Seb
الثلاثاء، 18 ديسمبر 2012
GBP/USD H1 Update
Two levels to finish this wave 1: 61% or 100% Fibo Projection.
Both levels on chart.
Seb
Both levels on chart.
Seb
Crude Oil H4 Update
The dominant cycle on Crude seems to work very well here. As per indication the top should be in place for wave 3 and 61%Fibo Ret level should't be breached.
Overall count is bearish but lack of implulsive development put this labeling into question if SUPPLY level is broken to the upside.
Seb
Overall count is bearish but lack of implulsive development put this labeling into question if SUPPLY level is broken to the upside.
Seb
NASDAQ Futures H4 Update
Let's continue with this Leading Diagonal Wave 1 count and see where it gets us.
Seb
Seb
EUR/USD M30 & H1 Update
Last Fib Time Cluster worked well as a resistance in time but price did not make new high and it looks like this clusters were just a general resistance/support levels in time because EUR/USD is still in narrow correction cycle.
I've decided to move wave 3 at the top of the spike because wave b seems to be out of place: too short and much of an impulse looking wave really. Anyway it is hard to say due to the gap. Default treatment of the gap for me is as an impulsive wave and this is why alt:5 label is there on the top as well.
Nevertheless, I expect some kind of spike to the upside that I will treat as a wave 5 before some serious coorection will take place.
Seb
I've decided to move wave 3 at the top of the spike because wave b seems to be out of place: too short and much of an impulse looking wave really. Anyway it is hard to say due to the gap. Default treatment of the gap for me is as an impulsive wave and this is why alt:5 label is there on the top as well.
Nevertheless, I expect some kind of spike to the upside that I will treat as a wave 5 before some serious coorection will take place.
Seb
الاثنين، 17 ديسمبر 2012
Al Korelin Interview
Did an interview with Al Korelin on the weekend. Covered China, the challenge ETFs present to gold mining shares, World Gold Council's purpose in creating the ETFs and institutional demand the Perth Mint is seeing and how we are only in phase two of a bull market.
S&P500 H1 & H4 Update
Looks like very simple wave 2 correction is done inc. another trend line test.
Seb
Seb
EUR/AUD H1 + H4 Update
This is tricki one: so far wave (b) of wave too retraced more than expected but it is still manageable and it strats too look like some kind of Irregular Flat correction.
This is why there are two count for this pair: H1 count is abc with wave c as double three correction
and H4 count that is a extended wave c in five waves correction.
So far not very much tradeable enviroment for a decent R/R ratio.
Seb
This is why there are two count for this pair: H1 count is abc with wave c as double three correction
and H4 count that is a extended wave c in five waves correction.
So far not very much tradeable enviroment for a decent R/R ratio.
Seb
USD/JPY H4 & Daily Update
This pair broke the upper SUPPLY level area but the latest wave might be just the begining of larger scale wave 5 extension (alt:1). It is hard to say right now because the openinig gap.
There is a technical level resistance area, WS1 and 61% Fibo Ret of last swing, all in one orange rectangle area of 82.82 - 83.03.
Take care,
Seb
There is a technical level resistance area, WS1 and 61% Fibo Ret of last swing, all in one orange rectangle area of 82.82 - 83.03.
Take care,
Seb
GBP/JPY H1 Update
After deeper consideration I have decided to re-label the count one degree higher and put wave 4 into the shape of Trangle corection - a little change to latest count.
Seb
Seb
GBP/USD H1 & H4 Update
If You just tried to trade my last signal in this pair - the Running Flat Possibility Area 1 - right now You should be 125pips in profit.
Right now I will count this as impulsive progression until proven otherwise.
The general idea is to buy the dips, like now: the pair might be soon in wave 2 correction mode, we need one more push up to finish wave 5 I guess.
Please notice the bearish divergence as well.
More TPI to come.
Take care,
Seb
Right now I will count this as impulsive progression until proven otherwise.
The general idea is to buy the dips, like now: the pair might be soon in wave 2 correction mode, we need one more push up to finish wave 5 I guess.
Please notice the bearish divergence as well.
More TPI to come.
