I LOVE IT WHEN GOD DOES STUFF LIKE THIS

I love it when GOD does stuff like this. In my meditation the other day I opened my eyes and saw this picture of a dollar sign in two roses that I'd hung up to dry. I had to laugh out loud because I love it when GOD does this kind of stuff. I love knowing that GOD is paying attention to my life and let's me know it (^_^). That for me was a reminder that GOD is the GOD of abundance and has everything under control.

There are no limitations except for the ones that we place on ourselves. When we look at nature, everything testifies to GOD's generosity and love of abundance. GOD is the unlimited source and knows no lack! Open Yourself up to receiving more good from the GOD who so dearly loves You and wants to see You prosper. You have to do what our LORD CHRIST has instructed (If thou canst believe, all things are possible to him that believeth), You have to believe!

Quit preparing Your mind to struggle, there is only pain in poverty. Start training Your mind to believe in good for Your life and enjoy this wonderful journey more!

I loved this and just wanted to share it with You and remind You that the Great GOD is paying attention and wants You to prosper in good (^_^)

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)!

Open Forum

Peak Exorbitant Privilege

Tungsten Fake Gold Bars

Been busy at work and home, hence the lack of posts. I've recently posted on Tungsten fake gold bars for those who may not have seen it. I've posted before on this issue here and here.

Coincidentaly, the Mint has recently bought a "Panalytical wavelength dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) instrument" for $470,000. Before I get comments about how XRF's don't detect inside a bar, this unit is used for testing assay samples and those samples undergo a preparation process before being XRFed. Key process is melting the item to get an even distribution of the metal and then taking a dip sample.

Will be looking to post more regularly on the corporate blog (see here for a daily blog watch) and will continue with sharing stuff via my Google+ posts page.

Ball of Twine Open Forum

Sushi Island Savers Saga - Part 2

Savings & Capital Theory Open Forum

THE FOREX TRAP GAME

Every day big forex players set traps for little less experienced traders, and as they predict most of the less experienced and sometimes the more experienced traders fall in and lose their monies. Why???? Because trading forex the right way takes the extreme level of discipline that the big players know most people don't possess. The inexperienced trader often possesses the same knowledge as the pro, but the difference between the two is in the execution. The pro will trade a good plan with a very very high level of consistency while the less disciplined trader will try to wait out traps that he has fallen into with the hope that the market will eventually turn and come back in his favor sometimes losing days of sleep waiting for this miraculous turn about. This is the trader that big banks and institutions love because it is this poor undisciplined soul that the banks count on to make their nice lavish livings. It is the truly disciplined profitable traders that the banks lose paper on.

Everyday the banks and institutions use their financial advantages to move price in an artificial direction for a short period of time often creating what looks like a legitimate profitable trade set-up. The traders who see this advantage quickly follow the price move only to find themselves trapped soon after the move has begun. Now this is where the banks find their feeding ground as they know that only a handful of traders have the discipline to cut this small loss and wait for a better trade set-up. They know that most traders are going to cry, pray and beg GOD to do what they had the power to do all along; the next thing You know most of those guys have gotten a margin call and a large amount of funds are transferred from many many small traders who often can't afford it into a few large fat accounts.

This happens day after day after day and the sad thing is most traders don't get it and end up in a debt hell that creates their worst nightmare on earth; while the victors are laughing about their score all the way down to the bar where they will spend a few thousand dollars before they retire for the evening waiting to play the same set-up on unsuspecting traders the next day. It is the sweetest money making deal on earth, and it never changes.

DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOU!!!!!!
BE SMART AND FREE YOURSELF FROM TRAPS IMMEDIATELY!!!!!!!!!
DO NOT MOVE YOUR STOPS, IF YOUR STOP IS HIT, IT IS PROTECTING YOU FROM GREATER LOSS.
IF YOUR STOP IS HIT IT MEANS THAT YOU DON'T HAVE THE ADVANTAGE THAT YOU THOUGHT YOU DID AND YOU WILL JUST HAVE TO TRY AGAIN.

TRADING WITH DISCIPLINE IS THE ONLY WAY TO ENJOY ANY REAL SUCCESS IN FOREX. When the market traps you in a disadvantage, it will devour you without mercy!!!
SO FREE YOURSELF FROM EVERY TRAP!!!!!!

Wait for a proper trade set-up and when You see an advantage, go where the money is going.
Don't allow the money to move too far against You, otherwise Your goose will be cooked.

It happens everyday, don't allow them to keep tricking you the same way, and unless you trade with superior discipline, STAY OUT OF TIGHT CONSOLIDATION, it is too much of a gamble....

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)!

Today's (quote-unquote) "Gold"

Yo Warren B, you are so OG!

Elliott wave predits $32659 gold on 16 Jan 2015

Nick from Sharelynx with help from Geoff S has put together an Elliott Wave theory prediction using 'The Golden Mean' & 'Fibonacci Sequences' to arrive at the future price of gold. Click here for the chart.

It predicts the next peak as $3,559 in Jan 2013 with an eventual peak of $32,659 gold on 16 Jan 2015. Nick's comments:

The first two uplegs (blue line) generate (through the formulas) the future uplegs (red line) as the price heads to it's peak at W5(5). The Time, Price and Percentage of each leg up & down are shown on the edge of the chart.

So having left W4(A) behind the next 16 months we are heading up to W4(B). Presumptions are that the blue line (actual gold price) will stay above the red line for the first 1/2 of the next upleg falling to below the red line for the second half of the upleg and rising steeply into the peak of W4(B) as gold likes to do.

Perhaps gold's final top is W4(D) or W5(1) or higher and perhaps the timing doesn't play out right but this presumably will be something close to the shape of gold's rise over the next few years.

A nice speculation and one to dream about. I'm certainly going to be bookmarking this chart and checking back from time to time. If it works out with reasonable give and take then I think Nick will achieve Guru status within the precious metals internet community.

Catch Up

Been stockpiling the following for comment:

Silver shortage vs coin shortage

I've been on this issue for a long time, now I have backup from David Morgan: In 2008 there was no shortage of all silver per se, but there was a shortage of coins, bars and other retail “investment” items. The evidence: Much higher premiums back then for small silver products on the street versus the commercial price for average 1,000 ounce commercial good delivery bars in late 2008 and early 2009, since then corrected. I also note that he says it is a myth that silver is currently in shortage.

India's love of gold

Here in the West the average person (and Buffett) has no idea of how pervasive gold is in East society. Mineweb notes loans against gold as collateral was one of the country's fastest growing businesses. Though many Indians continue to use the glittering metal to flaunt their family wealth, most working in the informal sector, have few choices to borrow money and resort to pawning their family jewels rather than taking the longer route of bank loans. and By the end of November this fiscal, total credit issued by banks grew at around 20%, while organised gold loans grew at 50%, making it an increasingly important source of liquidity. Typically, most loans are repaid within four months, since most Indians prefer to hoard their gold.

Need to watch that word "hoard", which can become a dirty word. See this The government had raised the import duty of gold and silver to curb import of precious metals which result in huge outflow of dollars outside the country. Much better you save by giving your money to bankers and if you won't then Vietnam again leads the way with plans to "mobilize" Gold Bullion held by Vietnamese citizens "in service of the national socio-economic development".

Venezuela

Gata reports WSJ as saying Venezuelan officials completed a two-month process of repatriating 160 tons of the country's gold holdings Monday, by welcoming home the final shipment of the precious metal from Europe. Where are those excited gold bulls with the thought that the withdrawal of some 150-200 tonnes of gold from the Bank of England and bullion banks will force a squeeze on traditional stockpiles of gold?

