or agents, established and maintained large and dominating futures positions in copper metal on the London Metals Exchange ("LME"). In the fall of 1995, Sumitomo stood for delivery on a significant percentage of its maturing futures contracts. It thereby acquired a dominant and controlling cash and futures market position, which directly and predictably caused copper prices, including prices on the United States cash and futures markets, to reach artificially high levels. ... Sumitomo intentionally exploited these artificially high prices in order to profit on the liquidation of its large portfolio of futures contracts and holdings of LME warrants."

It is because of the Sumitomo case that I am not surprised by the revelations of Mr Maguire. However, the question for me is what sort of manipulation are we talking about? It is being spun as proof of GATA's claim that the gold market is manipulated by the US Government via bullion banks in an attempt to support the dollar. While I don't begrudge GATA some PR mileage, at this time all that Mr Maguire has is potentially another "rouge trader" case, only affecting the silver markets. He is not providing any evidence about gold market manipulations or Governmental involvement.

This may come in due time if the CFTC investigate further but that does beg the question of why rely on the Government. If they are ultimately party to the manipulation, will they not make the issue go away in a backroom deal? Alternatively, if the CFTC presses on and does find something initially in the silver markets, will it just be explained away as a rogue trader who will take the fall?

In this case it may be best to fight fire with fire, in a way. GATA would achieve more, and quicker, by doing a roadshow with Mr Maguire to hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc and making its case that the market has been manipulated via the surreptitious leasing and selling of central bank gold that is now all used up and hence there is a large short position that can be squeezed. The standard of proof would be much lower, just enough to convince an investor that the odds are in their favour.

Would it not be better to use brawn rather than bureaucracy? Only if you're sure the bet your pitching won't turn bad, because then your buddies will be blue (to put it mildly).

100:1

DUMP THAT LOSER

One of the biggest mistakes that traders make is holding on to losers too long. The reason we do this is because we can't stand to lose that money. We can't stand to see our bottom line shrink. We can't take the fact that we were wrong in the trade set up. We don't want to mess up a good winning streak. We got stopped out too many times, only to soon see price reverse in our favor. We got angry because we got tricked and now refuse to budge, but keeping the loss only hurts us, while another trader is getting our money. We got tricked it happens, it is time to cut our losses and move on to another better trade set-up.

Whatever the reason, holding on to losing trades IS A BAD IDEA, that only cripples you.

There are other ways you lose besides losing your money??????

By refusing to take a legitimate loss, (not when price moves against you a few pips in a well established trend, but holding for days, weeks and months), you rob yourself of many more profits. When you lock yourself in a losing trade, you can't take any profitable trades in that pair. Say you are short on the USD/JPY and the pair moves against you, now you have practiced good money management so you can afford to hold on to it until in comes back in your favor, it has now been 6 months. With FIFO (first in, first out) that is 6 months that you could not make money on that pair because you were nursing a loss. If you traded on the pair twice a day that is 318 trades(taking out Saturday) that you have cheated yourself out of over six month, and even if you got just 5 pips per trader, that is 1590 pips that you have missed, but say that you couldn't get every trade, you only got half that is 795 pips that you have missed...........ok, but even that is a struggle, so let's say a third, that is 265 pips, that you have cheated yourself out of, and if you are really a great trader, you know that you have missed so much more, say you were able to average ten pips per trade over the 6 months, then that is 3,180 pips that you have kept yourself from. Let's translate pips into dollars that is $265.00, enough for a nice Christmas present. $790.00, enough for that nice gadget that will impress your Friends. $1590.00 enough for that great TV you want. $3,180.00 enough for a great down payment on your teenagers first car.

You could have traded that multiple times both long and short, instead you threw it all away because you refused to take that loss.

Then the loss gets too big and you feel like you can't take it, because you can't afford to take it now. If you cut the legs off of that monster while it is manageable, it won't grow up to eat you.

Not cutting a loss, increased your stress level, making you harder to live with. Makes you feel sorry for yourself, 'because GOD will help everybody else but you'. You are too worried to sleep, so you stay up and watch the market. You also limit the amount of money you can trade with, because a portion of it is locked in that losing trade, resulting in smaller profits.

You are going bald, your blood pressure is up and you are stressed to hell. Just cut the loss while it is manageable. I know you don't want to give the market your money, but that is part of the price of playing the game. Don't trap yourself into a corner that you can't make money in, it is sooooooooooo much worst than giving the market a few dollars, because you are still able to trade and make more money. What if it takes a whole week to recover, it is still better than that panicky feeling that comes from watching the market go against you day after day after day and feeling helpless to do anything about it.

The right way is to ride the winners and DUMP THE LOSERS, because they cripple you, they pull you down emotionally, they steal your trading confidence and lastly they drain your account as they get greedier and greedier the larger they become.

IS IT WORTH IT??????????!!!!!!!!

DON'T LET YOUR LOSERS RUN WILD, Because many times they will run until they drain you dry.


YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)



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Sprott attempts gold buy (VIDEO)

The Whistleblower

Defending a Virtual Currency

The Price Yo-Yo

What is the Price Yo-Yo???????

