Seb
Non-Linear Regression Model on 4H time frame points out imminent correction is comming.
But overall trend remains bullish:
الأحد، 7 أكتوبر 2012
NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures Daily & Weekly Update
Before we call it a top I would rather wait for confiramtion.
Seb
Non-Linear Regression Model on 4H time frame points out imminent correction is comming.
But overall trend remains bullish:
Seb
Non-Linear Regression Model on 4H time frame points out imminent correction is comming.
But overall trend remains bullish:
GBP/USD H4, Daily & Weekly Update
This is the current labeling for this pair.
As far as price action remains ranged into great triangle teritory, we will still label this as ABCDE triangle wave 4. So far it looks like price wants to test the 1.6000 area before any attempts to go higher. If this retracment will complete in 23% - 38% Fibonacci area the prospect of wave E to the upside are greater. We might even see somewhat impulsive upthrust out of the triangle as a wave E final impulsive wave would finish.
On H4 chart there is a Leading Diagonal wave 1 proposition.
So far Non-Linear Regression Model is going nowhere fast with little bend to the upside.
Gann Fan somewhat works quite well in providing support and resistance.
As far as price action remains ranged into great triangle teritory, we will still label this as ABCDE triangle wave 4. So far it looks like price wants to test the 1.6000 area before any attempts to go higher. If this retracment will complete in 23% - 38% Fibonacci area the prospect of wave E to the upside are greater. We might even see somewhat impulsive upthrust out of the triangle as a wave E final impulsive wave would finish.
On H4 chart there is a Leading Diagonal wave 1 proposition.
So far Non-Linear Regression Model is going nowhere fast with little bend to the upside.
Gann Fan somewhat works quite well in providing support and resistance.
السبت، 6 أكتوبر 2012
EUR/USD H1,H4 & Daily Update + Gann Fan + Regression Lines
Because wave B can not be in 5 waves we are on the cross roads here: either we will break up in impulsive fashion to develop wave C or the price will break through support and will progress with wave c to the downside.
Chart H4 and Daily present bullish perspective.
Bullish case is being supported by Gann Fan 1x1 line (no break of this most important line). Please notice : If price break through to the upside then next Gann resistance line is somewhere at 1.3400 area:
But bearish case is being in view by Non-Linear Regression Model. H4 clearly points to the downside:
Chart H4 and Daily present bullish perspective.
Bullish case is being supported by Gann Fan 1x1 line (no break of this most important line). Please notice : If price break through to the upside then next Gann resistance line is somewhere at 1.3400 area:
But bearish case is being in view by Non-Linear Regression Model. H4 clearly points to the downside:
AUD/USD H4, Daily & Weekly Update
I'm still looking for wave E to finish: either here at the level of wave a or, in case of valid broken suport level, much lower at the triangle trend line support.
Daily Gann Fan is pointing out some support at 1.0045 area.
Weekly Non-Linear Regression Model is showing clearly what is going on with this pair and that supports the view of lower triangle trend line support to test as a wave E progress - round top.
Hourly view is even worse but price is close to Murray Math support.
Daily Gann Fan is pointing out some support at 1.0045 area.
Weekly Non-Linear Regression Model is showing clearly what is going on with this pair and that supports the view of lower triangle trend line support to test as a wave E progress - round top.
Hourly view is even worse but price is close to Murray Math support.
Gold XAUUSD Daily, Weekly Update + Gann Fan
Waiting for the ending diagonal to finish around 1800 level.
Non-Linear Regression model predicts more upside to come.
Seb
Non-Linear Regression model predicts more upside to come.
Seb
S&P500 Futures H4 & Daily Update
For the bears: H4 count shows that we might go higher to complete wave (c) before any movement down.
For the bulls: Daily Elliott Wave oscilator did not crossed the zero line yet so we might expect more upside to come as a wave 5 of wave 3. It is however quite tricky right now to point out any good level where wave 5 might end. My Fibo Expansion shows first level on 1491, where wave3= 2x wave1. But with another projection we might go as high as 1500 easy.