Did Bankers Deliberately Crash MF Global to Crash Gold and Silver Prices? I can't split between JS Kim and Jeff Neilson for people who have come out of nowhere to be sudden gold market experts. Short answer to JS Kim - no.

Gold Commission

When I see Newt Gingrich calling for a gold standard I start to get worried. How much different is a gold standard under the control of a central bank from fiat? When I see mainstream articles discussing the issue, I wonder if the central bank gold standard is put up to sideline the Ron Paul open currency approach?

India's Gold

Italian banks pawning $976m of gold with Scotiabank?

In January FT Alphaville's Izabella noted that "Negative rates imply that banks are pawning gold in exchange for dollars. A move which happens to depress gold prices. But it’s always been difficult to establish who was pawning what and when, and how prevalent the practice really was."

She quoted Goldman Sachs who thought "this new demand for dollars was mostly from European banks using the gold market to source US dollar liquidity when their funding from the US money markets dried up, which created a significant amount of gold selling."

It is with interest then that in updating this post I noticed Scotiabank disclosed the following on page 37 of their 2011 Annual Report: "The Bank had exposures to Italian banks of $976 million, primarily related to short-term precious metals trading and lending activities."

Superorganism Open Forum

Martin Armstrong on metals manipulation

Below are some relevant extracts from Martin Armstrong's The Analytical Shill. The article is generally about how research and analysts are conflicted and how analysts and investors and gurus can be blinded by their biases. The paragraphs below are straight from the article and will jump around a bit because I've just pasted them in order they appeared without all the extraneous stuff.

Martin Armstrong:

The metals were one favorite sector where they were constantly bullish – never bearish for 19 years. But hey, the market manipulators always needed cheer-leaders to get people to buy every high so they could sell.

On the Buffett Silver Manipulation, it was PhiBro who had a shill call the Wall Street Journal and tell them I was trying to manipulate silver down because I was short. When the WSJ & I argued and they refused to print the name Buffett they demanded I give them, that forced the CFTC to act calling me to ask where was it taking place. I told them London and they called the Bank of England. When they in turn ordered all silver brokers to show up the next morning, Buffett was forced to come out and admit he bought $1 billion worth of silver but denied he was manipulating the price.

You can ask the guys at GATA. They were well aware of the first 1993 Manipulation by PhiBro (Philips Brothers). They got in bed with Buffett when he stepped in to run Salomon Brothers after they got caught MANIPULATING the US Government bond auctions. They began buying silver and the CFTC stepped in demanding to know who their client was. Now if it had been anyone else, PhiBro’s reply was they refused to tell the name of the client. Forget the law. That does not apply to New York firms. The CFTC responded saying if they could not know who their client was, then PhilBro had to exist the trade. They did and of course made a fortune for the hawkers had all the little guys buy silver just in time for PhilBro to sell it to them.

This is WHY the manipulations began to move to London. Not only did PhiBro try to get me on board, their broker walked across the floor and SHOWED my broker Buffett’s orders at the low!

To create the fundamental, they moved inventory from New York to London. They were manipulating silver as always. Playing games with the inventories. They were moving silver from New York to London where the Buffett orders were being executed. This made the US warehouse inventories drop sharply. Go look at the analysts who talked silver up on that very fundamental. If they said there was a shortage of silver and you better buy it is going to $100, then you may be dealing with a shill or a biased analyst.

Many of the metals analysts with an agenda back then hated my guts. How dare I say there was a manipulation when it was at last silver was going up instead of down. Now I was part of some covert conspiracy hell bent on suppressing the metals because I dared to say “they are back” (manipulators) and the target was $7 by January 1998. To this crowd, a manipulation is always to the downside and never up.

Go check the recommendations of analysts back then. See where they stood. The best one I heard was silver was in demand in London because it was .9999 there instead of .999 in New York.

GATA began to see the same nonsense that I did during the early 1990s. It was just that I saw the manipulations as being UNBIASED. In other words, they did not care what they manipulated as long as there was a guaranteed profit. They manipulated even base metals such as rhodium. They manipulated platinum in league with Russian politicians who strangely recalled all platinum to take an inventory. Hell, Ford Motor Company filed suit over that manipulation.

How do you distinguish a REAL bull market from a bullshit manipulation?

Most manipulations can be seen easily when you look at a market in terms of a Basket of Currencies. Why? Because a REAL bull market must take place ONLY when it rises in terms of ALL currencies. Unless that takes place, investors in some countries will be sellers while others are buyers. Here is a classic example as to why we were bearish on gold for 19 years despite the hate mail and the best attacks of the shills. The manipulators ALWAYS need to get the metals guys worked up into a fever to sell to them to make their profits and big bonuses.

So when analysts only espouse one side, be very careful. For no matter what the market, there is always a time to rally and a time to pause. Nothing is ever straight up or straight down. Anyone who portrays that is either ignorant of the market behavior, or a shill – paid cheer-leader. Putting out bogus research has been the name of the game. Unfortunately, there are just some people who are hardcore.

Markets are the same mix as politics. There are people who simply believe in a given position and no matter what you say or what evidence you present to the contrary, they will never believe it. Thus, I have NEVER been interested in preaching to the choir. I have always preferred the independent thinker – the investor who wants to really learn about market behavior and not read someone who simply supports their never changing view of the world. Nor am I interested in exchange words with those who may not be shills, but are just part of a particular hardcore group. I am cheered only when I agree, and if I disagree, I am despised. But that is expected in the retail world – NEVER in the professional institutional world.

There cannot be a perpetual bull market in anything anymore than you can stand there with your arm straight up in the air. Oh shore, you can do it briefly. But then your arm will feel so heavy you can no longer keep it up. Everything takes a pause for the same reason you sleep at night. Nothing can maintain the same energy output all the time. People come up with all sorts of excuses why they are right yet the market declines. Usually it is some conspiracy of a mythical group so powerful that they just win.

Markets collapse because EVERYONE who ever thought of buying has bought. They are now counting their profits for the next eternity. Something happens and scares the herd. Suddenly, the long try to sell but there is no bid. The market collapses in the blink of an eye. Why, because the majority has already bought and there are no new buyers to keep the momentum going. It is never some mythical short player preventing the upward advance. It is just not time yet.

Philip Tetlock, a professor of organizational behavior at the Haas Business School at the University of California-Berkeley, has been following the so called experts for some 25 years studying primarily the institutional forecasting skill of political experts. He had signed up nearly 300 academics, economists, policymakers and journalists keeping track of more than 82,000 forecasts plotting them against real-world results. He analyzed not just what the experts said but how they reasoned and how quickly they changed their mind in the face of contrary evidence. He also tracked how they reacted when they were wrong, which was of course the majority of the time. Most could not even beat a random forecast generator.

Tetlock's research did discover that there was one kind of expert turns out consistently more accurate forecasts than others. The most important factor he discovered was not how much education or experience the experts had but how they actually thought. The best forecasters were those who were self-critical, eclectic thinkers who were constantly updating their beliefs when faced with contrary evidence instead of clinging to dogma. He found the best were suspicious of grand schemes and conspiracies and were more practical about their predictive ability. The less successful forecasters clung to the same ideas never wavering pushing the same idea to the breaking point of absurdity. These types of people were more often embraced by the media because they loved to articulate and persuade as to why their idea explained absolutely everything.

