EUR/USD M30, H1 & H4 Update

Wave C of wave (b) could take the price as high as 61% of Fibo and channel line resistance before any significant drop would develop.

Seb

Crude Oil H4 and Daily Upade + Regression Chart

It looks like there is still one more wave down before any significant correction would take place.

Non-Linear Regression model clearly shows the way.

EUR/USD M30 Update

Does not looks like an impulsive wave anymore to me.

Maybe this?

Seb

EUR/USD M30 Update

This is my current view: the impulsive (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) is alt. version of labeling.

Count labeling changed to best fit one after wave 1 - 4 overlapse.


Seb

EUR/USD M30 Update

Looks like this fifth wave might get extended.


Seb

NASDAQ Futures Daily Update

Wave 5 was brought to You by Apple.

Seb

S&P500 Futures H4 Update

It might be the end of this wave 4 correction.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

There You go.

Seb

EUR/USD M30 Update

Is this it?

30 minutes chart

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Impulsive bearish move down ALMOST invalidated due to  wave 1-4 overlapse rule.

So far we are in the no man's land as the price action from the yesterdays bottom looks more corrective than impulsive.

Seb

Crude Oil H4 Update

Textbook moves my friends!

Wave (v) still  might get extended...

Now the area above wave 4 is very strong resistance: recent lowes, Fibos and Pivots.


Seb

Debriefed #8 – Poopyjim

S&P500 Futures H4 Update

Still in correction mode.

Seb

GBP/USD H4 Update

So far so good.

Wave a of wave c might end @ 61% here so a little correction is needed before more upside.

Seb

S&P500 Futures H4 Update

End of wave 3 or just the begining of wave 3 folks?


Seb

EUR/USD H4 Update

Alternative point of view.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Pretty straightforward outlook.

Bullish bias.

Seb

GBP/USD H4 Update

Upside first before more downside or straight on plunge?

Seb

EUR/USD H4 Update

Invalidation line added.

Seb

NASDAQ Daily Update + Regression Channel

So far so good, it looks like we have not finished with wave 3 yet.

Seb

EUR/USD H4 Update

All moves are three waves corrective moves.

More upside to come as wave C of wave 4 will develop.


Seb

Crude Oil H4 Update

Told You so, wave 3 is comming...


Seb

Debriefed #7 – Jeff

Guest post on blackberries

So I send this article http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/16/technology/blackberry-becomes-a-source-of-shame-for-users.html to a friend I know likes their blackberry and got this funny response:

That is a terribly biased article probably written by someone from the "Apple we are the Rulers of the Brainwashed Universe Organisation" and come on the Blackberry is a good phone and direct message/e-mail option with a typing device without all the unecessary time wasting colorful superficial distractions attached to it.

People are so egocentric and afraid of not having what every one else has these days everyone has been convinced they must have a phone with a touch screen so they can look and behave like everyone else, it is beyond laughable. Not to mention peoples current insecurities are so heightened these days that they can not even manage to be seen in public with out clutching their most up to date version of the latest touch-screen-comforter-blanket-device for fear that they will be ridiculed by someone with a more recent PHONE, OMG!

I will continue to be proud to pull out my simple Blackberry device over all the page flicking, stupid touch screen, pointless App obsessed, incredibly expensive i-must-have-devices.

Fricking Hell people are so SHALLOW and operate under such a unified SHEEP MENTALITY which is seemingly only getting worse as the consumerist frenzied marketing VIRUS continues to INFECT the whole abominably unintelligent portion of the POPULATION.

Debriefed #6 – Aaron

Debriefed #5 – Wendy

GBP/USD H4 Update + Gann Fan + Regression

So far not very much is going on.

Seb

EUR/JPY H4 Update

Might be triangle forming.

Seb

NASDAQ Futures Daily Update

The price is belowe weekly pivot support level 2 and now price is bouncing up from level 3. Below that is only void this week.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Nice three wave move to the upside and trend line test.

Seb

S&P500 Futures Mixed Three Rising Wedge H4 Update

For the bears.

Nice Doouble Top scenario.

Seb

S&P500 Futures Daily Bullish Fork Update

For the bulls.

Seb

Crude Oil H4 Update

Textbook moves again. LOL.

Breace Yourself: the mighty wave 3 is comming.


Seb

Debriefed #4 – DP

EUR/USD H4 Update

For the bulls.

Price is very close to invalidate this bullish labeling.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Textbook moves. :)


Seb

$AAPL APPLE Daily Update

Head and Shoulder technical Pattern has broken neckline.
Target for wave c is $600.

Seb

EUR/USD H4 Update

For the bulls.

Seb

EUR/USD Gann Fan

If we break that 1x1 thick  green line... next support is 1.2810

If we bounce once again... new high is comming...

Seb

GBP/USD H4 Update

Leading Diagonal completed.


Seb

AUD/USD H4, Daily Update

The recent impulsive wave down unfolded in five waves and hit the bottom right into Fibonacci Time Cluster arrea and bounced up. This bounce looks more like a corrective in nature so far, this is why there are some question marks.

Even on a Gann Fan chart we can see that there is quite strong support for the price. If we break it, next stop is way below parity.


Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

This chart is in favour of more downside progress as there are some clues that wave B has topped.

Seb

EUR/JPY H4 Update

The count of the chart is in favour of (a)(b)(c) correction as wave 4 develops.
Now in wave (c) impulsive to the downside.

Seb

Tungsten bars face high supply risk

Hat tip to Money Morning Australia for drawing my attention to the British Geological Survey's supply risk index in an article about graphite. I wasn't interesting in the graphite story - my eye was immediately drawn to the #2 ranking of tungsten in the table below.

With gold becoming increasingly popular, risk of supply problems with the key input to fake gold bars I'm sure is a top concern for fraudsters around the world (and New York in particular). Let us also not forget central bankers, who we can be sure are also concerned about any potential restriction on their ability to make fake 400oz bars to replace all the real gold that has been leased/sold.

 

Interestingly, the BGS note that "84% of the world's tungsten is currently sourced from China", with China also being the top reserve holder of tungsten as well. So not only is the US exposed to China holding all its debt, it is also at their mercy as to fake tungsten bar supply.

 

While I'm being silly, it seems appropriate to discuss the silver:gold ratio. This topic attracts a lot of stupidity along the lines of "the silver:gold ratio should be X because of Y and therefore silver is going to the moon". Often the "because of Y" uses some sort of supply metric or that some King thousands of years ago set the ratio at 10:1. Curiously, the so derived ratio is always lower than the current ratio.

 

One of the BGS' criteria for determining supply risk is Scarcity and they provide a handy table of each elements global scarcity. Silver is 0.055 parts per million while gold is 0.0013ppm. Hmm, that is a ratio of 42.3:1.

 

Anyway, this whole line of argument is shortsighted to start with as scarcity is not the only driver of price, as something can be really scarce but if no one wants it, it ain't worth anything - as Kid Dynamite covered in this post.

Think like a Giant

EUR/USD H4 Update

Invalidation line added.

FTC still valid.

Seb

EUR/USD H1 Update

Weekly pivots added.

Seb

EUR/JPY H4 Update

One more to the upside?

Non-Linear Regression Model on H4 time frame points out to the downside.

Seb

USD/CHF H4 Update

One more to the downside needed.


Seb