For the bulls: Daily Elliott Wave oscilator did not crossed the zero line yet so we might expect more upside to come as a wave 5 of wave 3. It is however quite tricky right now to point out any good level where wave 5 might end. My Fibo Expansion shows first level on 1491, where wave3= 2x wave1. But with another projection we might go as high as 1500 easy.
Crude Oil Futures H4, Daily & Weekly Update
Wave 4 did not overlapsed wave 1 on Daily and Weekly chart desplite the very deep retrace in WXY fashion.
Right now I'm looking to wave 2 of last wave 5 dawn to finish and to develop wave 3 of wave 5 in impulsive fasion.
Alt count suggest that we might have wave 2 top already and the remaining price action does act like impulsive wave 3 in developing.
The price is currently in Fibonacci Time Cluster zone with high score. The cluster ends on Monday.
Seb
Right now I'm looking to wave 2 of last wave 5 dawn to finish and to develop wave 3 of wave 5 in impulsive fasion.
Alt count suggest that we might have wave 2 top already and the remaining price action does act like impulsive wave 3 in developing.
The price is currently in Fibonacci Time Cluster zone with high score. The cluster ends on Monday.
Seb
الجمعة، 5 أكتوبر 2012
S&P500 E-mini Futures H4 Update
Wave a stalled at Weekly Pivot Level. Break up would mean that the upside targets are in play.
Nevertheless, this could be the top for that wave and wave (c) as well, but we need a confirmation for that.
Seb
Nevertheless, this could be the top for that wave and wave (c) as well, but we need a confirmation for that.
Seb
EUR/USD h1 & H4 Update
The rally stalled at 61% FibRet of latest swing down. There is Weekly Resistance level No 2 as well , so it might be quite a hurdle for bulls.
Nevertheless, I expect more upside progress in waves to finish wave 3 or (c) somewhere at 1.3120 area. That Could be a nice move in three waves up as a whole wave B.
There is a possibility that this move upward (that might be labeled as wave B) is finished in three waves up (a) (b) (c) @ 61%Fibo.
Seb
Nevertheless, I expect more upside progress in waves to finish wave 3 or (c) somewhere at 1.3120 area. That Could be a nice move in three waves up as a whole wave B.
There is a possibility that this move upward (that might be labeled as wave B) is finished in three waves up (a) (b) (c) @ 61%Fibo.
Seb
Crude Oil Futures H4 Update
The latest swing up voids the immediate bearish count so it looks like we will have more messy, time consuming corrective wave 2 that I'd thought.
Untested resistance/supply level on chart.
Seb
Untested resistance/supply level on chart.
Seb
الخميس، 4 أكتوبر 2012
Crude Oil H4 Update
Corrective wave (iv) to test weekly break line and continue with wave (v)?
Syrian-Turkish tensions might spoil the view...
Seb
Syrian-Turkish tensions might spoil the view...
Seb
الأربعاء، 3 أكتوبر 2012
Crude Oil H4 Update
Oil below weekly break line.
Latest drop is in 5 waves oh H1 already so it might consolidate for wave (iv) now.
Seb
Latest drop is in 5 waves oh H1 already so it might consolidate for wave (iv) now.
Seb
The EUR/USD most important update so far on this blog
I do not trade today as I'm waiting for ECB Thursday and Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.
So, I've been trying to update the blog all morning and I've started with long term count of EUR/USD. I noticed it was wrong: my wave 4 blue already overlapsed wave 1 so the impulsive bearish structure has been invalidated. I have switched to weekly, re-labeled and this is what I got:
It looks ok so far so I 've started to update the Daily chart and this is what I got so far:
It looked correct as far as I could see.
But then I've checked the OLD 4H chart and it hit me when I saw it: there was and old abandoned wave that I used to label on my 4H chart - bold blue wave 1 and 2. I stoped to count and label according to this wave progress due to the suggestion that bold blue wave 3 is taking too much time to develop, nevertheless there was nothing wrong with labeling the current progress of this wave. I just looked at higher degree charts (higher TF) and it did not fit there. So I gave up counting it and including it in my charts.