Tetlock uncovered widespread forecasting failures. Of course, there is the herd of followers who for some reason want a GURU and unrealistically expect infallibility. This may reinforce the pundits that like to put on a show and claim why they are personally better than everyone else and only their ideas are correct and when wrong, it is the result of some giant conspiracy, not their lack of ability to forecast.

The key to the future lies in the UNBIASED view of whatever it is. You cannot be married to a single position EVER! Tetlock points out that a successful analyst always qualifies their arguments with "however" and "perhaps," while the dangerous analysts build up momentum with "moreover" and "all the more so" as they try to be more entertaining. The dangerous analyst wants to keep the clients happy and to a large extent preaches to the choir telling them what they want to hear.

The one thing about markets is that the MAJORITY just have to be wrong! Why? They are the fuel that drives the market up and down. Trap the majority either long or short and you create the fuel for the next move in the opposite direction.

So for now, it is far better to let the markets speak. As I stated at just about every conference I have ever given, there is ONLY one analyst that is never wrong – that is the market itself. The key to successful trading & forecasting is to learn how to let the market speak to you and go with the flow. It does so in both TIME as well as PRICE. Turning points are NEVER specific events, but inflection points where highs and lows take place. It would have been nice to have a low first and a more orderly advance afterwards. But markets like to create the worst of all worlds.

So for anyone who thinks he can beat the game as an analyst or trader, must remember one thing. The market is always right. To survive, we have to align ourselves with the market and listen when it speaks. This is not a game for arrogance and prognostications fixed in stone steeped in bias and dogma. History repeats – but also with a slight twist. So how high will gold go? It is a question of CONFIDENCE.

You will ALWAYS be your greatest adversary, for to succeed you must conquer your own biases, fears, and doubts. You cannot do that as Philip Tetlock has keenly demonstrated with fixed ideas. If you are married to a philosophy and will not yield and blame everyone else for conspiring against you and that is the reason something has not yet unfolded, you better see a shrink.

RISK MANAGEMENT

Glimpsing the Hereafter

THE TWO JOBS OF EVERY TRADER

Traders obtain all kinds of knowledge, build successful trader's vocabularies and spend a fortune on classes, webinars, robots and other complicated systems trying to learn to be successful in the market. The problem with most traders is that THEY COMPLICATE TRADING, heck You don't have to do many things in forex to be successful, but there are two jobs that every traders must master in order to be a true success in forex.

Job #1

PRESERVE WEALTH

Job #2

BUILD WEALTH

Number 1 is much much much more important than number 2 because You can not build on wealth unless You first preserve what You have got. I believe that not preserving the wealth that they already have is the number 1 mistakes traders make.

Preserving wealth and building wealth, doing these two things consistently will bring You more success than doing many complicated things. The traders who are successful are successful more because they are disciplined than they are smart. After some education most of us know the same things; so why is it that a few people are successful here and most are ever grasping at success, but never fully tasting it. It is because while we all have the knowledge, only a few will practice it consistently. I am not successful because I know more than You, I am successful because I am willing to do what most traders fail at. I first preserve wealth by cutting bad trades quickly; secondly I build wealth jumping back in when I see an opportunity and letting the really sweet fat trades run and run and run. As a trader, You will have more chances to enter bad trades than You will good trade, so make the good ones really count.

Successful traders can pass along ideas for forex mastery and success, but no one can really tell You the best way to trade because there are many ways to be successful in forex, but once You have honed in on a good system, trade it consistently and You will come out ahead. No matter which system or time frame You choose to trade remember Your two jobs everyday............

PRESERVE WEALTH!!!!

BUILD WEALTH!!!!

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)!

Open Forum

Inconsistent nonsense

Worth reading this response by Victor the Cleaner in FOFOA comments to this question: "At the moment, in order to influence the Gold price downwards, all that needs to be done by the authorities in LBMA and COMEX, is to raise the margin requirements."

This is complete and utter nonsense.

LBMA is a trade association and not an exchange and as such does not set any 'margin requirement'. The LBMA member firms are typically those banks and other financial institutions that trade gold and silver OTC in London, but non-members around the world also trade OTC with these institutions.

When Newmont has some trucks on the road on the way to the refiner, they might want to sell that gold immediately to eliminate any further price volatility from their accounts, and so they might phone JPM and sell that stuff forward. None of the two counterparties is a speculator here. Newmont does have the real stuff, and JPM does have the cash. So even if they would require collateral, this would not influence the price.

Yes, there are probably some raw recruits who follow websites such as TF and who trade COMEX futures in under-capitalized accounts. Yes, CME occasionally raises the margin. Yes, they may just be checking who is the under-capitalized novice and who really has the cash in order to purchase the gold for the contracts they hold. Yes, they may just rip off the clueless novice for fun (and money). But to think this would set the spot price of gold is quite a hubris.

The OTC market is ten times bigger than COMEX, and so it pushes COMEX around in a way that most COMEX-fixated goldbugs don't understand.

If you want to keep gold cheap in the long run, you need to create a huge volume of gold loans, expand the 'money supply'. If you want to manage the price of gold intra-day (and yes, there is indeed statistical evidence for this), you need to sell a lot of gold at spot in a short period of time. But you can do this only if you are a credible financial institution and only as long as you can hand over the allocated whenever your counterparties request it. So you need to understand extremely well what you are doing and how much physical per paper you need to be able to show. Hiking the COMEX margin is a side show.

What I find rather disappointing is the extremely poor quality of the discussion that is presented on the typical precious metal websites. This is financial product pushing of the same quality as pre-1999 when they IPO'd the companies that sell dog-food online.

Here are FOFOA, people discuss a very good reason for owning gold. For some reason, the mainstream goldbug websites totally ignore the good reason and push gold with inconsistent nonsense instead.

Why is that? Want to scalp PSLV? Want to create a mania, sell them financial products (including GoldMoney which is no longer 'money' by the way) and then when the big blackout comes, grab the gold for cheap from those who sell in panic because they never understood why they owned it in the first place? Very sad. And when the Financial Times calls the goldbugs confused idiots, sadly, there is even some truth in this statement.

If Victor keeps this up I'll be out of a blogging job.

Yonder ...thur be DRAGONS!!

Survivor Bias and TBTF Tyranny

London Banker "has been a central banker and securities markets regulator during a varied and interesting career in global financial markets" and is a very credible commentator IMO. From his latest:

"Perhaps gold is being used as collateral for margin and cash liquidity, sold by counterparties to bring the price lower, leading to margin calls for even more. A crisis arising from a major default (Greece, Portugal, a huge bank) would force the price lower still, when the collateral would be exercised on default. Following on, the price might rocket again to enable the conspirators to seize outsize profits. Just a scenario, mind you! (Although, I note that Lehman's counterparties reported record profits through much of 2009.)

What is left of the global markets becomes a game of engineered survivor bias. Only those operating outside the law and with unlimited regulatory forbearance can win while the rest of us lose."

Some may remember my comments on FOFOA blog about how "Bullion banks are like spiders in the center of a web. They can feel the twitching of the flies in the web and determine the mood of the market better than anyone else and often in advance of others."

London Banker again: "Their top down view of clients' trading and custody portfolios and cash positions and flows puts them in a position to exercise tyranny. They can game their clients, taking advantage of superior information, credit and liquidity to ramp or crash targeted markets as needed to precipitate a crisis."

In other words, it is not just about avoiding debt (or its variant, leverage/derivatives) but also avoiding having most of your positions and trading with one bank.