It is the price dance that keeps traders confused and keeps them off guard. Every hour, every day, every week and every month you have a natural price movement like the flow of musical notes. It flows up and it flows down sometimes like smooth rolling hills and sometimes like sharp cliffs and canyons.

The Price Yo-Yo is one of the hardest things for traders to get use to, as is seems so random and without any logic. When you are sitting at your computer all day watching price move up, down and sideways it is easy to get confused about the true direction of the market. That is why it is always best to get a view of the bigger picture before you begin trading in smaller time frames.

By looking at the bigger picture you can plan a strategy that will help you to keep sight of your trading objective and give you an advantage that you would not have if you just jumped in on a smaller time frame and started to trade without that bigger time frame reference.



If you see that your market is mostly bullish on a four hour chart, then it may be wise for you to take trades in the bullish direction on the 15min time frame. If you have a predictable range bound market, then you want to look for opportunities to sell near resistance and buy near support on your 15 min time frame. Remember you only want to buy/sell at these point with proper candlestick reversal pattern at/near an established support/resistance. Waiting for proper entry/exit signals will put you on the right side of the trade most of the time (^_^)

Keeping an eye on the bigger time frame picture, will give you an advantage and help keep you from getting confused and losing your way while trading in smaller time frames. If you have been trading any time, you know that you can use every advantage you can get (^_^).

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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US Mints ‘Gold Disks’ for Oil Payments to Saudi Arabia

Synthesis

Open Forum

PRICE ACTION AND FRIENDS

Why do so many traders go broke???????

The house advantage!!!!

What is the house advantage???????



The house has all of the money and knows and makes the rules. The thing about the rules is that they seem random as if they are being made up as we are going along. That is why the proper interpretation of the language of the charts is so essential to your trading success. Your indicators and oscillators are only following where the price lead. How much better is it to be able to interpret what is going on in the market long before your indicator does? It can be done and is done skillfully everyday by people who understand and know the language the charts speak. What is this secret, strange, mysterious, language that the charts speak???



PRICE ACTION!!!!!!!! What price is doing and has done, along with the natural rhythm of the market.



By the time your indicators tell you what your price is doing, you are already behind those who interpreted price action long before your indicator/oscillator clued you in. Have you ever waited for your indicator/oscillator to tell you to get in only to discover that you have missed a great deal of the move already. Becoming fluent in the language of price will help you to avoid much of that.



THERE IS NO PERFECT FOREX SYSTEM, it doesn't exist, but studying and learning the language of your charts will put the odds in your favor, and help you to glean a sweet little profit in the process.







There are no short cuts here. You can learn the language and get an advantage, or you can rely on the news, support/resistance, trend lines or other indicators/oscillators. I am a huge fan of support/resistance and trend lines, but gaining an understanding of price action will give you a clear advantage.



I am not bashing indicators, but you need to understand what they are. They are merely assistants and interns to the PRESIDENT OF PRICE ACTION.



Is PRICE ACTION ENOUGH??????



NO!!!!!!!



Like the president, your Price action needs a cabinet that can support it. That is where your indicators and oscillators come on. They are your support staff. Once you master PRICE ACTION, the other things become natural assistants.



Price action will not tell you everything, it will not tell you how far price is headed, and how long the destination might be. That is where support/resistance, and long term trend line comes in.



At the end of the month, always see where your price is headed, then plan your strategy accordingly, knowing that most of the time you will have a bounce on your weekly candle. DO NOT SHORT OFF OF THE LOW OF THAT LAST MONTHLY CANDLE, BECAUSE MOST OF THE TIME, YOU WILL END UP ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE TRADE.



THAT IS WHY LEARNING YOUR MARKET RHYTHM IS SO IMPORTANT!!!



PRICE ACTION ALONG WITH FRIENDS CAN TAKE YOU WHERE YOU WANT TO BE.



You may use any indicator/oscillator that your are comfortable with. Just remember that they are the cabinet to the PRESIDENT OF PRICE ACTION!!!!!!!!!!!



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YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

"The Gold Man" (not Goldman) at the BIS

THE GUESSING OF TRADING

Trading is based on our hypothesis. In other words trading amounts to our educated guesses, which means the more you invest in your education, the more likely you are to find yourself on the right side of the trade. One of the most widely overlooked parts of trading education by traders is the study of past charts. I make personal videos, so that like a football team I can review my plays and create better strategies.

Your chart will tell you almost every thing you need to know to get on the right side of the trade. The one thing it doesn't tell you is what is going on behind the scenes and it will even give you a hint to that most of the time. Your bullish/bearish ENGULFING patterns are evidence that there are some secrets that the market keeps to itself.

Mastering your candlestick psychology, your support/resistance, and your trendlines are things that you want to major on and learn well. You may not win every trade, but having a firm foundation on these simple techniques can greatly increase your odds of a successful trade. I think the more simple your charts, the better and easier it is for you to enter a good trade.

