Open Forum

YOUR MARKET OPPONENT

Most traders are under the illusion that their greatest opponent in the market are the skilled pros out there who are waiting to gobble them up. While they are worthy opponents, there is an opponent even more worthy, if you go to the mirror, you will find them. The biggest enemy to trading successfully is YOU and your mindset.



The thing that usually demolishes traders besides getting into the game way too early (while they are still very, very green) is their lack of discipline and patience. The hardest thing in the market, especially if you are a natural Type A personality, is the waiting.



The natural type A makes the perfect forex victim, because we like to see things move and like to get things accomplished. While this is a very desirable trait in most other aspects of life, it can be to your determent in forex.







It is the incredible volatility and fast pace of forex that attracts us in the first place, but when the market is stagnant, it can make us nuts, often causing us to make premature ill-timed entries.



That is why it is essential to your long term success for you to perfect your WAIT!!!!!



What are you waiting???

For proper trade set-ups!



Trades in harmony with your trend will usually be the most profitable and give the most reliable signals.



LEARN YOUR CANDLESTICK PATTERNS!

LEARN YOUR TRENDS!!!

LEARN YOUR SUPPORT/RESISTANCE!!!!!

LEARN ABOUT MARKET RHYTHM!!!

LEARN MARKET PSYCHOLOGY!!!!!



AFTER LEARNING ALL OF THAT.



YOU MUST PERFECT THE ART OF WAITING !!!!!!!! (^_^)





YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)





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QUESTIONS AFTER THE HIT

When you take a hit, you have got to think your way through it logically.

Questions to ask yourself when you have taken a hit.

What is the lesson here???

What did I learn????

How can I avoid this next time????

What is my strategy the next time I encounter this situation????

Did I remember to pat myself on the back for the good trades this month?????

Did I remind myself that I have had many more successes this month??????

Did I remind myself that this is just an opportunity to do it better next time?????

Did I use proper discipline????????

Did I wait for a proper trade set-up??????

Did I follow my trading rules????????

How long am I going to wallow here???????

Did I remind myself that the market is very generous and will always give me plenty of opportunities for profit???????

Do I have more money now than I did at the beginning of the month????

If YES, you are ok.
You are out to win the war, though you may lose a few battles.
If you have gained 90 dollars for the month and you lose $8,
then you are ahead of the game by $82.

If the answer is NO and you are consistently taking hits,
then STOP and RETHINK your strategy, There is something WRONG!


No one can tell you how to trade; all they can do is share their experience and you will have to tweak it to fit your trading style. Thinking through your losses logically will give you the best advantage over reacting emotionally .

NEVER EVER USE A LOSS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BEAT YOURSELF UP. IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN AND INCREASE YOUR KNOWLEDGE

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)


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TRADING PREDICTABLE

There are times when the market is murky, cloudy and choppy, but there are the sweet times when the market is crystal clear like a cool refreshing spring. That is when you want to be in it. Many traders try to swim in all market waters. This is a big mistakes. Dirty waters are full of sharks.



IF YOU DON'T CLEARLY SEE AN ADVANTAGE; DO NOT TRADE!!!!!







IF YOU CAN NOT SEE A TRADE SET-UP, IT IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ONE.



You may wait a whole day for a market set-up, never to get one. That is when traders get antsy and agitated and begin creating trades from thin air. Mostly ending up on the wrong side of the trade. WHY gamble with your capital like that?????????? THAT IS DUMB.



When the market is lost, let it wander, but you stay out. It is hard, I know, as all of your emotions are screaming at you not to miss out. Miss out on what??????



What you are missing out on is the set-up for the BIG KILL. SOMETIMES THERE IS NO TRADE and if you are wise, you except that and go find some other way to occupy your time. If you are no a pro, don't play the out-smart-the-market game, it will make road kill out of you fast. You may get away with it a time or two, but you can be sure that eventually it will catch up with you, because market strategies don't stay the same. It only takes that one 200-400 pip shake out day to change your world for the worst.



Trade when your trades are more predictable than not. Trade when the waters are cool, refreshing and crystal clear. Trade when the market is sending you a VERY CLEAR invitaion to jump in. If the water is murky, you can believe there are sharks. SWIM AT YOUR OWN RISK !!!!



YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)



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Greece is the Word

TRADING EMOTIONS

The hardest thing to master as a trader once you understand Market Rhythm is not the market, it is YOU. Emotional trading will break you fast.



Trading is not hard, it is mastering your emotions that is. Trading will teach you more about your human short coming than visiting a psychiatrist. As a trader, you must learn the discipline of waiting for proper market set-ups. That is hard!



Your EMOTIONS are screaming for you to jump in or you will miss out. NOT TRUE!! If you miss one trade set-up, the market is generous and will give you another. Learn to trade in harmony with your trend and with proper signals.







The emotions that are deadly to your trading success.



REVENGE, we all know it and have done it. It happens when you are tricked by the market and decide to take another trade before looking at the big picture, then BAM you are on the wrong side of the trade again. Pissed off and refusing to move while your money is going further down the drain. Scared to let go for fear that you are going to get tricked again.



PANIC, that is when you lack the confidence to enter or ride a profitable trade. This happens when you have taken some hits and now you lack the confidence to trade profitably.



IMPATIENCE, this happens when you can't wait for a proper trade set-up and jump on a price hiccup/retracement, often finding yourself on the wrong side of the trade.



ANGER, you know that feeling that comes over you when you have taken a hit or two and you want to kill your computer.