Reading this stuff makes me comfortable that the Perth Mint will be one of the few left standing after all this is over. We don't engage in speculative trading/risk taking and the AAA rating means we don't have to beg and put up collateral with banks to be able to do the covering trades and other transactions necessary to keep the business running.

In the coming flight from risk, it won't just be about moving to cash (and hopefully many moving to precious metals), but it will also be about a flight to riskless/conservative counterparties. The problem for those looking to store precious metals is that at that point the Perth Mint is likely to run out of capacity - both in physical storage and also insurance (as we fully insure - few others do). All that will be left then is personal storage, which won't be a problem for those with small holdings. But for those with multi-million dollar holdings it will be tough as there aren't many non-bank fully insured custodians.

The lesson is to prepare now, which I'm sure all my readers have, as it is going to get nasty.

Gold Scams

I've got a post up on the corporate site you will like about gold scams - hat tip Kid Dynamite for the lead story. I've included three real life examples of scam emails that the Perth Mint has received. You will (or won't) be surprised that it is not just average people fooled by this stuff - we have been contacted by suburban accountants and lawyers trying to facilitate a $100 million deal without pausing to think why a legitimate buyer wouldn't just come to us directly and save themselves a 1% commission.

Expert says: Money spent on gold is practically wasted

Regular readers of this blog know I watch reports from Vietnam as an indicator of how Governments deal with large flows of money out of fiat and into gold. Non-first world countries feel this more I think and thus they give us a view into the future as to how first world countries will respond when they get hit with a real loss of faith in the ability of fiat to hold value over time and/or a view that there are few productive investment opportunities in the economy.

This Mineweb article on India raising import taxes on gold and silver has some interesting quotes in this respect:

"...this hike will discourage imports ... that is what the government wants, since imports have made a huge dent in India's growth story and growth seems to be flagging"

"The shift away from financial savings to something which will just lie in lockers around the country could be a large contributing factor to lower growth..."

"Another expert with a nationalised bank pointed out that money locked up in the yellow metal effectively disappears from the economy to become jewellery or sits idle in cupboards and bank lockers."

"Money spent on gold is practically wasted and it is also excluded from the financial intermediation system. Imports needed to be curbed."

"The massive jump in gold imports has also led to an increase in current account deficit."

No surprise that most of this plays on the "gold is useless" meme. In actual fact I agree with that. One's savings are better invested in productive businesses and entrepreneurs rather than an inert metal.

However, what the financiers, technocrats and politicians don't get is that movements into gold are a clear signal or vote by savers that the economy is crap. The solution is not to block the signal, but to solve the underlying problem. Actually the way to solve it is to get out of the way and stop fiddling with the economy but that would put them out of a job I suppose.

What these guys are doing is taking painkillers so the pain in their chest won't bother them. Then they'll all be surprised when they get a heart attack. Indeed, money flowing into gold is painful. That's the point.

The Gold Must Flow

Emotions, Premiums and Backwardation

Good interview between Jeff Lewis (silver-coin-investor.com) and Grant Williams (vulpesinvest.com). Grant makes a very good point on emotions influencing how events are interpreted (my emphasis):

" It’s important to try and keep a sense of balance because the way things trade, particularly in silver, it’s easy to get fixated upon an idea and to blame every move on that particular idea. In the case of silver, the big theory about silver is the manipulation of the COMEX futures. ... It’s a dangerous game to sort of ascribe every single move in an instrument to a construct that has yet to be proven beyond any doubt. While I suspect there is definitely something untoward going on the silver futures as Bart Chilton has intimated in his comments this past year. I think it’s a very dangerous game to not have a balance, to just simply look at the way markets behave, look at the extraneous events that may have an effect and cause the de-leveraging or liquidation and to try and get a more rounded picture of why something moves now."

Later he says what the extraneous event was:

"I think a lot of that downdraft we saw in both gold and silver going into year end, was just people who are having to raise cash and selling the thing that they had a little bit of profit built into. Now, once they start going down, the shorts are going to press that; and so these falls get a lot more vicious than perhaps they would be in just an orderly market where people were looking to sell a bit of precious metals to raise some cash for year end. But as I say, you have to try and take your emotions out of this thing."

Interesting here that Grant says that the initiator of the price drop was year end selling, which was further "pressed" by speculators. I made a similar point in this corporate post when talking about bullion banks being aware of falling Indian consumer demand. My point, and Grant's, is that not everything is a manipulation (as in being initiated by speculators) and sometimes speculators are just riding a physical market trend. Don't drink the Kool-Aid (or should that be "Silver-Aid") of the pumpers which blame every price drop on manipulation but who never question any price rise.

As Ted Butler says (my emphasis) "... when silver experienced two separate 35% price declines in a matter of days. Such a decline in a world commodity for no observable supply/demand reason is unprecedented and I would say impossible in a free market." Same applies when you have the London AM Silver Fix increasing 20.1% over 24 hours from $10.77 to $12.93 on 18 Sep 08 (note: I can't find two 35% price declines in London Fix data, Ted must be talking intra-day).

Some who has been drinking the Silver-Aid is Tyler Durden with the silly headline Physical Silver Surges To Record 30% Premium Over Spot, In Backwardation. Regrettably, it was picked up by Money Morning Australia (from whom I'd expect better), to which I left this comment:

"What that chart tells us is that PSLV is a closed end fund with some possible tax advantages with good marketing, hence the premium. In the real physical wholesale silver market which is not constrained by a limited number of shares, Perth Mint is not having any problem acquiring, or selling, silver at spot."

Tyler must be drinking a lot of Silver-Aid or desperate to alleviate the cognitive dissonance of a circa 25% increase in COMEX silver warehouse stocks since mid-2011 to claim that a stock exchange listed trust is as good as and representative of cold hard physical in your hand.

Further proof that Tyler is suffering is his conclusion that the backwardation discussed in Keith Weiner's appended article "means, although for those who like the punchline here it is, as above: shortage" when, if you read Keith's good article, he says at the bottom that (my emphasis) "In a normal commodity, backwardation means shortage. ... But in gold and silver it means something else entirely. People have the metal. But for whatever reason(s), they choose not to take this free money. In the silver market right now, trust is in short supply."

Why everyone thinks that Zero Hedge is a credible source when in this example (and I have others) he can't even understand that Keith is saying there isn't a shortage of metal, there is a shortage of trust. I covered this idea in the Gold Standard Institute's 2009 Canberra seminar - see this post on Degrees of Distrust.

I've left this comment on ZH, let's see what comes of it:

"Perth Mint does not incur any premium when it pulls physical out of London. Whoever is feeding you that is making a fool out of you. If you really are independent and after the truth, more than happy to chat with you anytime - you have access to my email in my profile."

There are plenty of good reasons to hold precious metals I don't know why people resort to this shortage and premiums meme - maybe it is just a simple idea easily understood and communicated compared to some more intellectually dense analysis of the market's supply/demand/stocks.

Anyway, to finish on a more upbeat tone, here is Grant again:

"... we are left with an awful lot of strong hands holding silver now. I’m here in Asia, the futures price is really more of an irrelevancy. Over here it’s all about physical metal both in gold and silver and so we see a lot of buying of physical metals here in Asia when the price comes down on the COMEX and we see premiums expand because it’s very tough to get delivery."