Sometimes you will have the perfect trade set up and all of your analysis will be right and you will find yourself on the wrong side of the trade. No big deal, it happens to all of us, review that trade and see if you can identify the error. When you have reviewed it, look for the next trading opportunity. There is NO PERFECT TRADING STRATEGY!!!!!!! This is only a guessing game for those of us who like to play the odds. The better your education, the better your odds will be against the house.

YOU CAN ABSOLUTELY DO THIS (^_^)

YOU CAN BE SUCCESSFUL AT FOREX!!!!!

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STRATEGY VIDEOS IN ONE PLACE

My Friends, I am always honored to have you along. I am going to post some strategic videos here that you can book mark so that you can review them from time to time. Keep in mind that every market day is different. Your candlesticks are always telling a story. Look at the past story of the candles to help accurately interpret what your candles are telling you right now.

ALWAYS WAIT FOR PROPER TRADE SET-UPS. Great trading is mostly waiting to meet with great profit opportunity. No truly great trader is in the market all of the time. A truly great trader waits to pounce when she/he sees profit ripe on the horizon. However, I know some scalpers that make more than 200pips a day, but they wait for proper trade set-ups.

You have to choose the trading style that fits your personality, as there are many ways to successfully trade forex and no one has the monopoly on great trading. We have just found what works for us successfully. When you find good stuff, learn what you can, then tweak it to make it your own. Forex is a consistent building of knowledge.

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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Fake Tungsten Gold Story

The gold bars filled with tungsten story is getting another run - see Zero Hedge and RunToGold.

Nick from ShareLynx Gold passed on to me today the following from the producers of the video (all personal info was removed by him before forwarding):

vielen Dank für Ihre Anfrage.
MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ENQUIRY

Das Video ist tatsächlich bei Argor in der Schweiz aufgenommen worden, allerdings in einem ganz anderen Zusammenhang.

THE VIDEO WAS EFFECTIVELY TAKEN AT ARGOR IN SWITZERLAND, ALTHOUGH IN A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CONTEXT

Unten eine englischsprachige Erklärung hierzu, die Ihnen einige weitere Hintergrundinformationen gibt. Der Barren wurde übrigens schon vor über 10 Jahren bei Argor zum Einschmelzen abgegeben; sofort entdeckt und aus dem Verkehr gezogen. Gefälschte Barren kommen extrem selten vor, unsere Kollegen in den Schmelzen können sich an keinen Fall in den letzten Jahren erinnern, in denen ein solcher bei Heraeus zur Aufarbeitung eingeliefert wurde.

BELOW AN EXPLANATION IN ENGLISH TO THIS ISSUE, THAT WILL GIVE YOU SOME FURTHER BACKGROUND INFORMATION. THE BARS, BY THE WAY, WERE DELIVERED TO ARGOR ALREADY MORE THAN TEN YEARS AGO FOR SMELTING; WERE IMMEDIATELY DISCOVERED AND WITHDRAWN FROM CIRCULATION. COUNTERFEIT BARS ARE EXTREMELY RARE, OUR COLLEAGUES FROM THE FOUNDRY CANNOT RECALL A SINGLE INSTANCE IN THE LAST YEARS IN WHICH SUCH A BAR WAS DELIVERED TO HERAEUS FOR PROCESSING.

Statement:

The video shown on www.youtube.com is an extract from the weekly German television broadcast Galileo that discusses scientific topics. This particular broadcast covered the topic of gold including testing the purity of gold bars.

The presentation of the scene of (gold) production at the Argor Heraeus refinery – that was put on youtube.com in another context – when seen together with the text could therefore give an incorrect impression.

The false bar shown in the broadcast was a bar not produced by Heraeus; it was sent to the company for refining and detected already at the time of delivery. Compliance Management at Argor-Heraeus is very important and plays an important role at the company. Among others, it has very stringent rules for handling and dealing with precious metals.

Therefore, and combined also with strong and effective quality controls, Argor-Heraeus is able to assure the authenticity of gold bars produced by the company itself at all times.

Internet: www.heraeus-edelmetallhandel.de
Heraeus Metallhandelsgesellschaft mbH
Heraeusstr. 12-14, 63450 Hanau, Germany

So the video is about ten year old fake bars. Another example of commentators jumping the gun and hyping a story without any fact/background checking. To be fair, it really is only someone like Nick who has a worldwide well-connected subscriber base who can do that sort of checking.

I also find it interesting that the video Zero Hedge linked is the only upload of YouTube user wolframgold who only joined on 28 Feb 2010. This leads me to a conspiracy I am surprised none of the more rabid commentators have come up with yet, namely that the source of the tungsten rumours since October 2009 is either a refinery/mint trying to scare people away from the secondary market and ebay and into only buying new bars and coins OR producers of testing equipment!

Nick also passed on to me a link to BullionAnalysis.com, which has some nice pictures of fake Englehard silver bars that their equipment would have detected. This does undercut RunToGold's conclusion from the tungsten scare that "if one is concerned about the quality of their gold then the other precious metals like silver and platinum are good alternatives". Ouch.

I would also disagree with RunToGold's statement that "detecting a high-quality fake tungsten gold bar would be extremely difficult. It would likely require significant and material alterations to the bar being tested and this would negatively affect the marketability if its hallmark veracity were vindicated."