SELF PITY, when you come to the market hoping for crumbs and get none, and can't see why THEY won't let you have just a little bit.



DEPRESSION, something perhaps outside of the market has you at an extreme low point.



INDIFFERENCE, it happens when you have gotten hit so many times that you just don't care any more because no matter what you can't win any way.



All of these emotions work hard against you clouding your clarity and give other traders the advantage over you.



If you are experiencing any of these emotions when you enter your platform; abandon your trading until you have yourself under control and have the clarity of mind to trade. Not doing so greatly increases your chances of handing your money over to a trader who is more emotionally fit and controlled than you are.



We are all human and it happens to us all, but what weighs heavy in your mind will often weigh heavily in your pocket.



Come to your trading platform, well rested, focused and ready to trade. You may take an occasional hit; SO WHAT it is a LESSON. We all get them and if we learn the lesson that the loss has taught us; it will make us much better traders.



DO NOT TRADE YOUR EMOTIONS!!!!!----



TRADE WHAT YOU SEE ON YOUR CHART!!!!





YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)





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CAN YOU BEAT THE SYSTEM ??

Can you beat the system ??

NO!, but you can still make great money. There is no humanly way that you can beat the system, but you can make a very comfortable and profitable living from forex. Forex has a language of it's own and in order to have a glimpse of success, you have got to learn the language. The better you master and translate the language, the more successful you become.

What is this strange language????

It is the language of the charts. It doesn't matter whether you interpret candlesticks or bars ( I have a strong preference for candles), you must learn to properly interpret this secret chart language of price action. Your charts are the only indicator that is telling you the real right now truth.

The only disadvantage to the charts that you see is that you can not see what is going on behind the scenes; but many times if you are properly interpreting your charts, you will glean clues about the possible direction of the market.

Even with the knowledge of this secret mysterious chart language of price action, you can still get tricked. It happens.

Why ?????

Because the house always has and will keep the advantage. You can only hope that your interpretation of the language of the charts will be profitable for you most of the times. If you are properly interpreting this language most of the time, you will do very, very well as long as you don't allow your losses to run forever.

Even after some traders become fluent in this price action language, they allow their losses to run and cut their profits short. THIS IS BACKWARDS and WRONG. The profits are suppose to run and the losers are suppose to be cut short. As traders, we all know if we had cut that trade short when we saw the market turn against us, we would have come out with a small loss as opposed to the crippling monster we ended up with. Don't allow your losses to run free. It is up to you when you are comfortable cutting them, but don't allow them to take over.

LEARN YOUR CHART LANGUAGE!

Going to your local library and picking up Steve Nison's book is a great place to start.

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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SUPPORT BOUNCE

Price will only fall so far before you get a bounce off of or near a support. Price WILL NOT fall indefinitely. Be extra careful when price makes a new low because one or two things are going to happen, it will either keep falling or it will bounce. More than likely, it will make a make a strong bounce.

Why????? because all of the sellers have gotten on board to sell. When there are no more sellers, the only logical thing to happen is for the buyers to come in and buy in force, creating a strong upwards bounce, trapping the sellers at the bottom.



Price falls strongly as long as there are sellers, but when the sellers are all gone BAM!!!!!! you have an upward explosion with nothing to slow the force of the powerful move upward. Now many of the traders trapped at the bottom are also forced to sell, creating more momentum for the upward move and prices continue to rise.

When you make an all new low and you get sideways action. Wait it out until you are sure you know where price is headed. If you get trapped, free yourself as soon as you can even if it means taking a small loss. It is better to be upset that you missed out on a great trade than to find yourself trapped in a trade that you wish you hadn't taken.

REMEMBER SUPPORT = BOUNCE, until price shows you differently. No matter what, wait for proper reversal/continuation signals near support before you enter the trade and please wait for your candle to close before making your trading decision. Those few pips that you think you will gain by beating out your competition are NOT WORTH IT.
All of the pros know to wait for an advantageous set-up and so should you (^_^)

YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)



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Perth Mint to acquire full ownership of AGR Matthey

Last week the three partners in AGR Matthey decided to dissolve their partnership. The Perth Mint will acquire full ownership of the gold and silver refining business in Perth and Johnson Matthey will acquire full ownership of the platinum and silver brazing alloys business in Melbourne. Newmont will exit from these businesses entirely but will continue to have its Australian-mined gold refined at the Perth refinery. There are still some conditions precedent that need to be met before the deal is concluded, but the partners see no reason why these will not occur.

It is a move I am very excited about as it gives the Mint direct control over the refinery’s output, which is typically between 300 to 400 tonnes of gold a year. I’m reminded of the old adage, "He who owns the gold, makes the rules", but of course the Mint doesn’t own the gold, its clients do.

The substantial physical inventories needed to support this throughput, and the Mint’s own stock, have been backing Depository client metal for many years. All this acquisition will do is change the refinery’s inventory from being listed as a metal receivable in the Mint’s financials to being a directly owned asset. This should increase the comfort factor for many Depository clients even though it doesn’t really change the fact that their holdings have been, and always will be, backed by physical.

I will be interested to see how the Mint’s critics and competitors try to spin this news against us. It does make it hard to argue that a business that refines 300 tonnes of gold a year “doesn’t have any gold”.

Maybe they’ll argue that we had to get the refinery to plug the imagined short position that they think we have. Apart from exposing their woeful ignorance of how our operations and a refinery’s work, the logical conclusion of such a position would be that the supposed short position is now plugged, making the Depository a totally safe facility!