I focus on the base trend for precious metals and see it driven by increasing numbers of strong hands. The day-to-day volatility (down AND up) is driven by leveraged money of speculators and hedge funds and bullion bank prop desks. I'd suggest ignoring that volatility, otherwise you waste too much emotional energy stressing about it. Just buy your PMs (or dollar cost average in) and forget about it and relax. That's what insurance is for.

The Studebaker Effect

Reasons For Gold’s Weakness

I've got a post up on corporate site riffing of a recent Jeff Clark article on the same issue, adding in some comments on declining Indian demand and how the bullion banks would have played it. Click here to download the pdf article.

I'll be posting a bit more stuff on the corporate site from now on as I'm off a project I've been working on, so more time to focus on the commentary. You'll see from the pdf format I'll be writing under the Treasury department name. We are looking to beef up the commentary and analysis, maybe with a dedicated subsite under perthmint.com.au. More info to follow and will be interested in feedback and suggestions.

THE 5 DEADLIEST WORDS IN TRADING

AH, IT WILL COME BACK, these are the five deadliest words in trading..........

They are the words used by traders to comfort themselves as trades move against them, depleting their wealth. If You find Yourself using these 5 deadly words, then that is a trade that You should have already cut.

Many times we used these words fully confident that the market is going to come back in our favor, but these are the words used by every broker trader before they go bust. NEVER TAKE A CHANCE ON SOMEONE PULLING THE FINANCIAL RUG FROM UNDER YOUR FEET!!!!!!!!

As a trader You have 2 jobs everyday
Job #1
PRESERVE WEALTH

Job #2
BUILD WEALTH

There are crazy market days when it is NOT WHAT YOU EARN, IT IS WHAT YOU KEEP, that's more important to Your bottom line.

If Your account balance is $50,000.00 USD and You have a trade going against You at -$45,000.00 USD, then You only have $5,000.00 USD. The $50,000.00 balance gives traders a false sense of security. PLEASE PAY MORE ATTENTION TO THE EQUITY IN YOUR ACCOUNT THAN TO THE ACCOUNT BALANCE. Your equity is where Your TRUE WEALTH lies. If You are comforting Yourself by looking at the $50,000.00 balance instead of the -$45,000.00 that's devouring Your account; You are deluding Yourself. YOUR EQUITY IS WHAT COUNTS, SO PROTECT YOUR EQUITY!!!!

SUMMARY
The three most important lessons of this blog post are:

If You are telling Yourself, 'Ah it will come back", that is a trade You should have already cut. These are the 5 deadliest words in trading.

Your #1 job in trading is to preserve Your wealth!

Your #2 job is to build Your wealth!

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)!

Party Like It's MTM Time

Gold The Most Explored Mineral Commodity

Got a post up on the corporate blog on how 50% of all money spent on non-fuel mineral exploration during the last 15 years was spent on gold exploration.

And from the "who can make the most dramatic price forecast" department comes The Possibility of $1,000 Silver before Hyperinflation. Has anyone made a higher call?

To save you reading the whole article, here is the key logic behind the headline:

"...with gold at this relatively conservative top of $10,000 - if silver is at its historic 16:1 average in relation to gold - silver will be $625 per ounce. We have also explained above how it is entirely possible for silver to overshoot this 16:1 average, which is normally what happens when a trend has been misaligned for such a long period of time. If silver does reach a 10 to 1 ratio as it has done before at different times throughout history, then we would be seeing a price of $1000 per ounce..."

I suppose when you start off with the assumption that $10,000 gold is "relatively conservative" then $1000 silver is not far behind.

The key "gotcha" is in the headline: "before Hyperinflation". That is not a situation in which you want to trade your silver for $1000 of soon to be worthless fiat.

GOLF AND FOREX

Forex for most traders is like a very expensive golf addiction. Everyday they play their little hearts out, but never make it out of the sand trap. The more they play the deeper in debt they get.....

WHY????????

Why is it that You have a handful of traders that truly become forex masters while the rest remain amateurs???????

It's simple really........Losing traders hold on to losses, while talking themselves out of following profitable trades. It is a vicious cycle, holding losses because of fear, blowing up another account, adding money to your account with your credit card, saying this time will be different while struggling to pay bills and climbing deeper in debt. Sound familiar????????????

This is not the way this game is suppose to be played, yet for MOST traders this is the harsh frustrating reality. The brokers who trade against You count on You holding losses so that they can send their children to Ivy League colleges, drive fancy cars and send their wives to those swank salons. The more traders hold losses the better lifestyles brokers enjoy.

Forex is suppose to pay You, not be a continual vacuum hose draining Your families wealth. THE #1 CAUSE OF FAILURE IN FOREX IS LACK OF DISCIPLINE!!!

Any forex master will tell You that forex is not hard, it is the discipline to consistently trade a winning strategy even through a series of losses that is hard. Forex is psychological warfare, it creates a kind of prisoner of war mentality for the losing trader, whipsawing him around back and forth, stopping him out until he is so confused that he doesn't know which way to go. When the real trading opportunity presents itself, he is too scared to enter and if he does enter he exits too soon because he is always on pins and needles waiting for them to trick him, so instead of riding the trade for the full profit, he jumps off while he has a little safe profit.

The #1 predictor of forex failure is the inability to cut a bad trade. IF YOU CAN NOT CUT A BAD TRADE, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO WIN HERE. There are a ton of systems teaching You tricks and strategies; but few tell You a critical truth that if YOU CAN NOT CUT A BAD TRADE, then eventually You WILL SURELY LOSE no matter how big Your starting balance may be.

A healthy prosperous trader is different in that he sees a good set-up and enters, if he sees that the advantage is lost, then he recognizes it for the trap that it is and quickly gets out, preserving as much capital as possible for the better trade. A trading star realizes that he can always earn back whatever was lost and even more.

If You take a hit, don't consume Yourself with the amount loss, CONGRATULATE YOURSELF for being smart enough to save your wealth to take advantage of the trading opportunity that will allow You to increase wealth.

It is an old but very true saying, especially in forex, 'A STITCH IN TIME SAVES NINE!' In other words cutting that bad trade will save you from digging a deeper hole in the sand trap of debt and allow You to begin to build instead of deplete Your family's wealth.

All successful traders trade with superior discipline. LACK OF DISCIPLINE IS THE KILLER IN THIS GAME.

The best thing about forex is that You don't even have to be that smart to do it. Any man of normal intelligence with the patience to wait for a good trade set-up, the strength to cut a bad trade and the patience to ride profit to fruition can do well here.

EXPECT TO SUCCEED IN FOREX. IF ANYONE ELSE CAN EXPERIENCE SUCCESS HERE, YOU CAN TOO!

YOU CAN ABSOLUTELY DO THIS (^_^)

HAPPY PROSPEROUS TRADING 2012!

Happy New Year!

Is PAGE dead on PBOC ban on non-Shanghai gold exchanges?

Mineweb (ex-Reuters) is reporting that "Gold exchanges in China outside of two in Shanghai are to be banned, authorities said in a statement released on Tuesday."

Looks like the much hyped Pan Asia Gold Exchange is dead. Not sure where this leaves those who claimed that it "will ultimately destroy the remaining short positions in both gold and silver".

I will come back to this story but for the moment I want to see how the pumpers and hype merchants spin it, or unspin what they said before.

I also find it interesting that this story breaks at the same time as China Daily reports that "China should further diversify its foreign-exchange portfolio and make more gold purchases when the metal's price dips but is still at a relatively high level, a senior central bank official said on Monday."

What is China's game re gold? How can we weave these two stories into a coherent explanation?