Ultrasonic testers will do the job without having to damage a bar. I quote some techo stuff from KK&S Instruments:

The 1090 Flaw Detector allows you to look into the Bar for voids/defects as well as UT velocity which is determined the products elastic modulus i.e Tungsten Velocity is 5183-5460m/sec and Gold is 3,240m/sec. For example if you calibrate for Au then the testing Tungsten bar of the same thickness, the UT thickness would read approximately half the actual because of the speeding-up of the sound through the Tungsten.

Problem is that it does require some technical knowledge to use the machine, so out of reach of retail investors and small coin dealers. It is probably prohibitively expensive as well.

I also think that it is fairly likely that the unintended consequence of commentators pushing the tungsten story is to drive mom & pop newbie gold investors into the ETFs. Making the decision to buying gold is a big change for the average investor and you can be sure they are seeking reassurance. Sow doubts in their mind about the "dangers" of physical gold and you will push them into ETFs, because mom & pop see them as regulated and thus safe. The very opposite of what many (if not all) commentators would want. I doubt they think about these consequences when they are looking for their next headline.

Of Currency Wars

Open Forum

YOUR MARKET OPPONENT

Most traders are under the illusion that their greatest opponent in the market are the skilled pros out there who are waiting to gobble them up. While they are worthy opponents, there is an opponent even more worthy, if you go to the mirror, you will find them. The biggest enemy to trading successfully is YOU and your mindset.



The thing that usually demolishes traders besides getting into the game way too early (while they are still very, very green) is their lack of discipline and patience. The hardest thing in the market, especially if you are a natural Type A personality, is the waiting.



The natural type A makes the perfect forex victim, because we like to see things move and like to get things accomplished. While this is a very desirable trait in most other aspects of life, it can be to your determent in forex.







It is the incredible volatility and fast pace of forex that attracts us in the first place, but when the market is stagnant, it can make us nuts, often causing us to make premature ill-timed entries.



That is why it is essential to your long term success for you to perfect your WAIT!!!!!



What are you waiting???

For proper trade set-ups!



Trades in harmony with your trend will usually be the most profitable and give the most reliable signals.



LEARN YOUR CANDLESTICK PATTERNS!

LEARN YOUR TRENDS!!!

LEARN YOUR SUPPORT/RESISTANCE!!!!!

LEARN ABOUT MARKET RHYTHM!!!

LEARN MARKET PSYCHOLOGY!!!!!



AFTER LEARNING ALL OF THAT.



YOU MUST PERFECT THE ART OF WAITING !!!!!!!! (^_^)





YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)





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QUESTIONS AFTER THE HIT

When you take a hit, you have got to think your way through it logically.

Questions to ask yourself when you have taken a hit.

What is the lesson here???

What did I learn????

How can I avoid this next time????

What is my strategy the next time I encounter this situation????

Did I remember to pat myself on the back for the good trades this month?????

Did I remind myself that I have had many more successes this month??????

Did I remind myself that this is just an opportunity to do it better next time?????

Did I use proper discipline????????

Did I wait for a proper trade set-up??????

Did I follow my trading rules????????

How long am I going to wallow here???????

Did I remind myself that the market is very generous and will always give me plenty of opportunities for profit???????

Do I have more money now than I did at the beginning of the month????

If YES, you are ok.
You are out to win the war, though you may lose a few battles.
If you have gained 90 dollars for the month and you lose $8,
then you are ahead of the game by $82.

If the answer is NO and you are consistently taking hits,
then STOP and RETHINK your strategy, There is something WRONG!


No one can tell you how to trade; all they can do is share their experience and you will have to tweak it to fit your trading style. Thinking through your losses logically will give you the best advantage over reacting emotionally .

NEVER EVER USE A LOSS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BEAT YOURSELF UP. IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN AND INCREASE YOUR KNOWLEDGE

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)


Double Tops and Pivot Points explained! Click Here

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TRADING PREDICTABLE

There are times when the market is murky, cloudy and choppy, but there are the sweet times when the market is crystal clear like a cool refreshing spring. That is when you want to be in it. Many traders try to swim in all market waters. This is a big mistakes. Dirty waters are full of sharks.



IF YOU DON'T CLEARLY SEE AN ADVANTAGE; DO NOT TRADE!!!!!







IF YOU CAN NOT SEE A TRADE SET-UP, IT IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ONE.



You may wait a whole day for a market set-up, never to get one. That is when traders get antsy and agitated and begin creating trades from thin air. Mostly ending up on the wrong side of the trade. WHY gamble with your capital like that?????????? THAT IS DUMB.



When the market is lost, let it wander, but you stay out. It is hard, I know, as all of your emotions are screaming at you not to miss out. Miss out on what??????



What you are missing out on is the set-up for the BIG KILL. SOMETIMES THERE IS NO TRADE and if you are wise, you except that and go find some other way to occupy your time. If you are no a pro, don't play the out-smart-the-market game, it will make road kill out of you fast. You may get away with it a time or two, but you can be sure that eventually it will catch up with you, because market strategies don't stay the same. It only takes that one 200-400 pip shake out day to change your world for the worst.