For those not aware, the AGR refinery operations were originally established by the Perth Mint in 1899 when it was founded as the Perth branch of the British Royal Mint. In 1998 the refinery was combined with the refinery operations of Golden West to form the AGR Joint Venture and then subsequently merged with Johnson Matthey’s Melbourne refinery in 2002. So in a way the refinery business is just coming back to its home.

TRICK CANDLES

There are two very tricky candles that I must warn you about. Both are part of the umbrella group. The first is the shooting star. The shooting star comes at the top on an uptrend and has a shadow twice the size of the real body. The thing about the shooting star is that it opens near the bottom of the candle goes up to create the illustration of a strong bullish candle, quickly turns on you, and closes near it's open. It can be bullish or bearish, but a bearish shooting star is stronger and more likely to create a reversal than a bullish shooting star.

A shooting star happens when the bulls are running strong with the ball , and it looks like they are going to score when the bears come in and slam them at the last minute. Many times the bears take over then run the ball the other way.  Sometimes there is a fight and there is a sideways standoff for a while.
The hammer is the other trick candle that you want to be aware of. A hammer come at the end of a downtrend and will mislead you with the idea that it is going to continue in a bearish fashion before price turns traitor on you. It is called a hammer because it looks like a hammer. A hammer opens near the top of the candle, falls strong before reversing on you, creating a lower shadow that is twice the size of it's real body . When you see a hammer form, it is a sign that you need to protect your profits.

The thing that is detrimental about the shooting star/hammer is that if you enter either before it closes, you will more than likely find yourself on the far end of the WRONG SIDE of the trade. If you are using candles as trading flagships, always let them close before you jump into a trade. Impatience in the face of either of these candles will break you fast.



YOU CAN DO THIS (^_^)

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Living in a Powder Keg and Giving Off Sparks

PRACTICE, DRILL AND REHEARSE, CREATING GREATNESS

If you have been with me for a while, you have heard me preach PRACTICE, DRILL, REHEARSE! Guys you are entering into the toughest, trickiest market in the world, and you can not jump in and expect to make a killing. Every superstar, every winning athlete, when you don't see them, are PRACTICING, DRILLING AND REHEARSING the perfection of their art. If you want to do this for a living. You have got to PRACTICE, DRILL AND REHEARSE on a demo account !!.



You are going to get bruised, so what, every great athlete or performer does, and yes you are going to get your feelings hurt from time to time. Falling down does not create greatness, getting up does, no matter how many times it takes.

There are two ways to learn this market. The hard way like most of us, or find a good mentor that is willing to tell you the truth about what is going on here. If you are really struggling with your trading, STOP NOW !!!!! and get a demo account until you perfect some things. If you are still losing on your demo regularly, then you are not ready for a live account.



YOU CAN DO THIS, but you must discipline yourself enough to develop winning strategies. There are no perfect strategies, you are just looking for some that will put you on the right side of the trade most of the time.

Will you take a hit? Sure. So what, there are still plenty of opportunities for profit. If you are going to shine like a star in Forex, you must PRACTICE, DRILL AND REHEARSE on your demo account. I know you don't want to do it because you'd rather be making money. The thing that gives champions an advantage over the rest, is what they are willing to invest in their art. Super champions, musicians, actors, and all achievers have one thing in common and that is their willingness to go the distance to become great.

When ever you begin to trade live again; start off small, building both your account balance and your confidence. Over trading no matter who you are can kill you fast, the market is to unpredictable to gamble your families hard earned cash. Forex is like any other profession, it is a get rich slow game. Ok (^_^), you can do it here much faster than other places, but you must start off slow and light, and always keep learning. Yes FOREX TRADING IS EASY, it is the game that can be hard. It is a winner take all sport

Winning Trading to you dear Friend (^_^).

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Gold: The Ultimate Hedge Fund

THE INVISIBLE SIDE OF FOREX

THE FOREX MINDSET

There is nothing more important in forex than your mindset. It is the invisible magic that makes forex success possible. Most of us as Traders have been killed by the market, some of us over and over again.....lol. That was me (^_^).

The hardest thing to overcome when you have gone broke in forex is that broke mentality. That fear ghost from your past that holds you captive every time you are about to enter a trade. When the ghost has arrested you, his friends come to taunt you with horrible memories of what happened the last time. When price bounces and retraces, then a ghost jumps out of the closet and scares you to death. If you are still in the trade after all of that, then the doubt monster pays you a visit. Constantly talking to you, so you often end up abandoning a good trade. It is all a mind game designed to throw you. Price bounces and retracements happen to give the doubt monster time to play on your psyche.

The truth is price is going to go up and price is going to go down. If price has made a new low or high. Look to protect your profits, with proper confirmation. IT IS NOT THE TIME TO ENTER !!!! That is the time the market is most likely to make a hard bounce or retracement. Now you may enter as long as your candles confirm your move, but please wait for the candle to close before making your decision to jump in.

The market will lead traders like sheep to the slaughter, that is why if price is is running one way strong, (unless you have just come off of a bounce or retracement) you may want to wait. If you chose to jump in, you may only want to do so briefly. The most likely time for a strong turn in the market is when traders are all piled up on one side of the seesaw and the elephant comes and jumps on the other side and throws all of the traders off. In other words you are most likely to get trapped at new highs or new lows.



WHAT CAN YOU DO?????

Education - Education is the second most important factor to being successful in the forex market.