Merry Christmas North Korea

Safety cookies

What are safety cookies? Gold coins. Very amusing charaterisation in this article from Terry Coxon of Casey Research

Terry sees safety cookies (or coins in your pocket) as the first rung on the ladder of internationalisation. In light of the recent IRS reporting requirements, which require US persons to report "all worldwide assets subject to exceptions and applicable threshold amounts", you could also call coins privacy cookies.

Unsegregated Allocated

Following on from this post from 2009 where I identified five types of storage (Segregated Allocated, Unsegregated Allocated, Unsegregated Physical Backed, Unallocated Fully Hedged, Unallocated Unhedged), we now have confirmation that "Allocated" metal at a bullion bank is unsegregated from this interview with Kyle Bass (42 minute mark) where he talks about bars being all over the place when they did an audit.

The unsegregated nature of bullion bank allocated is why Bob Pisani picked up the wrong bar in his visit to the GLD vault as part of a HSBC promo.

This unsegregated storage is not necessarily a problem and would not make a difference in any bankrupty of a custodian as the key "segregation" is the specific bar numbers and weights in the client name. Whether bars belonging to two different clients sit together on the same pallet or are on separate pallets separated by air, I cannot see making a difference.

GoldMoney is no longer Gold Money

Digital Gold Currency Magazine is reporting that GoldMoney is suspending the ability to make and receive payments in precious metals to or from other GoldMoney customers due to the "global increase of compliance requirements for payment service providers."

This capability was the key differentiator of GoldMoney to other online precious metal storage businesses. It is an unfortunate development for gold standard advocates.

The decision was not entirely driven by increased regulations as GoldMoney also indicate that "our customers’ use of the metal payments and currency exchange services is not significant." Looks like a case of disporportionate compliance effort for GoldMoney on something that didn't drive business.

Interesting then that customers have voted and said they aren't really interested in gold as money. Possibly this may change if those customers are faced with high inflation or banking system instability, but it will be hard for GoldMoney to restart the functionality and catch up with any regulatory requirements in place at the time (assuming there is any regulatory tolerance for alternative payment systems at that time).

Freegold anyone?

Has Gold's Uptrend Been Broken?

I have a post up on the corporate blog featuring a Sharelynx log chart of the gold price.

There is also a very good video of why gold was (is?) favoured as money over other elements/metals in this post The Science Of Gold

And in response to this cheeky question from JR re that post "Is the Perth Mint claiming that gold is money due to its unaltering quality!?", the answer is No. The "What others are thinking" category on the corporate blog is for non official views and maybe the wording "gold is all but unrivalled as the outstanding candidate for money" could have been a bit more qualified in retrospect. :)

RIP Kim Jong Il

My thoughts on Freegold

A reader, LS, asked for my thoughts on the following topics:

1) freegold
2) the gold for oil trade
3) the current price is not a real physical price of gold because of happenings in COMEX/LBMA
4) do you believe the current world affairs will resolve itself towards freegold or something similar?

Firstly, I haven't had the time to read FOFOA in depth given the amount of material and thus give it justice. My comments here are therefore tentative thoughts.

Freegold is very interesting and I can see the logic of the idea of leaving fiat to perform the medium of exchange role and gold the wealth store role. I have a feeling free banking (see also) and a restriction on maturity transformation would need to be involved for it to work. There is a hell of a lot of discussion condensed in that sentence, more than I have time for at the moment.

I would also argue that Freegold needs to allow gold leasing but not gold lending. By "leasing" I mean as in leasing a car, ie physical asset rented (not borrowed and sold). Manufacturers of gold products like the Perth Mint could not operate without leasing because with Freegold's ban on lending of gold and other financialisations it would be difficult (impossible?) to hedge against gold price movements.

This leads to my next point, which is that the gold price under Freegold would not be stable and still exhibit some volatility. This is because under Freegold people can save excess wealth either in gold or by investing in productive enterprises (ie true investment). Human nature being what it is we will still have overestimation of the success of productive enterprises, thus failures, thus business cycles, ths varying preferences to store wealth in gold versus investments.

On the Oil/Gold idea, I don't have an option as this is not an area of FOFOA I've looked at much.

The current price is a real physical price as physical buyers and sellers of size (giants) are willing to exchange at that price. When aversion to counterparty risk really hits market players (MF Global you'd think should have been enough), then we will see a divergence between paper and physical.

As to the fourth question, well this is bound to my answer in the paragraph above, which is a necessary condition, but not sufficient, for Freegold to emerge. You would also need consensus that a gold standard is not the answer, and there are strong forces working towards that end. Possibly the biggest problem is getting people to understand the reason why financialisation of gold needs to be banned. How it will end is impossible to predict.

Either way it is going to be exciting to see how it plays out.

FOFOA, New Vaults and physical/paper price

A couple of weeks ago FOFOA made the following statement:

Do you remember the stories about HSBC clearing out space in their vaults, or JP Morgan building new vaults? What could be the explanation for this if the aggregate gold stock is so stable? Then it occurred to me that unallocated storage is much more space-efficient because the gold sits stacked on pallets. Allocated gold often gets put into cubby holes to assist in recordkeeping. That takes up much more space. So the process of allocation after many decades of non-allocation requires an expansion of vault space. This is how I now interpret these stories.

I left a comment suggesting other reasons for new vaults:

1. Investment's share of demand vs jewellery/industry is much higher now compared to past, thus more going into vaults rather than around necks.

2. ETFs and others (eg Goldmoney) share of investment demand vs coin/bar is greater compared to past, thus more going into vaults rather than backyards.

3. Industry consolidation during gold bear market meant vault closures and thus increase in utilisation of remaining vaults, leaving less spare capacity to absorb above factors before new vaults were needed.

Just to clarify that last point, say there were 10 vaults with capacity of 100oz but each was only holding 60oz. Total spare capacity is 400oz. Then you have 3 vaults close during gold's bear market and metal is moved into the remaining 7 vaults. You now have 600oz in 7 vaults, leaving only spare capacity of 100oz.

Another point is that allocated metal is not "often gets put into cubby holes". Allocated does not rely on physical segregation by client. For example, you can have a pallet of 32 x 400oz bars with 32 owners of each specific bar number on that pallet. My guess is that except for all but the most paranoid client (mostly likely central banks), most allocated at bullion banks is held this way, rather than piles segregated by client.

I also forgot to mention that my guess is that the amount of physical supporting unallocated metal accounts with bullion banks has increased, that is the fractionalisation has declined. This puts further pressure on vault capacity.

Evidence for this is that whereas unallocated accounts were free a number of years ago, there is now a small fee on unallocated. My guess is that the physical turnover/redemptions have increased in line with a more busy gold market and thus bullion banks have needed to hold more physical to back their unallocated to deal with day to day fluctuations.

Of course it could just be the banks going for a fee grab if they felt their clients would just accept it.

And while I'm doing posts on my comments on FOFOA's blog, here is another for those who don't follow the FOFOA blog comments closely - and I can understand that considering some posts get 400+ comments (link here):

Re 1) [major refiners would start posting their own price for physical gold, having their own auctions, making the trading volume public], that is what the Perth Mint already does. The 5 tonne or so per week we refine is currently auctioned. Settlement can be full cash, but mostly is done in London paper gold plus a cash premium. I just watch this premium, it will tell me when paper gold has really disconnected.

BTW, miners sell their metal to us either for cash or swap for paper gold (which they then on trade).