Trade when your trades are more predictable than not. Trade when the waters are cool, refreshing and crystal clear. Trade when the market is sending you a VERY CLEAR invitaion to jump in. If the water is murky, you can believe there are sharks. SWIM AT YOUR OWN RISK !!!!



YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)



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Greece is the Word

TRADING EMOTIONS

The hardest thing to master as a trader once you understand Market Rhythm is not the market, it is YOU. Emotional trading will break you fast.



Trading is not hard, it is mastering your emotions that is. Trading will teach you more about your human short coming than visiting a psychiatrist. As a trader, you must learn the discipline of waiting for proper market set-ups. That is hard!



Your EMOTIONS are screaming for you to jump in or you will miss out. NOT TRUE!! If you miss one trade set-up, the market is generous and will give you another. Learn to trade in harmony with your trend and with proper signals.







The emotions that are deadly to your trading success.



REVENGE, we all know it and have done it. It happens when you are tricked by the market and decide to take another trade before looking at the big picture, then BAM you are on the wrong side of the trade again. Pissed off and refusing to move while your money is going further down the drain. Scared to let go for fear that you are going to get tricked again.



PANIC, that is when you lack the confidence to enter or ride a profitable trade. This happens when you have taken some hits and now you lack the confidence to trade profitably.



IMPATIENCE, this happens when you can't wait for a proper trade set-up and jump on a price hiccup/retracement, often finding yourself on the wrong side of the trade.



ANGER, you know that feeling that comes over you when you have taken a hit or two and you want to kill your computer.



SELF PITY, when you come to the market hoping for crumbs and get none, and can't see why THEY won't let you have just a little bit.



DEPRESSION, something perhaps outside of the market has you at an extreme low point.



INDIFFERENCE, it happens when you have gotten hit so many times that you just don't care any more because no matter what you can't win any way.



All of these emotions work hard against you clouding your clarity and give other traders the advantage over you.



If you are experiencing any of these emotions when you enter your platform; abandon your trading until you have yourself under control and have the clarity of mind to trade. Not doing so greatly increases your chances of handing your money over to a trader who is more emotionally fit and controlled than you are.



We are all human and it happens to us all, but what weighs heavy in your mind will often weigh heavily in your pocket.



Come to your trading platform, well rested, focused and ready to trade. You may take an occasional hit; SO WHAT it is a LESSON. We all get them and if we learn the lesson that the loss has taught us; it will make us much better traders.



DO NOT TRADE YOUR EMOTIONS!!!!!----



TRADE WHAT YOU SEE ON YOUR CHART!!!!





YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)





HERE IS SOME FREE BRUSH UPS FROM TREND TV:

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CAN YOU BEAT THE SYSTEM ??

Can you beat the system ??

NO!, but you can still make great money. There is no humanly way that you can beat the system, but you can make a very comfortable and profitable living from forex. Forex has a language of it's own and in order to have a glimpse of success, you have got to learn the language. The better you master and translate the language, the more successful you become.

What is this strange language????

It is the language of the charts. It doesn't matter whether you interpret candlesticks or bars ( I have a strong preference for candles), you must learn to properly interpret this secret chart language of price action. Your charts are the only indicator that is telling you the real right now truth.

The only disadvantage to the charts that you see is that you can not see what is going on behind the scenes; but many times if you are properly interpreting your charts, you will glean clues about the possible direction of the market.

Even with the knowledge of this secret mysterious chart language of price action, you can still get tricked. It happens.

Why ?????

Because the house always has and will keep the advantage. You can only hope that your interpretation of the language of the charts will be profitable for you most of the times. If you are properly interpreting this language most of the time, you will do very, very well as long as you don't allow your losses to run forever.

Even after some traders become fluent in this price action language, they allow their losses to run and cut their profits short. THIS IS BACKWARDS and WRONG. The profits are suppose to run and the losers are suppose to be cut short. As traders, we all know if we had cut that trade short when we saw the market turn against us, we would have come out with a small loss as opposed to the crippling monster we ended up with. Don't allow your losses to run free. It is up to you when you are comfortable cutting them, but don't allow them to take over.

LEARN YOUR CHART LANGUAGE!

Going to your local library and picking up Steve Nison's book is a great place to start.

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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SUPPORT BOUNCE

Price will only fall so far before you get a bounce off of or near a support. Price WILL NOT fall indefinitely. Be extra careful when price makes a new low because one or two things are going to happen, it will either keep falling or it will bounce. More than likely, it will make a make a strong bounce.

Why????? because all of the sellers have gotten on board to sell. When there are no more sellers, the only logical thing to happen is for the buyers to come in and buy in force, creating a strong upwards bounce, trapping the sellers at the bottom.



Price falls strongly as long as there are sellers, but when the sellers are all gone BAM!!!!!! you have an upward explosion with nothing to slow the force of the powerful move upward. Now many of the traders trapped at the bottom are also forced to sell, creating more momentum for the upward move and prices continue to rise.