Your broker, I am sorry to say will give you enough information to get you killed. They only give you incomplete information which is the noose at the end of a short rope, then they let you lose and you hang yourself, and they collect big on your families hard earned money. You dust off, study harder, and go running off again, sure that you have learned your lessons from the past. Then it happens again, and you find yourself in this cycle of small success and big failure. It takes it's toll. It challenges everything you are, especially if you thought you were smart before entering this arena.

FOREX IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL MINEFIELD!!!!!!!!!! It is designed to mentally paralyze you until they have drained all of your resources from you.

Trading is not logical, in fact it goes against logic and wisdom. It is a trapping game run by professional trappers. The market never makes common sense to your mind or emotions, which keeps you thrown off. Wait until you can clearly see an opportunity where you truly have the odds in your favor and it happens less often than not. This is physiological warfare, a total minefield(mind game) in which you have to have nerves of steel and the ability to outwit those who make their living trying to cheat you.

THE REAL TRUTH IS THAT TRADING IS EASY, but of course they can't tell you that because then you would make too much money and they would never fatten themselves off of your blood, sweat and tears. They start you off with the most complicated stuff to deceive you into thinking that this is something close to physics or rocket science. That is the first mind trap, now you have convinced yourself that this is really hard because of the intense study and focus that you are giving to it. Even after all of that study (often times of the wrong material), you are still getting killed, so now you are convinced that it is rocket science.

You do need to educate yourself, but what you need is education in the things that are really going to make you a success at Forex.

The truth is Forex is simple. Now what is going to be hard is freeing your mind from those mental ghost that haunt you. What you may want to do to begin this process is to write down your fears and why you feel that way; then you are going to have to begin giving yourself a new message like "I am not that same scared trader who didn't know what she/he was doing, I am now a competent successful trader who understands what is going on in the market". You will have to do that fairly often in the beginning, but you stand and fight those ghost when they come to pester you and eventually they will go pester another trader.

THE BIGGEST THING TO BEING A SUCCESS AT FOREX IS BELIEF!!! THEN YOU HAVE TO ADD THE EDUCATION. NOT THE JUNK YOUR BROKER GIVES TO YOU, BUT THE GOOD STUFF FROM TRADERS WHO ARE MAKING IT HAPPEN.

I have no super forex secrets; I trade what I see, that is it. I only use candlesticks, trendlines, support and resistance. I do think that much of my past study aids in my trading. Learn the basics first, then add any other oscillator/indicator that you want. They go hand and hand, but you must understand how to use them properly. If you master the basics first, (candlesticks, trend, and support and resistance) then the other will make much more sense.

While you are fighting these ghost, it is wise to use your practice account until you perfect your strategy. Please go to your local library and pick up Steve Nison's book on Japanese Candlestick trading. I think it is a basic essential for successful trading. Once you have mastered your candlesticks and your candlestick patterns, then learn the other stuff. Also your practice account will help you learn and understand market rhythm. Every hour, every day, every week, every month...etc., price is going to go up and down, the trick is getting on the right side of the trade. Trading with the major trend with proper confirmation will give you the very best chance at success.

TRADING IS NOT HARD, but first YOU MUST BELIEVE that YOU CAN! Then with proper education, you must wait for the best time to enter a trade, that part will come with practice. The third biggest secret to successful trading is waiting. You can be a consistently profitable trader if you learn the art of waiting. Wait for proper trade set up. Be careful of new highs and new lows

Thank you my Friends (^_^)




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WAIT FOR PROPER CONFIRMATION SIGNALS

The biggest challenge to being a successful trader is waiting for proper confirmation signals before entering a trade. Many traders play the guessing game with the market even when they understand that they should buy low and sell high. In a bull market when they think price has gone up far enough, they sell and when they feel it has gone low enough, they buy to get a jump on the market, for what they are hoping is a big pay check. This kind of thinking is often Market Suicide, and will get you killed.

Price in a trend is like a locomotive freight train, it will run you over and never even feel you. You have got to wait until the breaks are applied and the train does a u-turn before trying to sell tops or buy bottoms. YOU CAN NOT GET A JUMP ON THE MARKET unless you are psychic. The market has successfully tricked traders for hundreds of years and is very efficient at it.

YOU CAN NEVER OUT GUESS THE MARKET !!!!! You can only follow where it leads, hoping it doesn't turn on you like a mad dog.

Sometimes you will wait for a proper set-up and still get stopped out, but waiting for a proper set-up is going to give you the greatest chance for success and put the odds the most in your favor.

There is no perfect strategy, but you are looking for one that will put you on the right side of the trade most of the time. Remember everyday your market is different, so develop a strategy for every kind of trading market. (The bullish, the bearish, consolidation and choppy). As a trader you will take an occasional hit, but it is the end of the month profit that you are looking to, not the end of the day profit. It is ok to lose a battle every now and then as long as you win the war.

The most simple trading strategy is to follow the current trend until your candlesticks tell you differently. A good trader spends much more time waiting than trading. LEARN THE PSYCHOLOGY OF YOUR CANDLES AND YOUR CANDLESTICK PATTERNS !!!!!!!!

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Government incentives to inflate debt away

Two interesting quotes caught my eye in a recent Andy Smith note:

"We cannot stop terrorism or defeat the ideologies of violent extremism when hundreds of millions of young people see a future with no jobs, no hope, and no way ever to catch up to the developed world" Hillary Clinton, Remarks to the Center for Global Development at the Peterson Institute for International Economics

For a moment there I thought she was talking about the US - "when millions of young Americans see a future with no jobs, no hope, and no way ever to catch up to the Baby Boomers". Generational class warfare anyone?