The system will break when miners find few willing to take their paper gold or the price offered is much lower than what we will pay. And in that situation we will always be after to better the offers they get because we are getting better prices for the real physical at the other end.

Because the Perth Mint stands as intermediary between physical buyer and physical seller, the miner is always informed as to the real price of gold.

We are not reliant on the London market to tell us the price, we make a Perth price every day. However currently London is a convenient settlement mechanism for us the miners and the buyers, but it is just to help the flow.

Negative Gold Lease Rates (again)

If Tom from Metal Augmentor keeps on putting out great stuff like this post on negative lease rates, then I'll be out of a (blogging) job.

It is heavy going but a comprehensive discussion of the issue with a dramatic speculation that "The selective collateral nature of the tri-party format may force bullion banks to eventually declare their unallocated LBMA gold accounts as backed by 100% physical bullion." Other key points if you don't have the time to read the 8500 word article:

"leasing is probably done directly by the bullion banks on behalf of commercial banks for a fee. Instead of pledging the assets acquired with the sale proceeds of gold leased pursuant to a carry trade, the borrower of gold now pledges existing collateral that it could not otherwise sell without incurring a loss. The central bank accommodates the gold leasing by accepting a wide range of collateral that would be otherwise prohibited in conventional funding schemes"

"An outright sale of gold could always be hedged by acquiring a gold forward contract. Therefore, even if gold leasing has not experienced a recent resurgence, the increase in the gold forward rate indicates that owners selling gold to generate liquidity still want their gold back once the funding need has abated. The combination of a falling gold price and rising forward rate is quite a bullish feature of the gold market that is lost in the reporting on negative gold lease rates."

"the persistence of negative lease rates could be accompanied by the emergence of something entirely new: The result could be negative gold “lease rates” as gold price expectations may create an entirely new phenomenon: cash borrowed to buy gold for future delivery (what I call “gold bonds”). In effect, this is the equivalent of gold owners forward selling their gold at higher and higher prices, and receiving cash up front to be used for current liquidity needs. The above scenario may appear a lot like the current futures market because it involves leverage but the difference is that “gold bond” transactions are 100% backed by metal."

A few of comments:

Tom: "From the perspective of the borrower (typically a bullion bank or its customer, a hedge fund), gold was historically leased as a way to fund a gold carry trade under which excess returns could be earned by using the sales proceeds from leased gold to purchase highly-rated securities meeting the central bank’s collateral requirements."

Bron: This is by far the major use of leased gold, but gold can also be leased by users/manufacturers of gold products to provide physical funding of their work in progress inventories, which does not involve any sale of the leased gold.

Tom: "As just mentioned, the gold (or silver) lease rate does not represent the actual rate at which lease transactions are being done in the market. The published lease rate is simply an indicated value derived from two related variables, the gold forward rate and LIBOR."

Bron: In support I would say that the Perth Mint has always paid positive lease rates when borrowing gold, although it does so for inventory funding rather than carry trade etc reasons. Note Perth Mint borrows without posting ANY collateral because of the West Australian Government's AAA rating.

Tom: "a customer may execute a gold swap with a bullion bank pursuant to which the customer’s physical gold is initially stored in an unallocated account and used as the collateral for dollars loaned to the customer. The bullion bank then sells the gold from the unallocated account to replenish its funds and concurrently enters into a gold forward contract with a gold refinery. The forward contract is then used to back the gold liability to the customer."

Bron: My emphasis on "physical" in that. This sequence of transactions is what fractional bullion banking is. In this case the customer's metal is "lent" to the refiner.

Tom: "sane market participants will naturally demand that gold as a financial instrument retain its utility as the ultimate collateral for non-recourse funding. Under these circumstances, the appearance of 100% physical backed LBMA unallocated bullion accounts seems like a very good possibility"

Bron: I note that some years ago balances in LBMA unallocated accounts attracted no fee, whereas now there is a very small account fee as % of value. Indication perhaps that bullion banks have had to increase the percentage of physical backing unallocated (and thus need to recover that cost) due to an increase in physical redemption/turnover on those accounts.

MF Global and HSBC case

As usual, Zero Hedge and others hype a story way beyond the reality (see here for the Bloomberg story), such as:

ZH: "is whether or not MF Global was rehypothecating (there is that word again), or lending, or repoing, or whatever you want to call it, that one physical asset that it should not have been transferring ownership rights to under any circumstances."

TF: "A lawsuit such as this one could easily bring about the total destruction of the Comex/LBMA-based, fractional bullion banking system"

Here is a suggestion, read the actual Interpleader Complaint for the facts:

1. Mr. Fane and MFGI entered into five COMEX gold contracts and three COMEX silver contracts relating to the Property. HSBC is the depository for the Property pursuant to a certain Gold Delivery Point Agreement and a certain Silver Delivery Point Agreement entered into between HSBC and the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.

2. By e-mail dated October 25, 2011, MFGI notified HSBC that "MF Global’s customer Mr. Fane would like to take possession of [the Property] and move [the Property] to his account at Brinks (sic). I have already canceled for load out. Customer will advise of date and time.”

3. Mr. Fane did not contact HSBC to request that the Property be transferred to his account at Brink’s prior to the Commencement Date.

4. By letter dated November 18, 2011, HSBC, through its undersigned counsel, notified the Trustee that it had possession of the Property. HSBC also notified the Trustee, in light of HSBC having received instructions from MFGI prior to the Commencement Date to transfer the property to Mr. Fane upon his request, that HSBC would act in accordance with MFGI’s prior instructions barring an injunction or contrary instructions from the Trustee.

5. By letter dated November 21, 2011, Mr. Fane requested that HSBC transfer the Property to his account at Brink’s.

6. By letter dated November 22, 2011, the Trustee, through his counsel, asserted to HSBC that the Property constitutes customer property under Part 190 Regulations of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and that the treatment of the Property must be administered by the Trustee. The Trustee further instructed HSBC not to release the Property to Mr. Fane.

7. By letter dated November 22, 2011, HSBC notified Mr. Fane that the Trustee had instructed HSBC not to release the Property to him and that the Trustee asserted an interest in and claim to the Property.

Not being a lawyer, I read this as "before you went bankrupt, you said I could have my metal", "yeah, well, you didn't take it before I went bankrupt, so it is now part of the bankruptcy proceedings".

So no rehypothecation or loaning, no "suing" by HSBC, no stealing or counterfeiting of the bars and certainly not the total destruction of bullion banking. Just another lesson in counterparty exposure and possession is nine tenths of the law.

Unambiguous Wealth 2 – The MF Global Chronicles

Unambiguous Wealth

The Squirrel and the Grasshopper

The text below was forwarded to me a few years ago and I rediscovered it today. I've edited it to take out Australian specific references. The Squirrel and the Grasshopper story really resonated with me when I first heard it as a kid. I thought the squirrel was prudent. I’m sure other kids felt sad for the Grasshopper. I propose everyone can be divided into two groups – those who side with the squirrel and those who side with the grasshopper.

ORIGINAL VERSION

The squirrel works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building and improving his house and laying up supplies for the winter.

The grasshopper thinks he's a fool, and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.

Come winter, the squirrel is warm and well fed. The shivering grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.

MODERN VERSION

The squirrel works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.

The grasshopper thinks he's a fool, and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.

Come winter, the squirrel is warm and well fed.

A social worker finds the shivering grasshopper, calls a press conference and demands to know why the squirrel should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others less fortunate, like the grasshopper, are cold and starving.