When you make an all new low and you get sideways action. Wait it out until you are sure you know where price is headed. If you get trapped, free yourself as soon as you can even if it means taking a small loss. It is better to be upset that you missed out on a great trade than to find yourself trapped in a trade that you wish you hadn't taken.

REMEMBER SUPPORT = BOUNCE, until price shows you differently. No matter what, wait for proper reversal/continuation signals near support before you enter the trade and please wait for your candle to close before making your trading decision. Those few pips that you think you will gain by beating out your competition are NOT WORTH IT.
All of the pros know to wait for an advantageous set-up and so should you (^_^)

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)



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Perth Mint to acquire full ownership of AGR Matthey

Last week the three partners in AGR Matthey decided to dissolve their partnership. The Perth Mint will acquire full ownership of the gold and silver refining business in Perth and Johnson Matthey will acquire full ownership of the platinum and silver brazing alloys business in Melbourne. Newmont will exit from these businesses entirely but will continue to have its Australian-mined gold refined at the Perth refinery. There are still some conditions precedent that need to be met before the deal is concluded, but the partners see no reason why these will not occur.

It is a move I am very excited about as it gives the Mint direct control over the refinery’s output, which is typically between 300 to 400 tonnes of gold a year. I’m reminded of the old adage, "He who owns the gold, makes the rules", but of course the Mint doesn’t own the gold, its clients do.

The substantial physical inventories needed to support this throughput, and the Mint’s own stock, have been backing Depository client metal for many years. All this acquisition will do is change the refinery’s inventory from being listed as a metal receivable in the Mint’s financials to being a directly owned asset. This should increase the comfort factor for many Depository clients even though it doesn’t really change the fact that their holdings have been, and always will be, backed by physical.

I will be interested to see how the Mint’s critics and competitors try to spin this news against us. It does make it hard to argue that a business that refines 300 tonnes of gold a year “doesn’t have any gold”.

Maybe they’ll argue that we had to get the refinery to plug the imagined short position that they think we have. Apart from exposing their woeful ignorance of how our operations and a refinery’s work, the logical conclusion of such a position would be that the supposed short position is now plugged, making the Depository a totally safe facility!

For those not aware, the AGR refinery operations were originally established by the Perth Mint in 1899 when it was founded as the Perth branch of the British Royal Mint. In 1998 the refinery was combined with the refinery operations of Golden West to form the AGR Joint Venture and then subsequently merged with Johnson Matthey’s Melbourne refinery in 2002. So in a way the refinery business is just coming back to its home.

TRICK CANDLES

There are two very tricky candles that I must warn you about. Both are part of the umbrella group. The first is the shooting star. The shooting star comes at the top on an uptrend and has a shadow twice the size of the real body. The thing about the shooting star is that it opens near the bottom of the candle goes up to create the illustration of a strong bullish candle, quickly turns on you, and closes near it's open. It can be bullish or bearish, but a bearish shooting star is stronger and more likely to create a reversal than a bullish shooting star.

A shooting star happens when the bulls are running strong with the ball , and it looks like they are going to score when the bears come in and slam them at the last minute. Many times the bears take over then run the ball the other way.  Sometimes there is a fight and there is a sideways standoff for a while.
The hammer is the other trick candle that you want to be aware of. A hammer come at the end of a downtrend and will mislead you with the idea that it is going to continue in a bearish fashion before price turns traitor on you. It is called a hammer because it looks like a hammer. A hammer opens near the top of the candle, falls strong before reversing on you, creating a lower shadow that is twice the size of it's real body . When you see a hammer form, it is a sign that you need to protect your profits.

The thing that is detrimental about the shooting star/hammer is that if you enter either before it closes, you will more than likely find yourself on the far end of the WRONG SIDE of the trade. If you are using candles as trading flagships, always let them close before you jump into a trade. Impatience in the face of either of these candles will break you fast.



YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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Living in a Powder Keg and Giving Off Sparks

PRACTICE, DRILL AND REHEARSE, CREATING GREATNESS

If you have been with me for a while, you have heard me preach PRACTICE, DRILL, REHEARSE! Guys you are entering into the toughest, trickiest market in the world, and you can not jump in and expect to make a killing. Every superstar, every winning athlete, when you don't see them, are PRACTICING, DRILLING AND REHEARSING the perfection of their art. If you want to do this for a living. You have got to PRACTICE, DRILL AND REHEARSE on a demo account !!.



You are going to get bruised, so what, every great athlete or performer does, and yes you are going to get your feelings hurt from time to time. Falling down does not create greatness, getting up does, no matter how many times it takes.

There are two ways to learn this market. The hard way like most of us, or find a good mentor that is willing to tell you the truth about what is going on here. If you are really struggling with your trading, STOP NOW !!!!! and get a demo account until you perfect some things. If you are still losing on your demo regularly, then you are not ready for a live account.



YOU CAN DO THIS, but you must discipline yourself enough to develop winning strategies. There are no perfect strategies, you are just looking for some that will put you on the right side of the trade most of the time.