"could seriously disrupt bond markets if it triggered concerns about creditworthiness or inflation because of concerns with government incentives to inflate debt away" Bank for International Settlements in invitation to top central bankers and financiers for a meeting in Basel

This doesn't need any further comment for readers of this blog, suffice to say I find it interesting that the BIS acknowledges that inflating debt away is an option.

PS - unfortunately Andy Smith's stuff is not publically released, because I rank him as the top precious metals analyst.

I can feel it coming...

Forex Trading Strategy: Steps Everywhere

If you go back and check your chart on different time frames, you will find a wonderful treasure in plain sight. It is a low risk, easy to trade short term setup. The setups that I am referring to are your bullish and bearish steps. They are easy to spot as they resemble the steps you climb and descend on a daily basis.



The bullish steps:Your bullish steps are steps in which each candle is higher up than the preceding candle. When you notice the beginning of steps building, you want to look for your entry opportunity. In a set of bullish steps, price will drop below the high and often below the close (and sometimes close to the open) of the previous candle before continuing upward. First note the high and the close of the previous candle. When you note that price has fallen below the high, allow it to fall until you get a valid reversal confirmation in your candlesticks, going in the direction of your bullish steps. If you are trading a time frame that will allow you to do it, go to a smaller time frame and look for a valid reversal signal in harmony with that trend for an entry,  so that you can have a tighter stop loss.

The bearish steps:

Your bearish steps are steps in which each candle is lower than the preceding candle. In your bearish steps price will climb above the previous day's low and often time the close or even close to the open before resuming it's bearish pursuit. Allow price to trade above the low, then switch to a smaller time frame and begin to look for your entry point on your candlestick reversal in the direction of the bearish steps. Your stop loss should be placed the number of pips that you are comfortable with above the candlestick reversal pattern.

Please note that this is a short term strategy as your steps will eventually disappear, but they are a relatively profitable trade set up while they are in force.

WARNING: DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE IN THE DIRECTION OF THE STAIRS UNTIL YOU GET A VALID REVERSAL PATTERN!!!!!!



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You can trade profitably my FRIEND!
(^_^)

This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.

Happy New Year!

Gold: The Ultimate Wealth Reserve

Know your customer

Interesting experience by Market Skeptics with GoldMoney. Leaving aside the way it was handled or the time taken, but it does not surprise me with what happened.

The ability to transfer balances between GoldMoney accounts means that operation really is more akin to a bank than a custodian. As a result I can see that they are more diligent about knowing their customer and what the account will be used for, otherwise they could get shut down by regulators. Just see what happened to e-gold and the changes they have had to make in this DGC Magazine article.

The money laundering/terrorism rules these days puts the onus on the business to know their customer, make assessments about the potential for their customers to be engaging in illegal activities and if the risk is considered high, either declining the account, reporting it, or seeking further information from the customer to establish whether their use of the account appears legitimate.

There would be no doubt that GoldMoney would not want to go through the e-gold experience, hence the rigorous due diligence. This tells me they are serious about becoming a real "gold bank", which is something true gold money advocates would have to support. Yes, this means they become part of the regulatory "system" and will thus not appeal to those buying gold for privacy reasons, but I think GoldMoney's objectives are to target the wider market and it will be interesting to see how this develops.

Merry Christmas

Fat Prophets

Fat Prophets have been gold bulls for a long time and I give them kudos for that. However, in a recent article The Silent Gold Rush Is On they make the following faulty analysis:

The Australian newspaper reported over the weekend that the Perth Mint is not taking any more orders for gold until January. Our guess is that the Mint does not want to expose itself to higher future prices given that it does not have the inventory to meet the demand for bullion.

I sent the response below to them a couple of weeks ago, no response as yet:

Your guess that we do not want to be exposed to higher future prices is incorrect and is based on a misunderstanding of how the gold markets work. If we take an order and fix a metal price (it is also possible to take an order and agree to fix a price at the time the bullion is ready for delivery) then we immediately buy the raw gold that will be used to make the bars/coins for the client. There is therefore never any exposure the future prices. I discuss this is more detail in my blog on the value chain.

I really wish commentators would just call us up and ask us questions, rather than just guessing or making stuff up.

Open Forum

30 MINUTE MASTER STRATEGY

This great strategy is provided by Peterfibonacci:

Here is my strategy.

On a GBP/USD and EUR/USD M30 time frame:

Indicators:

8 EMA applied to Open
5 EMA applied to Close
Fibonnaci pivots to show the resistance and the supports.
Signal Line period of 45
2MA Crossover signal Indicator (to alert when a cross over has happened)

RSI 14
Stochastics (10,3,3)
MACD (5,15,9)

Long Entry:
Enter immediately when the MACD, Stochastics, RSI show a long position and the 5MA has crossed over the 8MA from below.

Place the stop loss a few points below the recent low with a take profit of 70 pips and a trailing stop of 30 pips.


Short Entry:
Enter immediately when the MACD, Stochastics, RSI show a short position and the 5MA has crossed over the 8MA from above.

Place the stop loss a few points above recent high with a take profit of 50 pips and a trailing stop of 30 pips.

This strategy seems to work best in a horizontal market. Sometimes one has to work with the resistance and support points to determine the proper Take Profit level, because it's not always 50 pips.

This strategy also works well with the H1 time frame. I personally like the H1 because the candlestick patterns are move evident and sometimes one can see entry and exit points before the alert(which is the EMA cross)!