The media shows up to provide live coverage of the shivering grasshopper; with cuts to a video of the squirrel in his comfortable warm home with a table laden with food and informs people that they should be ashamed that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so while others have plenty.

Do gooders demonstrate in front of the squirrel's house. A Lefty Politician rants in an interview that the squirrel got rich off the backs of grasshoppers, and calls for an immediate tax hike on the squirrel to make him pay his 'fair share'.

In response to pressure from the media, the Government drafts the Economic Equity and Grasshopper Anti Discrimination Act, retroactive to the beginning of the summer, and creates The Grasshopper Housing Department. The squirrel's taxes are reassessed. He is taken to court and fined for failing to hire grasshoppers as builders, for the work he was doing on his home, and an additional fine for contempt when he told the court the grasshopper did not want to work.

The grasshopper is provided with a Grasshopper Housing Department house, financial aid to furnish it and an account with a local taxi firm to ensure he can be socially mobile. The squirrel's food is seized and re-distributed to the more needy members of society - in this case the grasshopper.

Without enough money to buy more food, to pay the fine and his newly imposed retroactive taxes, the squirrel has to downsize his home.

A 60 Minutes special shows the grasshopper finishing up the last of the squirrel's food, though spring is still months away, while the Grasshopper Housing Department house he is in, crumbles around him because he hasn't bothered to maintain it. He is shown to be taking drugs.

Inadequate government funding is blamed for the grasshopper's drug 'Illness'.

The grasshopper gets arrested for stabbing an old dog during a burglary to get money for his drugs habit. He is imprisoned but released immediately because he has been in custody for a few weeks. He is placed in the care of the probation service to monitor and supervise him.

Within a few weeks he has killed a guinea pig in a botched robbery.

A commission of enquiry, that will eventually cost $10 million and state the obvious, is set up.

Additional money is put into funding a drug rehabilitation scheme for grasshoppers.

The grasshopper dies of a drug overdose.

The usual sections of the press blame it on the obvious failure of government to address the root causes of despair arising from social inequity and his traumatic experience of prison.

The squirrel’s taxes are increased to pay for law and order, and they are told that they will have to work beyond 65 because of a shortfall in government funds.

Discussion Forum

TIPS FOR FINDING GOOD TRADES ON A SMALLER TIME FRAME

People find many ways to be successful in the market, some use price action, some use trend lines, some use moving averages and other indicator, some use the news and some use support/resistance, etc. Whichever method You use to bring You success, supreme discipline will make it even more successful. REMEMBER: Your biggest opponent to market success stares back at You from Your own mirror.

Since you never know what the market is going to do, always be prepared to cut a trade that has moved against You. If You are telling yourself, it will come back that is a trade You should have cut.

With a good signal, You are only likely to get 2-6 trades per 24 hour day that yield 30 pips or more on the EUR/USD.

Since the market doesn't trend most of the time, it is a good idea to master other forms of trading.

Let's talk about ways to increase your odds of getting some of those trade set-ups.

Know Your candlestick reversal patterns.

Understand support and resistance.

Understand trend lines, moving averages or any other indicator that you are using.

The more things You have confirming Your analysis the more likely You are to have entered a successful trade.

Example:
A hammer at a point of previous support that closes above a major moving average, at a Fibonacci retracement, with a MACD cross and an oversold Stochastic. That is a pretty extreme example, but more confirmations You have to Your advantage the better.

Always be sure that your flagship candle closes prior to entering the market, because like the hammer in the paragraph candles can drastically change form in the last minutes or seconds of a candle's closing.

Considering that You have so few really great trades in a day, You need to put as many odds in Your favor as possible.

Try to trade the more active liquid markets

If You are in a range bound market be sure to identify resistance and support. Only counter-trend off of resistance or support with proper candlestick confirmation.

Trade in harmony with an established trend.

Swing trade swing highs and swing lows in a swinging market.

Wait for a candlestick candle to close confirming a signal.

Have 2 or more things confirming Your analysis.

Take good candlestick reversals within a trend and against the trend. In an established trend You will have corrections and retracements, getting a strong reversal signal in harmony with the established trend usually makes for a good entry.

No trend goes on forever, at some point trends take hard dips and reversals. Candlestick reversals make valuable entry signals in these situations. The more confirmation to that signal the better.
If the next candle engulfs Your entry candle, GET OUT!

Often times reversals at the beginning of a trend is a trap. The more established Your trend; the more likely it is to reverse with proper reversal confirmation.

Trend lines and moving averages are good temperature gauges, they help identify a trend that has already started or they can show market strength or weakness. A price break and close above usually indicates strength and a break and close below shows market weakness, but these can also be market shake outs.

KNOW THAT UNLESS YOU ARE A GREAT SCALPER, YOU DO NOT NEED TO BE IN THE MARKET ALL DAY. AFTER A GOOD RUN, YOUR TRADE IS LIKELY TO RUN OUT OF GAS. Use this time to rest and wait for the next trade. YOU USUALLY DON'T GET GREAT TRADES BACK TO BACK. THERE IS USUALLY A WAITING PERIOD IN BETWEEN GOODTRADES. LIKE A BUS SCHEDULE INCLUDES WAITING PERIODS BETWEEN BUSES, SO DOES THE MARKET BEEN PROFITABLE TRADES. THERE IS A WAITING PERIOD, SO WAIT; OTHERWISE THE MARKET WILL TAKE BACK THE PROFIT IT GAVE YOU!!!!

THE VERY BEST SET-UP CAN FAIL. THE MOST IMPORTANT TOOL IN A SUCCESSFUL TRADERS TOOL BOX IS THE CUT SCISSORS TO CUT A BAD TRADE QUICKLY!!!!!!

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SUCCESSFUL TRADER AND THE UNSUCCESSFUL TRADER IS DISCIPLINE!


If You get tricked, CUT THAT TRADE SHORT AND TRY AGAIN LATER!

DISCIPLINE WILL DO FOR YOUR FAMILY WHAT DESIRE WON'T!!!

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)!

Moneyness

THINK PERCENTAGES AND MONEY MANAGEMENT

This was the Email Response I got from the $236 video challenge and I loved it so much that I had to share it!

People don't realize that it's not how much you have in your account that determines success. Whether you win or lose, its all based on percentages. Its still the same percentage of the account gained or lost on an account with $100 as it is with $10,000 or even $1,000,000. 5% gained is $5 on the $100, $500 on the $10,000 and $50,000 on the $1,000,000. The actual returns, money wise is different.. but the percentage gained is the same. People who say success isn't possible with a small account, don't know their percentages well.

You can successfully grow a very small account with proper knowledge and discipline. In fact, its smarter to start with a small live account until you can trade with discipline and confidence; that way you don't lose as much initially. A small live account is training grounds to build a larger account.

What's the point in adding funds to your account if you can't build the little you have in your account already?? If you're losing and not gaining consistently.. putting more funds into your account is just going to ensure that you lose more! It is the consistency of applying a good strategy, not the account balance that gives a trader the advantage.Hopefully traders understand the value of thinking 'percentages', instead of account balances.

If you think in percentages, you also understand the value of money management so much better.

For example, if a trader loses 50% of their account, it requires a 100% gain (double!) to get to break even. Whereas, a 25% loss requires only a 30% gain (a mere 5% over the loss) to break even.

A good trading system combined with strict disciple, and good money management will lead to success for any trader, no matter what their account size!
HAPPY TRADING!!!

Thanks Steve!!!
LOVED IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!(^_^)!