Will you take a hit? Sure. So what, there are still plenty of opportunities for profit. If you are going to shine like a star in Forex, you must PRACTICE, DRILL AND REHEARSE on your demo account. I know you don't want to do it because you'd rather be making money. The thing that gives champions an advantage over the rest, is what they are willing to invest in their art. Super champions, musicians, actors, and all achievers have one thing in common and that is their willingness to go the distance to become great.

When ever you begin to trade live again; start off small, building both your account balance and your confidence. Over trading no matter who you are can kill you fast, the market is to unpredictable to gamble your families hard earned cash. Forex is like any other profession, it is a get rich slow game. Ok (^_^), you can do it here much faster than other places, but you must start off slow and light, and always keep learning. Yes FOREX TRADING IS EASY, it is the game that can be hard. It is a winner take all sport

Winning Trading to you dear Friend (^_^).

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Gold: The Ultimate Hedge Fund

THE INVISIBLE SIDE OF FOREX

THE FOREX MINDSET

There is nothing more important in forex than your mindset. It is the invisible magic that makes forex success possible. Most of us as Traders have been killed by the market, some of us over and over again.....lol. That was me (^_^).

The hardest thing to overcome when you have gone broke in forex is that broke mentality. That fear ghost from your past that holds you captive every time you are about to enter a trade. When the ghost has arrested you, his friends come to taunt you with horrible memories of what happened the last time. When price bounces and retraces, then a ghost jumps out of the closet and scares you to death. If you are still in the trade after all of that, then the doubt monster pays you a visit. Constantly talking to you, so you often end up abandoning a good trade. It is all a mind game designed to throw you. Price bounces and retracements happen to give the doubt monster time to play on your psyche.

The truth is price is going to go up and price is going to go down. If price has made a new low or high. Look to protect your profits, with proper confirmation. IT IS NOT THE TIME TO ENTER !!!! That is the time the market is most likely to make a hard bounce or retracement. Now you may enter as long as your candles confirm your move, but please wait for the candle to close before making your decision to jump in.

The market will lead traders like sheep to the slaughter, that is why if price is is running one way strong, (unless you have just come off of a bounce or retracement) you may want to wait. If you chose to jump in, you may only want to do so briefly. The most likely time for a strong turn in the market is when traders are all piled up on one side of the seesaw and the elephant comes and jumps on the other side and throws all of the traders off. In other words you are most likely to get trapped at new highs or new lows.



WHAT CAN YOU DO?????

Education - Education is the second most important factor to being successful in the forex market.

Your broker, I am sorry to say will give you enough information to get you killed. They only give you incomplete information which is the noose at the end of a short rope, then they let you lose and you hang yourself, and they collect big on your families hard earned money. You dust off, study harder, and go running off again, sure that you have learned your lessons from the past. Then it happens again, and you find yourself in this cycle of small success and big failure. It takes it's toll. It challenges everything you are, especially if you thought you were smart before entering this arena.

FOREX IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL MINEFIELD!!!!!!!!!! It is designed to mentally paralyze you until they have drained all of your resources from you.

Trading is not logical, in fact it goes against logic and wisdom. It is a trapping game run by professional trappers. The market never makes common sense to your mind or emotions, which keeps you thrown off. Wait until you can clearly see an opportunity where you truly have the odds in your favor and it happens less often than not. This is physiological warfare, a total minefield(mind game) in which you have to have nerves of steel and the ability to outwit those who make their living trying to cheat you.

THE REAL TRUTH IS THAT TRADING IS EASY, but of course they can't tell you that because then you would make too much money and they would never fatten themselves off of your blood, sweat and tears. They start you off with the most complicated stuff to deceive you into thinking that this is something close to physics or rocket science. That is the first mind trap, now you have convinced yourself that this is really hard because of the intense study and focus that you are giving to it. Even after all of that study (often times of the wrong material), you are still getting killed, so now you are convinced that it is rocket science.

You do need to educate yourself, but what you need is education in the things that are really going to make you a success at Forex.

The truth is Forex is simple. Now what is going to be hard is freeing your mind from those mental ghost that haunt you. What you may want to do to begin this process is to write down your fears and why you feel that way; then you are going to have to begin giving yourself a new message like "I am not that same scared trader who didn't know what she/he was doing, I am now a competent successful trader who understands what is going on in the market". You will have to do that fairly often in the beginning, but you stand and fight those ghost when they come to pester you and eventually they will go pester another trader.

THE BIGGEST THING TO BEING A SUCCESS AT FOREX IS BELIEF!!! THEN YOU HAVE TO ADD THE EDUCATION. NOT THE JUNK YOUR BROKER GIVES TO YOU, BUT THE GOOD STUFF FROM TRADERS WHO ARE MAKING IT HAPPEN.

I have no super forex secrets; I trade what I see, that is it. I only use candlesticks, trendlines, support and resistance. I do think that much of my past study aids in my trading. Learn the basics first, then add any other oscillator/indicator that you want. They go hand and hand, but you must understand how to use them properly. If you master the basics first, (candlesticks, trend, and support and resistance) then the other will make much more sense.