Above and below a chart has been provided for your study, so that you can obtain a better grasp of this strategy. If you left click your mouse on the chart, you will have the options at the very top of that menu that says 'view image'. If you click 'view image', it will provide you with a larger, better view of the chart.

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Have an awesome trading week! Thanks!

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AWOL

Yes I am still alive. My break from blogging started with a trip to Canberra for the http://www.goldstandardinstitute.com/ conference. It was great to catch up with the attendees from last year and meet some new gold investors. The weekend after it was a short drive up to the Southern Highlands of New South Wales for the Highland Fling - a 100km mountain bike race. Six plus hours is physically tough, but it was harder mentally.

The plan was to get back to blogging on my return but the new Treasury system project I've been working on (in addition to the revamp of the Perth Mint's retail shop) kicked in with at lot of work required to meet deadlines. The new system will give us some efficiencies and thus help with customer service but we have decided to NOT go online for trading.

It is a bit old school, but the Treasury system will be standalone from our other computer systems and with no online ability means your account is just not hackable. I'm interested in any feedback on that decision - we feel if you want the ease of online then you can trade our ASX product (code ZAUWBA) or GoldMoney or BullionVault.

This Treasury system is going to take up some time so my blogging will be less frequent over the next few months but I'll keep any eye on any big issues that come up.

NO MAN'S LAND. GUEST POST

The No Man's Land Strategy is actually a very simple strategy.

It is based on Multiple Time Frames, Moving Averages (5 - 22 - 42) , and Pivot Points (for Support and Resistance), and I only run it on GBP.

The signal is generated from H4 Candle. I take the previous High + 10 pips ( you may use any number you like) + spread as a Buy Stop Order, while for the Sell Stop Order is previous Low - 10 pips.

Suppose I have a target 20 pips from my Buy Stop or Sell Stop Order. I then look to see whether there are some Support/Resistance or MA or Trendline Support/Resistance ahead to act as a barrier to the move I want to make. If there is, then I use the next S/R or MA or trendline S/R as a new point of calculation for my Buy Stop or Sell Stop Order. I repeat this step on the H4, H1, M30, M15 and M5.

Here is an example :
Prev High of H4 : 1.6300
Prev Low of H4 : 1.6250
Spread : 3 pips

Buy Stop order : 1.6300 + 10 + 3 = 1.6313 --> TP 20 pips = 1.6333
Sell Stop order : 1.6250 - 10 = 1.6240 --> TP 20 pips = 1.6220

I check my H4 Chart, to see if there is any resistance from 1.6313 to 1.6333, if not, then I go to my H1.
I continue repeating the above step. Suppose I find Resistance on 1.6320. I then recalculate making 1.6320 the new basis for calculating my Buy Stop Order.
So my new calculation is : 1.6320 + 10 + 3 = 1.6333 ---> TP 20 pips = 1.6353.
Then I recheck to see if there is any resistance that might prevent me from reaching my new target.

I do this until I get to M5.

This is why I called this strategy : No Man's Land.
Pivot's, S/R, MA, Trendline's S/R are things that I consider landowners.

For example:
There is Pivot Resistance at 1.6250 and Trendline's R on 1.6265. This 15 pips distance I consider as "Pivot's Land and Trendline's Land."
I don't want to fight either Land's owner, so I avoid them. I prefer to trade on "No Man's Land" where, there is no land owner who will be angry if I steal a few pips from the market.

I do the exact opposite for my Sell Stop Order. For the trendline I use the DeMark Indicator found at the Forex Factory.

The idea behind this strategy is to make a high percentage of winning trades. It works very nicely at the London open, around 6-7 GMT, depending on H4 cycle from the broker's chart we use to analyze. ( I like to use the ALPARI-UK, as I trade the London open).

I usually look to gain 20 pips; but if I am constantly profitable with this strategy, I think I can be one of the few winner in the forex market. The BIG BOSS who drives the market, that come from the big financial institutions and old-fashioned people who use just candlestick pattern and support-resistance as their trading guide; I am trying not to fight them, but to align myself with them.

Thanks Eko and Aan

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Gold: The Ultimate Un-Bubble

STOP LOSSES ARE YOUR FRIENDS

Many traders fear placing stop losses because they are afraid that they will get stopped out. This is the wrong mindset. A stop loss is a friend that helps you preserve your capital when you are on the wrong side of the trade.

A stop loss is simply what it says, it is a system that you put in place to stop the loss of your capital, just in case the trade goes against you strongly. Don't place stop losses with the idea that you are going to get stopped out, but place it with the idea that you are protected if a trade does something differently than you expect. It will give you the opportunity, if it is hit to step back and position yourself for a more profitable trade set-up and entry.

What happens when you ride a losing trade to long. It depresses your emotions. It keeps you locked in a losing mentality. It takes up margin that you can be using on a better more profitable trade. A stop loss gives you the freedom to move on, and be free from all of the negative things that comes from seeing that losing trade over and over.

Even if you have the capital to ride out a losing trade for months, then whenever you see a more profitable trade set-up in that same currency pair, you are not free to take advantage of that new opportunity because you are stuck in a losing trade waiting for it to turn back in your favor......one day 8^( .

Let's go back and look at that trade from day one. What if you had taken that hit the first day with a 60pip loss. That is quite a hit. You could have simply made 10 pips a day for the next 7 trading days, and you'd be a head 10pips. What that would have done is free up your capital as well as your mindset. There is an extra confidence that comes when you go to your platform with no losing trades staring you in the face. It is a feeling of power.