Take care,
Seb
EUR/USD H1 Update
Fibo Time Clusters for possible wave 5 ending are located at 17thDec between 16:00 - 17:00 or 01:00 - 03:00.
Seb
Seb
EUR/USD M30, H1, H4 Update
There are two count here: M30 and H1 charts. M30 has all the altermatove labeling on and I trat it as experimental (alt.) count to my main count on H1 - this one is already almost 2 weeks old and works perfectly.
So far the greatest problem in labeling the chart is the recent gap labeling - it can be either wave 5 to the upside or just wave b of a larger wave 4 triangle formation. Upside or downside breakout will clarify the situatin. Invalidation line on chart.
Take care,
Seb
So far the greatest problem in labeling the chart is the recent gap labeling - it can be either wave 5 to the upside or just wave b of a larger wave 4 triangle formation. Upside or downside breakout will clarify the situatin. Invalidation line on chart.
Take care,
Seb
EUR/JPY M30, H1 & Daily Update
Right now on M30 and H1 TF there are two counts with equal value - it is all where wave 4 or (4) has bottomed.
In both cases we got Running Flat wave 4 correction, one smaller degree one bigger degree.
Gap has been filled and that was excellent buying opportunity in aticipation of wave 5 to the upside to finish thge cycle.
On M30 chart any price movement belot 61% Fibo Ret @ 107.94 will invalidate the blue bracket wave count for wave (4) and it will mean that the price had made intermediate top.
On H1 the wave (4) has been done already and wave 3 is the top so far. The price might try to make one more wave up and that would be wave 5 od wave (5). Any movement below 109.91 will invalidate this count and will mean that the top for wave (5) is in place. Please notice that the price still might develop Ending Diagonal wave (5) but anything below 109.50 will make this kind of movement less likely and below 109.02 (low of wave (4)) even less probable.
I still think that higher degree correction is needed, potential target for correction is 108.50 - 108.10.
H4 is another way to count this wave progression, I call it Ultra Bullish count.
Take care,
Seb
PS: More charts on the way.
In both cases we got Running Flat wave 4 correction, one smaller degree one bigger degree.
Gap has been filled and that was excellent buying opportunity in aticipation of wave 5 to the upside to finish thge cycle.
On M30 chart any price movement belot 61% Fibo Ret @ 107.94 will invalidate the blue bracket wave count for wave (4) and it will mean that the price had made intermediate top.
On H1 the wave (4) has been done already and wave 3 is the top so far. The price might try to make one more wave up and that would be wave 5 od wave (5). Any movement below 109.91 will invalidate this count and will mean that the top for wave (5) is in place. Please notice that the price still might develop Ending Diagonal wave (5) but anything below 109.50 will make this kind of movement less likely and below 109.02 (low of wave (4)) even less probable.
I still think that higher degree correction is needed, potential target for correction is 108.50 - 108.10.
H4 is another way to count this wave progression, I call it Ultra Bullish count.
Take care,
Seb
PS: More charts on the way.
الجمعة، 14 ديسمبر 2012
EUR/JPY: What's next?
I'm almost sure EUR/JPY needs a correction.
The levels for corrective wave (4) are on charts.
Please notice that the most common wave (4) corrective pattern is a Triangle so there might be a lot of whipsaws ahead for this pair.
Take care,
Seb
The levels for corrective wave (4) are on charts.
Please notice that the most common wave (4) corrective pattern is a Triangle so there might be a lot of whipsaws ahead for this pair.
Take care,
Seb
Gold XAUUSD Daily Update
After invalidating bullish count , this is what I do expect from Gold, so if You are bullish please take it into considearion
Seb
Seb
Silver XAGUSD H4 Update
Well,
This count has only one way to go after invalidating bullish structure.
Seb
This count has only one way to go after invalidating bullish structure.
Seb
GBP/JPY H1 Update
Either:
wave 4 was qucik and shallow Irregular Flat correction ( rule of alternation to wave 2 apply here perfectly) and next five waves are the final push to the upside and the top for big wave 3
or
latest five waves to the upside are just the first wave of larger wave 5 to come.
Any move higher or lower the current swings will invalidate one of the counts.