While you are fighting these ghost, it is wise to use your practice account until you perfect your strategy. Please go to your local library and pick up Steve Nison's book on Japanese Candlestick trading. I think it is a basic essential for successful trading. Once you have mastered your candlesticks and your candlestick patterns, then learn the other stuff. Also your practice account will help you learn and understand market rhythm. Every hour, every day, every week, every month...etc., price is going to go up and down, the trick is getting on the right side of the trade. Trading with the major trend with proper confirmation will give you the very best chance at success.

TRADING IS NOT HARD, but first YOU MUST BELIEVE that YOU CAN! Then with proper education, you must wait for the best time to enter a trade, that part will come with practice. The third biggest secret to successful trading is waiting. You can be a consistently profitable trader if you learn the art of waiting. Wait for proper trade set up. Be careful of new highs and new lows

Thank you my Friends (^_^)




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WAIT FOR PROPER CONFIRMATION SIGNALS

The biggest challenge to being a successful trader is waiting for proper confirmation signals before entering a trade. Many traders play the guessing game with the market even when they understand that they should buy low and sell high. In a bull market when they think price has gone up far enough, they sell and when they feel it has gone low enough, they buy to get a jump on the market, for what they are hoping is a big pay check. This kind of thinking is often Market Suicide, and will get you killed.

Price in a trend is like a locomotive freight train, it will run you over and never even feel you. You have got to wait until the breaks are applied and the train does a u-turn before trying to sell tops or buy bottoms. YOU CAN NOT GET A JUMP ON THE MARKET unless you are psychic. The market has successfully tricked traders for hundreds of years and is very efficient at it.

YOU CAN NEVER OUT GUESS THE MARKET !!!!! You can only follow where it leads, hoping it doesn't turn on you like a mad dog.

Sometimes you will wait for a proper set-up and still get stopped out, but waiting for a proper set-up is going to give you the greatest chance for success and put the odds the most in your favor.

There is no perfect strategy, but you are looking for one that will put you on the right side of the trade most of the time. Remember everyday your market is different, so develop a strategy for every kind of trading market. (The bullish, the bearish, consolidation and choppy). As a trader you will take an occasional hit, but it is the end of the month profit that you are looking to, not the end of the day profit. It is ok to lose a battle every now and then as long as you win the war.

The most simple trading strategy is to follow the current trend until your candlesticks tell you differently. A good trader spends much more time waiting than trading. LEARN THE PSYCHOLOGY OF YOUR CANDLES AND YOUR CANDLESTICK PATTERNS !!!!!!!!

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Government incentives to inflate debt away

Two interesting quotes caught my eye in a recent Andy Smith note:

"We cannot stop terrorism or defeat the ideologies of violent extremism when hundreds of millions of young people see a future with no jobs, no hope, and no way ever to catch up to the developed world" Hillary Clinton, Remarks to the Center for Global Development at the Peterson Institute for International Economics

For a moment there I thought she was talking about the US - "when millions of young Americans see a future with no jobs, no hope, and no way ever to catch up to the Baby Boomers". Generational class warfare anyone?

"could seriously disrupt bond markets if it triggered concerns about creditworthiness or inflation because of concerns with government incentives to inflate debt away" Bank for International Settlements in invitation to top central bankers and financiers for a meeting in Basel

This doesn't need any further comment for readers of this blog, suffice to say I find it interesting that the BIS acknowledges that inflating debt away is an option.

PS - unfortunately Andy Smith's stuff is not publically released, because I rank him as the top precious metals analyst.

I can feel it coming...

Forex Trading Strategy: Steps Everywhere

If you go back and check your chart on different time frames, you will find a wonderful treasure in plain sight. It is a low risk, easy to trade short term setup. The setups that I am referring to are your bullish and bearish steps. They are easy to spot as they resemble the steps you climb and descend on a daily basis.



The bullish steps:Your bullish steps are steps in which each candle is higher up than the preceding candle. When you notice the beginning of steps building, you want to look for your entry opportunity. In a set of bullish steps, price will drop below the high and often below the close (and sometimes close to the open) of the previous candle before continuing upward. First note the high and the close of the previous candle. When you note that price has fallen below the high, allow it to fall until you get a valid reversal confirmation in your candlesticks, going in the direction of your bullish steps. If you are trading a time frame that will allow you to do it, go to a smaller time frame and look for a valid reversal signal in harmony with that trend for an entry,  so that you can have a tighter stop loss.

The bearish steps:

Your bearish steps are steps in which each candle is lower than the preceding candle. In your bearish steps price will climb above the previous day's low and often time the close or even close to the open before resuming it's bearish pursuit. Allow price to trade above the low, then switch to a smaller time frame and begin to look for your entry point on your candlestick reversal in the direction of the bearish steps. Your stop loss should be placed the number of pips that you are comfortable with above the candlestick reversal pattern.

Please note that this is a short term strategy as your steps will eventually disappear, but they are a relatively profitable trade set up while they are in force.

WARNING: DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STAIRS UNTIL YOU GET A VALID REVERSAL PATTERN!!!!!!



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You can trade profitably my FRIEND!
(^_^)

This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.

Happy New Year!