Instead you decided to hold that trade 7 trading days. Now you are in the hole 150 pips, plus you paid 7 days of rollover fees, but things have begin to turn in your favor like you knew they would. That is 7 days that you have locked yourself out of more profitable trades in that currency pair, and who knows when you are going to break even on that pair.

When you have losing trades on your platform, then you are fearful of taking other good trades that you see, because of your margin level, the new trade may go against you and wipe you out, or any number of negative messages that we hear in our heads when we are in losing trades.

Dearest traders stop losses are your Friends. Here is a video that can help you decide how you may want to place your stop losses.

Placing Stops, Traders Whiteboard #4 Click Here

I am certainly not encouraging you to take unnecessary losses, if you are in a situation where you are in harmony with your trend and you have a little retracement that has gone against you temporarily, by all means allow that trade to close profitable.

Just don't allow losses to run on and on and on and on, because it's like spiderwebs in the mind and pretty soon, they cloud your vision and your judgment until you are paralyzed and can not do anything until that position comes back into profit. It is better to be out of a good trade wishing that you were in, than to be held hostage in a bad trade that you wish you were out of. Lastly letting trades go to far against you is just breeding grounds for stress and anxiety.

Remember strong dips and rally punish traders who don't have proper stop losses in place.

Trade well, Live Well, Laugh a lot and have Loads of Fun (^_^)


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This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.

Green Shoot Alert --> Nov. Unemployment Down!

Metamorphosis

4 KINDS OF MARKETS

There are 4 kinds of markets in Forex. You have a range bound market. A bull market. A bear market and a choppy market.

Your range bound market is a market that trades between a set support and resistance.

A bull market (which can also be range bound within a trend channel) is a market that is moving toward higher prices.

A bear market (which can also be confined to a diagonal channel) is a market that is moving toward lower prices or value.

A choppy market is an incoherent market that has no particular direction and is too haphazard to follow.

HOW TO TRADE THESE MARKETS

The best way to trade a range bound market is to buy at support with proper confirmation signals, and to sell at resistance with proper confirmation signals.

The best what to trade a bullish market is to buy pull backs (when price take a dip, or goes lower for a while before continuing to move upward).
The best way to trade a bearish market is to sell peaks (When price goes up for a while before moving downward again).
Stay away from choppy market, they have no direction and make no sense, if you chose to trade in this kind of a market. Trade on a shorter term time frame off of proper signals. Long term trading in this type of market can wipe you out fast, because it has not established a real direction yet.



Have a super trading week.

LIVE WELL, LOVE HARD AND HAVE FUN!
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This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Gold is Wealth

New NFA Regulation

What do the new NFA Regulations mean for you?

For those of you who have not fully grasp what it means for you, it means that you will have to have more money to hold the same size positions that you have been holding.

If you have an open position with a 200:1 margin, that requires $500.00 to keep the position opened; when the new rule goes into effect, that same position will require you to have $1,000 to keep it opened.

If you don't have the required margin, your position will be liquidated by your broker, unless they have told you otherwise.

PLEASE CHECK all of your open positions to be sure that you are not in danger of being liquidated. If you are unsure, please call your broker to be sure that your open positions are going to stay safe. Thank you

Open Forum

WHAT MAKES A MARKET WIZARD???

How much do you think you could learn if you had a chance to sit down with over 15 of the most successful day, value, and long term investors of all time? Do you think you’d finally get that one piece of advice that takes your trading from OK to extraordinary? Today you have the chance to pick the brain of one man who has sat down with experts and got your top questions answered.

The key ingredient with ‘super-traders’ isn’t as complicated as you think, as most of them share the same traits and behavioral patterns, but it’s how they put them to work in the markets that sets them apart.

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Trade well, Live well (^_^)

Taking a loss

This is a really important subject that I need to deal with because taking a loss paralyzes most traders and keep them for potential future profits.

Many traders equate losing a trade with being a loser, allowing that loss to paralyze them and cripple their judgment. This is the wrong attitude toward a loss.

A loss is only a lesson that you have paid for, learn from it. You pay for college and you pay for seminars, and you never beat yourself up for paying to increase your knowledge in those arenas. My Friend a loss is simply an opportunity that you have paid for to increase your knowledge.





When you pay thousands for college or a seminar, you never say, how could I have been so stupid, why did I do that. The truth is, a loss is just an opportunity to learn. STOP BEATING YOURSELF UP FOR WHAT IS ONLY A NATURAL PART OF TRADING. That attitude only puts you at a huge disadvantage to other traders.

The successful trader understands that the market is very generous and will give him/her plenty of opportunities for a profit.

One day, this is before I learned better, I lost about half of my account balance. I simply waited until price hit the lower trend line and went long. It only gave me the opportunity to recover a little more than half of what I loss, before continuing downward, but it was more than I would have gotten had I done nothing.

There are no absolutes in trading. Trading is more of an art of interpretation. Too many traders see losses as a flaw with themselves instead of seeing a loss for what it really is. A LOSS IS ONLY A LESSON TO HELP YOU TRADE MORE EFFICIENTLY. A LOSS GIVES YOU THE CHANCE TO IMPROVE AND PERFECT YOUR STRATEGY, IT SIMPLY TEACHES YOU WHAT DOESN'T WORK, SO THAT YOU CAN DISCOVER WHAT DOES WORK.