Take care,
Seb
wave 4 was qucik and shallow Irregular Flat correction ( rule of alternation to wave 2 apply here perfectly) and next five waves are the final push to the upside and the top for big wave 3
or
latest five waves to the upside are just the first wave of larger wave 5 to come.
Any move higher or lower the current swings will invalidate one of the counts.
Take care,
Seb
GBP/USD H1 Update
First orange rectangle has been hit and first scenario for wave 2 low has been activated. So far not much of impulsive development.
If You traded this You should bank about 40-50 pips.
Seb
If You traded this You should bank about 40-50 pips.
Seb
EUR/USD M30 & H1 Update
The H1 count is the one I'm in favour right now because the impulsive structure is very clear for me.
The M30 count just describes some probabilities as the caount changes when new pattern develops.
Wave B idea does not fit into this count anymore.
So, what's next according to H1 count? Correction. What do we do and why? We BUY the dips into Fibo, Technical Resistance or Pivot levels.
Seb
The M30 count just describes some probabilities as the caount changes when new pattern develops.
Wave B idea does not fit into this count anymore.
So, what's next according to H1 count? Correction. What do we do and why? We BUY the dips into Fibo, Technical Resistance or Pivot levels.
Seb
الخميس، 13 ديسمبر 2012
EUR/USD M30 Update: Very Interesting
Couple of different charts: Running Flat and Triangle.
Time will tell, but overall it looks bullish.
Seb
Time will tell, but overall it looks bullish.
Seb
EUR/USD H1 Update
Again, I've been expecting one more wave to the downside before any rally might resumes but it looks like I missed something: yesterday evening I have labeled wave W and X expecting wave Y to come and finish the cycle of a little more complex wave 4 and this idea would fit the Rule of Alternation.
Altrought, today EUR/USD is at new local high so somewhere there I must have missed a wave. On the other hand it fits alt. count suggesting wave 1 has finished, wave W is first leg of Running Flat correction with very short wave C.
I went down to 5min to see what I did wrong. And it looks like I have missed the obvious: A Triangle wave 4!
There is one count of EUR/USD H1 that I have showed You guys at the begining of the week wuith only bullish option and this is update for it.
I guess wave 1 of this count will end in SUPPLY area, then EUR/USD will begin the correction.
Take care,
Seb
Altrought, today EUR/USD is at new local high so somewhere there I must have missed a wave. On the other hand it fits alt. count suggesting wave 1 has finished, wave W is first leg of Running Flat correction with very short wave C.
I went down to 5min to see what I did wrong. And it looks like I have missed the obvious: A Triangle wave 4!
There is one count of EUR/USD H1 that I have showed You guys at the begining of the week wuith only bullish option and this is update for it.
I guess wave 1 of this count will end in SUPPLY area, then EUR/USD will begin the correction.
Take care,
Seb
EUR/JPY: What's next?
So far all correctiove movements were rather fast, shallow and did not last much in time, so it might be the time for some more complex and time consuming correction - but nothing is certain.
On chart there are two possible levels for wave 4 correction area, as discussed this morning.
Please notice that still the most probable corrective pattern of wave 4 is a triangle so buying the dips of EUR/JPY as along as orange recangle area is not broken down seems to be the way to trade this pair for now.
Take care,
Seb
On chart there are two possible levels for wave 4 correction area, as discussed this morning.
Please notice that still the most probable corrective pattern of wave 4 is a triangle so buying the dips of EUR/JPY as along as orange recangle area is not broken down seems to be the way to trade this pair for now.
Take care,
Seb
SILVER XAGUSD Daily Update
Main count has been invalidated so alternative count is in play. More weakness ahead.
Seb
Seb
S&P500 H1 & H4 Update
Bullish count has been invalidated and the recent leg up turned out to be in three waves abc making a top of wave 2 into 1438.75 level.
Nice impulsive progression so far, we will see what will happen next.
Seb
Nice impulsive progression so far, we will see what will happen next.
Seb
AUD/USD H4 Update
Trend line test from the upside and three waves down suggest more strenght comming if trend line not broken through.
Seb
Seb
الاشتراك في:
الرسائل (Atom)