And today, when I was wondering why the hell my wave 4 overlapsed the teritory of wave 1, I zoom out my chart and saw it straight away - I changed wave 2 navy to higher degree of ABC correction and rest of the puzzels just fit in perfectly.
You see, I used to count this move from 1.49000 last year every day on 15M, 1H and 4H time frame charts. And according to the fractal wave principle, if it fit on lower TF it must then fit on higher TF. IT DOES NOT GOES THE OTHER WAY! And I abandon this lower TF count because it did not fit well in the higher TF. And I should not do this to correctly count the waves according to fractal wave principle.
So, this is the count I re-labeled (4H TF):
Right now I have added this wave back on Daily TF and this is how it looks like:
So, right now I will be tracing two counts to see if Elliott Wave Principle can work so well on long term charts like those two presented above.
First count is the ABCDE ( wave B) triangle breakout to the downside in impulsive wave -main count
Second count is red 1, red 2 and now red 3 impulsive breakout from 1.4500 area - alt. count.
Time will tell.
Hope it helps,
Seb
PS: Flippin' hell , this is the longest post n this blog so far....! LOL
So, I've been trying to update the blog all morning and I've started with long term count of EUR/USD. I noticed it was wrong: my wave 4 blue already overlapsed wave 1 so the impulsive bearish structure has been invalidated. I have switched to weekly, re-labeled and this is what I got:
It looks ok so far so I 've started to update the Daily chart and this is what I got so far:
But then I've checked the OLD 4H chart and it hit me when I saw it: there was and old abandoned wave that I used to label on my 4H chart - bold blue wave 1 and 2. I stoped to count and label according to this wave progress due to the suggestion that bold blue wave 3 is taking too much time to develop, nevertheless there was nothing wrong with labeling the current progress of this wave. I just looked at higher degree charts (higher TF) and it did not fit there. So I gave up counting it and including it in my charts.
And today, when I was wondering why the hell my wave 4 overlapsed the teritory of wave 1, I zoom out my chart and saw it straight away - I changed wave 2 navy to higher degree of ABC correction and rest of the puzzels just fit in perfectly.
You see, I used to count this move from 1.49000 last year every day on 15M, 1H and 4H time frame charts. And according to the fractal wave principle, if it fit on lower TF it must then fit on higher TF. IT DOES NOT GOES THE OTHER WAY! And I abandon this lower TF count because it did not fit well in the higher TF. And I should not do this to correctly count the waves according to fractal wave principle.
So, this is the count I re-labeled (4H TF):
Right now I have added this wave back on Daily TF and this is how it looks like:
So, right now I will be tracing two counts to see if Elliott Wave Principle can work so well on long term charts like those two presented above.
First count is the ABCDE ( wave B) triangle breakout to the downside in impulsive wave -main count
Second count is red 1, red 2 and now red 3 impulsive breakout from 1.4500 area - alt. count.
Time will tell.
Hope it helps,
Seb
PS: Flippin' hell , this is the longest post n this blog so far....! LOL
الثلاثاء، 2 أكتوبر 2012
الاثنين، 1 أكتوبر 2012
AUD/USD Weekly Update
AUD/USD Non-Linear Regression Analysis model quite clearly says what we might expect next.
Seb
Seb
EUR/JPY H4 Update
The impulsive nature of the last wave down in five sub waves indicates that we might see one more wave down as wave c after wave b correction. That should complete wave 4 down and then EUR/JPY should head up for new high of wave 5.
Seb
Seb
EUR/USD H1 Update
Price action range betweet two pivots so far.
Pleace notice green trendline has been touched multiple times. Breakout for wave c up anyone?
Seb
Pleace notice green trendline has been touched multiple times. Breakout for wave c up anyone?
Seb
EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update
As I said last week: Triple Zig-Zag in progress or begining of wave 5.
Time will tell.
First level of untested area ahead.
Seb
Time will tell.
First level of untested area ahead.
Seb
الاشتراك في:
الرسائل (Atom)