You can have a perfect analysis and still enter a losing trade, because the market sentiment can change, like with an engulfing pattern. It happens and it is OK.

When we set up a trade we have expectations of how that trade is going to play out. A loss is a great disappointment to that picture and a bruise to the ego. We have more trouble letting go of the dream of our glorious ideal trade, than we do taking the loss. The money is gone and it is over, but we still hang on, allowing that one hit to ruin our day and sometimes our week.

A loss allows you to build a new more profitable trading dream for yourself. LET GO of that old dream that no longer fits you and climb into a new successful dream that is more becoming of you.

STOP !!! LETTING LOSSES BE A REFLECTION OF WHO YOU ARE ! It is just part of the game. Learn it's lesson and move on.

A LOSS IS A LESSON (^_^). YOU PAID FOR IT. IT HAS SO MUCH WISDOM TO TEACH YOU, IF YOU'D ONLY LISTEN. THIS IS ONLY ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY TO PERFECT YOUR STRATEGY

Learn from your losses so that you can move on more quickly to capture more profitable trades.

TRADE WELL (^_^)

Traders Whiteboard #4 Click Here

This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.

Is the Dollar "Good as Tungsten"?

Gold Urinals or Smokes?

New Open Forum

CONFIDENCE !

Confidence, is a key ingredient in successful trading.

What do you need confidence in????? You need confident in your ability, and you need confidence in your strategy.

But I have gotten it wrong so much.

So what I went broke, it is ok. You can do this!!!! (^_^)

How do I start to rebuild??????

You start by taking a deep breathe, taking a break and investing in more education.

I have already gotten education till my head is going to fall off, and I still can't get it right. I JUST WANT TO QUIT!

That is exactly why you need to take a break, if you quit now, you will miss out on how good it feels to win.

Let me explain something, the market will give you plenty of opportunities to make profit. Every trader has losing trades. The successful traders have more winning trades. You just have to learn to take trades that are going to put the odds in your favor. You only have to win most of the times. If you lose, the market is generous and will give you another chance to try again

Trust me, you can do this. Part of your biggest challenge is overcoming the feeling of hopelessness that comes from the idea that you have failed.

YOU HAVE NOT FAILED, you didn't meet your goal, but it is ok. You just discovered how not to do things, and now you are ready to learn a better way (SMILE). I know it is hard now, but if you hang in here with me, I assure you that it will be ok.

Do you still have money in your account?

Yes, but it is just a little.......

Great, leave it alone. I want you to open up a demo or practice account, and practice on it.

I already did that 2 months before I opened my real account.

I went broke two times and almost three, so trust me here. Even though I am very profitable now, I still open a practice account to practice new strategies.

I want you to go to your library and pick up Steve Nison's books:
Beyond Candlesticks and/or Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques.
Either book is a good place to start.

If you can't find it yet, go to my youtube channel and look at my favorites. I have uploaded lessons there on candlestick trading, it is a good place to start, but the books are better.

http://www.youtube.com/user/TRADERSFRIEND

Do you have an understanding of a lot of your indicators?

I understand them pretty well. I know you don't really use them, do I need to stop using them?

No, they are important for giving you an idea where price might go. Just don't over do it.

I want you to start where most traders should start and that is with the basics, it is so critical for traders to understand where price might reverse on them.

Yes, I can see now that is how I ended up with losing trades, because I would start out good many times and ended up losing and it would make me madder than hell.

We don't want you to be madder than hell, we want you to win at this game. Forex is a zero sum game, it has no mercy, winner take all. YOU CAN BE THAT WINNER!

Once you learn your patterns and understand more of the market psychology, then I want you to practice only on your demo account until you build your confidence back. Forex is like Poker, in that, it is a game where the ones with the confidence will go home with the pot!!!!!!!

I also want you to remind yourself often that you are not that same losing trader, and that you have grown. You have got to tell yourself that or those ghost (of your losing days) in your head will scare you to death. Those past fears will keep you out of good profitable trades which you end up kicking yourself for later.

Listen to me. YOU CAN GO LONG, YOU CAN GO SHORT!!! YOU ARE NOT JUST A BULL OR A BEAR, YOU ARE A CHAMELEON AND CAN CHANGE WHEN THE MARKET CHANGES!

YOU ARE NOT THAT SAME TRADER. YOU ARE BETTER AND MORE INFORMED. YOU CAN DO THIS!!!!!!!

Once you understand your reversal patterns, then you can combine them with what you already know. The practice on your demo account will only lend to your confidence.

When you are ready, you can start back on your real account; but make small short trades. Since you don't have much money left, trade mini if you can.

I only have a mini account.

Great, then we are in business!

Take small trades on reversal signals, but only in the direction of your trend. This will help your confidence, and help you realize that this game is not rocket science, though it can be tricky. YOU CAN DO THIS!!!

Finally come to your platform well rested, if you are fighting with your love, don't trade because a more well rested focused trader is going to take your money.

In order to trade successfully you must identify your trend, be able to read your chart, wait for proper market set-ups, recognize reversal patterns, have confidence in your ability to trade successfully and be focus. My dear Friend, never stop learning and growing the market is always teaching a new lesson

You know where to reach my if you have any questions and I will help you all that I can, I promise (^_^). It will be ok, we can do this together.

HANG IN THERE!


This blog is not in anyway an enticement or solicitation to trade in the Forex Market. These tips are for informational purposes only and are not to be substituted for legal advice or council. I have written this blog in hopes that it will help you to avoid some of the terrifying pitfalls I had in the Forex Market before I learned better.